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For years, wide receivers were considered safer first-round picks than running backs. That narrative did not hold true in 2024. Several high-profile WRs missed time or underperformed, while RBs had an unusually healthy and productive season.

That shift has created a 2025 draft trend in which RBs are being pushed higher than WRs. I’m not fully buying it. In fact, I like drafting toward the back end of the first round this year so I can scoop up elite WRs who are falling due to this RB push.

Once you get past the top 10 WRs, things get murkier. The WR2 range is full of questions, talented players, but with role uncertainty, injury concerns, or shifting offensive situations. My approach is to grab one or two elite WRs early, then pivot away from the position for a while.

The middle/late tiers are where I like to strike again, targeting upside plays that could crack weekly starter status. Every year, rookie receivers prove to be major contributors, and while I may not know which ones will hit, I want to take multiple shots. And while there’s a clear drop-off from the elite tier, the position is surprisingly deep this year; you can still make a case for intriguing options well into the WR40 range.

Tier 1 – The One-Man Show
I usually avoid opening my tiers with a group of one; it feels like asking for variance to bite me, but Ja’Marr Chase earns the exception. He’s coming off a triple-championship season, is still in his physical prime, has a stable quarterback and offensive system, and checks every box you could want.

While I like several receivers in the next tier, none present a compelling enough case to leapfrog Chase. The combination of age, production, and situation makes him the safest and highest-upside WR on the board. There’s always volatility in fantasy football, but here the answer is simple: Chase at the top.

WR 1: Ja’Marr Chase (Cin)

Reasons for Optimism:
Chase was the undisputed king of the wide receivers last season, outscoring the WR2 by a jaw-dropping 85 points in PPR leagues. At just 25 years old, he’s right in the heart of his prime and playing with Joe Burrow, a quarterback he’s had chemistry with since their LSU days. The Bengals’ high-powered offense should again find itself in plenty of shootouts thanks to a defense projected to be subpar, and Chase is the unquestioned alpha in the passing game. He’s the rare receiver who can win on short, intermediate, and deep routes, giving him both a safe weekly floor and the kind of ceiling that breaks fantasy matchups. He even secured the receiving triple crown last year (receptions, yards, touchdowns), showing just how dominant he can be.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The most significant risk isn’t Chase himself, it’s Joe Burrow’s health. Burrow has missed significant time in multiple seasons, and Cincinnati’s offensive line doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in keeping him upright. There’s also the quirky fact that the WR1 spot has been held by a different player in each of the last seven years, a reminder that repeating at the top is historically difficult.

Final Verdict:
Chase is as safe a first-round pick as you’ll find. Even if he doesn’t repeat as the overall WR1, the floor is still elite WR1 production, and the ceiling is breaking fantasy football again. Burrow feeds him a massive target share, mixes in plenty of easy completions, and lets Chase’s big-play ability shine. There’s nothing in the numbers to knock him; only bad injury luck could keep him from another monster season.

Tier 2 – The Six-Pack of Studs

I’ve got a bigger Tier 2 than most rankings you’ll find. While I have my personal preferences, I can make a case for any of the following six players to be taken as the 2nd receiver off the board, and I can see a path for all of them to finish as the WR1 this season. Now, for some, that scenario is much less likely than for others, but it’s at least conceivable. This entire group is filled with studs who belong in the first round, and if you land one, you’re starting your draft from a position of strength.

WR 2: CeeDee Lamb (Dal)

Reasons for Optimism:
I feel confident saying that the absolute floor for CeeDee Lamb is WR8, which is pretty good when you think about it. Even in what was a nightmare season, Lamb still finished as the WR8 in PPR formats last season. He gutted through a shoulder injury for much of the year and lost Dak Prescott in Week 9, leaving him to catch passes from Cooper Rush down the stretch. The last time he had a full season with Dak, Lamb racked up 135 receptions and finished as the overall WR1. At just 26 years old, he’s still firmly in his prime and more than capable of producing another season like that. The Cowboys also added George Pickens, the most talented receiver Lamb has ever lined up with. While Pickens will command some targets, his presence could just as easily lead to lighter coverage for Lamb to exploit.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Pickens’ arrival could shave a bit off Lamb’s target share, especially if Dallas commits to spreading the ball around more. Prescott’s health is also a constant variable; another injury to the quarterback could quickly drop Lamb’s ceiling.

Final Verdict:
He’s proven he can overcome injuries, both his own and his quarterback’s, and still produce at a high level. If Dak stays healthy and Pickens draws attention away, Lamb could post another monster year. He’s one of the safest and most consistent picks in the first round who also has arguably the highest upside.

WR3: Justin Jefferson (Min)

Reasons for Optimism:
Jefferson isn’t just good, he’s great. He’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory and, in terms of pure talent, might be the best receiver in football. If you swapped him onto the Bengals, he could match or even surpass Ja’Marr Chase’s production. Aside from his injury-shortened 2023, Jefferson has finished as a top-six wide receiver every season of his career. He plays in a well-designed offense with a coaching staff that knows he’s the focal point, and he’ll be funneled a massive target share regardless of who’s under center. 

Reasons for Pessimism:
For the first time in his career, Jefferson will be catching passes from a quarterback who has never thrown an NFL pass, J.J. McCarthy. That creates a level of uncertainty you don’t usually have to experience with a top 5 overall pick. The Vikings also have Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson as established weapons, which could limit the absolute monster target numbers Jefferson posted in past years. If McCarthy struggles, Jefferson’s ceiling could take a hit.

Final Verdict:
There’s a case to fade Jefferson slightly in favor of elite running backs or receivers in better QB situations, but dropping him too far feels reckless. His talent, role, and track record make him a strong bet for another top-tier season, even with some volatility at quarterback. Remember, we had these same questions about Sam Darnold last year, and Jefferson finished as the WR2. The floor is still WR1 production, and if McCarthy is even average as a rookie, Jefferson could once again challenge for the top overall spot.

WR 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det)

Reasons for Optimism:
Few players in fantasy football combine safety and upside like Amon-Ra. He’s finished as the WR3 in back-to-back seasons, posting 115+ receptions and 11+ touchdowns each year. Jared Goff looks his way in all situations, making him one of the most dependable target hogs in the league. Even if the Lions’ offense regresses a bit from last year’s highs, St. Brown’s target volume should remain rock solid; any drop-off would hurt secondary pieces more than him. He’s a complete receiver who can line up anywhere, and his relentless work ethic has translated into consistent elite production.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson does add some uncertainty to the Lions offensive identity. St. Brown’s touchdown totals could dip if the unit stalls more often. He also underwent an offseason procedure, though all indications are that he’s fully healthy heading into Week 1. While his role is secure, the lack of truly elite downfield usage compared to some other WR1s slightly caps his week-winning spike potential.

Final Verdict:
St. Brown is one of the safest first-round picks in the game, with a high floor built on massive target volume and proven production. Even if the Lions take a small step back, he’s still poised to rack up receptions on a good offense, keeping him firmly in the elite tier. Pencil him in for another WR1 finish and sleep easy knowing you’ve got one of the most bankable fantasy assets in football.

WR 5: Nico Collins (Hou)

Reasons for Optimism:
Collins is firmly on the shortlist of players with overall WR1 upside. Despite playing just 12 games last season, he still topped 1,000 yards and scored seven touchdowns, and before his injury, he was pacing like a legitimate contender for the overall WR1 spot. He did this in a Bobby Slowik offense that was wildly inconsistent and ultimately led to Slowik’s firing. If C.J. Stroud returns to his rookie-year form, Collins could blow past last year’s production. With Stefon Diggs gone to New England and Tank Dell likely out for the season, the Texans’ passing game will run almost entirely through him. Second-round rookie Jayden Higgins will contribute, but make no mistake, this is Collins’ show.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The primary concern is durability. Collins has yet to play a full season, though he’s also avoided any catastrophic injuries. There’s also some volatility in trusting Stroud to rebound after his sophomore slump, and while Collins is the alpha, the Texans’ offensive changes create some unknowns in how the passing attack will operate week to week.

Final Verdict:
If everything clicks, Collins has the talent, role, and opportunity to lead all receivers in fantasy points. He’s a legitimate first-round option who can be drafted as your WR1 with confidence, knowing the Texans’ offense will run through him. If Stroud bounces back, Collins could deliver a career year and be the league-winner you brag about in December.

WR 6: Malik Nabers (NYG)

Reasons for Optimism:
As a rookie, Nabers saw a jaw-dropping 11.3 targets per game, good for a league-best 34.9% target share. Despite missing two games, he set the all-time rookie record for targets, turning them into 109 receptions for over 1,200 yards. Even more impressive? He did it catching passes from Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle. With New York lacking other proven playmakers and projected to play from behind in most games, Nabers should once again be peppered with targets, and his ability to create big plays means those opportunities will translate to fantasy production.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The Giants’ quarterback situation remains a glaring question mark. Russell Wilson, at this stage, doesn’t represent much of an upgrade, and he’s unlikely to start all 17 games. Behind him is rookie Jaxson Dart, an unknown at the NFL level. There’s also the possibility of Jameis Winston getting snaps, which would ironically be the best-case scenario for Nabers’ fantasy value. His QB room is far worse than that of other WRs in this draft range, and New York’s offensive line issues could exacerbate that.

Final Verdict:
Nabers is a target-hogging alpha who already proved he can dominate regardless of quarterback play. While the instability under center lowers his floor, the sheer volume he commands keeps him firmly in the WR1 conversation. If Dart clicks, Wilson surprises, or Winston gets under center, Nabers has the potential to challenge the very top of the position. You might have to endure some ugly Giants games, but the fantasy results will remain.

WR 7: Puka Nacua (LAR)

Reasons for Optimism:
Nacua’s 2024 season started slowly as he played through a lingering PCL injury. Still, once healthy in the second half, his usage exploded; he posted a 33% target share in the second half of the season, second only to Ja’Marr Chase. Even with Davante Adams joining the Rams this offseason, the offense is highly condensed, meaning both could sustain strong target totals. Nacua already proved in his rookie year that he can thrive alongside another elite receiver, and this year he’ll enter as the clear No. 1 ahead of Adams thanks to his exceptional rapport with Matthew Stafford. He’s young, talented, and operating in a scheme ideally suited to his skill set.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Stafford’s age and health are a looming concern. The veteran quarterback is coming into camp with back issues, a problem that’s plagued him for years. If he misses time or plays at less than full strength, Nacua’s value would take a significant hit. Nacua also has a playing style that invites contact; he dives, fights for every yard, and ends up on the injury report often, even if he usually plays through it. These bumps and bruises can add up over the course of a year.

Final Verdict:
When healthy, Nacua is one of the NFL’s most heavily used receivers in an offense that feeds him high-value targets. His chemistry with Stafford and comfort in Sean McVay’s system give him a combination of strong floor with an upside as high as anyone at the position. You’ll need to stomach some injury risk, both his own and his quarterback’s, but Nacua could be one of the most productive receivers in football if things break right.

Tier 3 – Rock-Solid WR1s

This is a small tier made up of players I don’t really have any questions about. They’re all studs, and I’d feel great with any of them as my WR1. The only difference between them and the guys in Tier 2 is that I don’t quite see a path for them to truly explode into the overall WR1 in fantasy football.

That said, they’re still great, and mostly safe options you should be excited to draft. And if you somehow land one of these players as your WR2? That’s the kind of luxury that can win you a league.

WR8: Drake London (Atl)

Reasons for Optimism:
London finally broke out in 2024, finishing as the WR6 after escaping Arthur Smith’s run-heavy scheme. Now he enters the season with what could be the best quarterback play of his career. While Michael Penix Jr. is still an unknown, London was the overall WR1 in the three games Penix started last season. Penix has shown a willingness to push the ball downfield and heavily target his best weapons, a trait that could translate to an extreme workload for London in a more vertical offense. Even if Penix isn’t elite, the bar to clear is low after years of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and post-achilles injury Kirk Cousins. London’s size, prime-age athleticism, and ability to win both downfield and on in-breaking routes over the middle make him a strong candidate for top-tier usage.

Reasons for Pessimism:
There’s still uncertainty surrounding the Falcons’ overall offensive identity with a rookie quarterback. Penix dealt with injuries in college, and if he misses time, London’s outlook could dim. The offense may not be high-scoring overall, and Bijan Robinson’s heavy involvement in the red zone could cap London’s touchdown upside, even though he was tied for fourth in red-zone targets among WRs last season.

Final Verdict:
London’s 2024 breakout might just be the beginning. His size, skill set, and potential quarterback upgrade put him firmly in the WR1 conversation. While the offense carries some unknowns and touchdown variance is a factor, London’s volume, floor, and big-play upside make him one of the most exciting young receivers in fantasy football this year.

WR 9: Brian Thomas Jr. (Jax)

Reasons for Optimism:
Finishing as the WR4 as a rookie is already impressive, but doing so with the big-play flair Thomas brings is even more notable. At 6'3" with elite speed, he quickly established himself as Jacksonville’s go-to receiver and a constant threat to score from anywhere on the field. His second-half surge showcased his ability to separate and win downfield, and he’ll enter 2025 as the Jaguars’ primary weapon. The arrival of new head coach Liam Coen should bring offensive improvement, and Thomas’ skill set is tailor-made for an aggressive passing approach. Even with rookie Travis Hunter joining the mix, Thomas is firmly entrenched as the top option.

Reasons for Pessimism:
While the new offensive system could be an upgrade, it also introduces some uncertainty. Thomas’ breakout came largely with Mac Jones under center, not Trevor Lawrence, which at least raises the question of how the chemistry will translate. Hunter’s presence could siphon some targets if he plays meaningful offensive snaps. Touchdown regression is also a possibility after Thomas capitalized on his big plays at an elite rate last season.

Final Verdict:
Thomas is a size-speed nightmare who’s already proven he can produce WR1 numbers, and now he gets an offensive overhaul that could make him even more dangerous. While there are a few unknowns with quarterback chemistry and target competition, the talent and role are too strong to ignore. Even if his touchdown rate dips, improved offensive efficiency should keep him firmly as an elite fantasy receiver.

WR 10: A.J. Brown (Phi)

Reasons for Optimism:
On talent alone, Brown belongs firmly in the elite tier of wide receivers. He’s still in his prime and has already posted WR4 and WR8 finishes in previous seasons with Philadelphia. Last year’s dip in production wasn’t about skill; it was about circumstance. The Eagles threw the fewest passes in the NFL and funneled their offense through Saquon Barkley. With a more challenging schedule ahead, defensive pieces departing, and natural regression to the mean, Philadelphia is likely to throw more in 2025. Brown plays in one of the most efficient offenses in football, giving him a steady diet of scoring chances, and if his targets rebound even slightly, he could smash his current draft cost.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The Eagles still boast an offense built around multiple alphas, with multiple options commanding their share of looks. Barkley’s presence likely means a strong commitment to the run remains. And while Brown has been durable overall, his physical playing style does invite the occasional nagging injury that can slow him down.

Final Verdict:
Brown is too good for last year’s WR finish to become his new norm. The talent, efficiency, and situation still point toward top-8 upside, and if the Eagles pass even moderately more this year, he could easily push back into the elite fantasy WR range. He’s a strong bet to outperform his ADP and could be a draft-day steal if the passing volume bounces back even slightly.

Tier 4 – High-End Upside, But With Baggage

Now we get into the first tier, where real question marks start to pop up. They're not necessarily glaring concerns, but there’s at least a plausible scenario where I could end up disappointed with how high I drafted these guys, whether that’s due to injury, age, offensive scheme, or just plain circumstance.

That being said, every player in this tier still has the talent and a not-so-hard-to-imagine path to finishing as a true WR1 for your team. The ceiling is still there, you just have to be comfortable living with a bit more volatility to get it.

WR 11: Tyreek Hill (Mia)

Reasons for Optimism:
Hill’s résumé in Miami is unmatched, 1,700+ yards in both of his first two seasons, including a 2023 campaign where he nearly challenged the single-season receiving record despite the Dolphins throwing the third-fewest passes in second halves (thanks to blowouts). If you believe last year’s downturn was simply an aberration caused by a perfect storm, a nagging wrist injury, Tua Tagovailoa missing time, and general drama that started with a week 1 arrest, then Hill offers tremendous value. Healthy and fully engaged, he’s one of the few receivers who can single-handedly tilt a fantasy season.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Hill is now 31, and speed-based receivers historically tend to decline quickly once age and injuries start to stack up. His production is tied directly to Tua’s health, which is always a variable. There’s also the uncertainty surrounding his commitment after last year’s trade request, even if he’s since walked it back. If things go sideways for Miami, internal tension could resurface, potentially affecting his usage and chemistry with the team.

Final Verdict:
Hill is a “you’re either in or you’re out” pick. The upside is undeniable, legitimate league-winning potential if the stars align, but the risk profile is equally steep. Hill is a worthy gamble if you’re swinging for the fences in your draft. Just know you’re walking a tightrope between an elite WR1 season and the beginnings of a decline.

WR 12: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea)

Reasons for Optimism:
The 2023 first-round pick broke out last season, hauling in 100 receptions for over 1,100 yards while commanding a strong 24% target share. This year, the runway is wide open. DK Metcalf was traded, and Tyler Lockett was released, clearing the way for JSN to take over as the undisputed WR1. The added volume potential is massive, and with Sam Darnold under center, there’s precedent for him supporting elite fantasy seasons (see: Justin Jefferson in 2024). JSN’s route-running savvy and ability to win at all levels of the field make him a strong candidate to make the leap into true alpha territory.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Seattle’s offense will look different under new OC Klint Kubiak, who is expected to lean more on the run. While Darnold has shown he can feed a WR1, he’s still not a proven and safe Quarterback, which could cap JSN’s scoring opportunities. There’s also a little uncertainty about how quickly the new scheme will gel and whether JSN’s breakout volume will be enough to offset a potentially slower-paced attack.

Final Verdict:
JSN has both the opportunity and talent to push for a WR1 finish in 2025. The path to a massive target share is clear, and his floor remains high even if the new offense skews more run-heavy. If he adapts quickly to Kubiak’s scheme, he could be one of this year’s best investments at wide receiver, though he’s no longer coming at a bargain price.

WR 13: Ladd McConkey (LAC)

Reasons for Optimism:
McConkey’s rookie year was nothing short of stellar. He finished in the 98th percentile against press coverage, second only to Odell Beckham Jr. among rookie receivers in the past decade, and quickly cemented himself as Justin Herbert’s top option moving forward. His efficiency was off the charts, finishing as the WR18 in PPR despite averaging just seven targets per game (33rd among WRs). With Keenan Allen now in the fold but well past his prime, McConkey should remain the focal point of the passing attack, and another leap in Year 2 is firmly in play.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The Chargers’ offensive philosophy under Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman is firmly run-first, slow-paced, and likely to stay that way. This was reinforced in the offseason by drafting a running back in the first round and signing Najee Harris in free agency. Even as the WR1, McConkey will likely have fewer opportunities than other receivers drafted in his range, which caps his ceiling. Justin Herbert’s four-INT playoff loss also reinforced the team’s reluctance to open things up through the air, making a massive jump in volume less likely.

Final Verdict:
McConkey is a highly efficient receiver tied to a top-tier quarterback, and that’s a combination that rarely fails. While the offensive scheme limits his volume ceiling, his talent and chemistry with Herbert make him a strong bet for weekly consistency and the potential for spike weeks. If the Chargers pass more than expected, McConkey could really go to a new level, but in a run-heavy environment, he profiles as a high-floor, moderate-ceiling WR2 with room for growth in Year 2.

WR 14: Tee Higgins (Cin)

Reasons for Optimism:
Higgins reminded everyone of his talent in 2024, finishing as the WR4 in points per game and earning a massive contract from the Bengals. As Ja’Marr Chase’s running mate in Cincinnati’s high-octane offense, Higgins benefits from lighter coverage while still commanding a 20+% target share. His size and ball skills make him a dangerous red-zone weapon, and he routinely produces highlight-reel catches. If Chase were to miss time, Higgins’ value would skyrocket into the elite WR1 tier. With Joe Burrow favored to lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns, Higgins should be on the receiving end of plenty of big plays and scoring opportunities.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Durability has been a recurring theme; Higgins has only played a full season twice in his five-year career and has never topped 75 receptions in a season. While the Bengals’ offense is elite, it’s hard to envision it improving significantly on last year’s numbers, which may cap Higgins’ ceiling as he is still the WR2 on his own team. His production can be spiky, with occasional quiet weeks when Chase dominates the volume.

Final Verdict:
Higgins is one of the best WR2s in football, both in real life and fantasy. He’s capable of elite numbers when on the field, especially in shootouts, and remains a strong weekly starter with week-winning upside. The biggest question is whether he can stay healthy long enough to finally put together a full season of top-tier production. In Cincinnati’s pass-heavy, high-scoring environment, that possibility alone makes him worth the investment.

WR 15: Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ari)

Reasons for Optimism:
Harrison’s rookie season may have fallen short of sky-high expectations, but it was far from a flop. He posted 885 yards and 8 touchdowns on 116 targets, commanding a healthy 23% target share despite operating in an offense that rarely schemed touches for him. Few plays were designed to get him the ball at the line of scrimmage, yet he still flashed big-play ability and had multiple spike weeks. The Cardinals also clearly believe in him; they spent a top pick on Harrison last year despite having the option to trade it to multiple QB-needy teams. That kind of investment shows they don’t just like him; they see him as a long-term cornerstone. By all accounts, he’s been a great presence in the locker room, and second-year receivers who flash upside as rookies often take big leaps in their sophomore years. If Arizona makes even modest adjustments to feature him more, Harrison has legitimate breakout potential.

Reasons for Pessimism:
While the talent is undeniable, there’s no guarantee Arizona changes how they use him. The offense could remain similar to last year’s, with limited creativity in getting Harrison easy touches. The Cardinals also don’t necessarily have to force-feed him if they spread the ball around more, and another season of middling offensive efficiency could keep him from reaching his ceiling.

Final Verdict:
Last year’s draft price was steep; this year’s is much more palatable. Harrison still profiles as an elite talent with a more straightforward path to returning value, and if his usage improves even slightly, a true breakout is on the table. He’s a strong WR2 target with WR1 upside, and a much better bet to pay off in 2025 than he was as a rookie.

Tier 5 – Safe, Talented… but Capped

Tier 5 is made up of highly talented players who could be WR1s if their circumstances were different, but due to age, team dynamics, or established roles, I don’t see those circumstances likely changing.

They feel relatively safe to me, but they’re “safe” in the sense that they’ll give you steady production without much likelihood of a massive breakout. These are the kinds of players who make you think they should be doing more than they actually are.

That said, they’re excellent WR2 options who can keep your lineup stable while you take bigger swings elsewhere.

WR 16: Garrett Wilson (NYJ)

Reasons for Optimism:
Wilson’s talent isn’t in question; the Jets made that clear by giving him a top-of-the-market contract extension, signaling how highly he’s valued across the league. He’s endured a revolving door of quarterbacks in New York, from Zach Wilson, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle to a diminished Aaron Rodgers, yet has still posted three straight 1,000-yard seasons, including a career-high 7 touchdowns last year. He’s already averaged 156 targets per season and enters 2025 as one of the favorites to lead the league in targets, given the Jets’ complete lack of other proven receiving threats. While the move to Justin Fields under center brings some skepticism, it’s worth remembering that DJ Moore posted a career-high 1,300+ yards with Fields as his QB in Chicago. If Wilson’s target share jumps into the 30–35% range, a Malik Nabers–type volume season is within reach.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The Jets’ offense as a whole remains a question mark, and poor quarterback play could limit Wilson’s efficiency. While Fields is an upgrade over some of Wilson’s past QB situations, he’s still unproven as a consistent passer over a full season. The team’s scoring potential is also limited, which could cap touchdown upside even with elite target volume.

Final Verdict:
Wilson has proven he can produce numbers despite chaos under center, and the sheer volume he’s set to receive gives him one of the highest floors in fantasy. The ceiling is tied to whether Fields can elevate the offense, but even in a middling attack, Wilson’s talent and workload give him a rock-solid floor with the chance to outperform his ADP if things click within the offense.

WR 17: Mike Evans (TB)

Reasons for Optimism:
Evans continues to defy time and expectations, finishing as a WR1 in six of the last seven years and logging an NFL-record 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons. He’s also scored 11+ touchdowns in four of the previous five years. Even entering his age-32 season, his advanced metrics remain elite, posting 2.33 and 2.52 yards per route run over the past two years, both in line with his prime and among the best in the league. Few receivers are as reliable in the red zone, and with Tampa Bay’s offense projecting to remain strong, Evans is once again one of the safest bets for double-digit scores.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Before Chris Godwin’s injury last year, Evans wasn’t producing at quite the same clip, and his usage surged largely out of necessity. With Godwin coming back, second-year WR Jalen McMillan, first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka, and capable pass-catching backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving, the target competition is stiff. At 32, the Bucs may also be more careful with Evans’ workload. On top of that, Baker Mayfield is due for some touchdown regression, which could slightly dent Evans’ scoring output.

Final Verdict:
Betting against Evans has been a losing proposition for over a decade, and there’s little reason to think he can’t be a strong fantasy producer again. While there are signs that his upside could be capped compared to other players in his draft range, his combination of consistency, red-zone dominance, and role in a good offense makes him an ideal high-floor WR2, with room for more if injuries open up targets again.

WR 18: Davante Adams (LAR)

Reasons for Optimism:
Adams may be 32, but his game isn’t built purely on athleticism. His dominance comes from his quickness off the line, elite route running, and a massive catch radius, traits that age far better than pure speed. At 31 last season, he thrived down the stretch and proved he’s not over the hill. The Rams clearly believe he still has plenty left, parting ways with franchise icon Cooper Kupp to sign Adams to a sizable contract. While Puka Nacua will be the WR1, Sean McVay’s offense has shown it can support two high-end fantasy receivers, and Adams could command a 20–25% target share with legitimate boom-week potential in a condensed passing attack.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Adams’ resurgence last year coincided with playing alongside longtime friend Aaron Rodgers, and now he’s learning a new system and working with a new quarterback at an advanced age. Matthew Stafford has dealt with a back injury throughout camp, limiting his time to build chemistry with Adams. If Stafford misses time or continues to be limited, Adams’ fantasy value could take a significant hit.

Final Verdict:
Adams’ skill set gives him a better shot than most aging receivers to stay productive, and the Rams’ offense should give him enough volume to remain a weekly starter. There’s risk tied to health and chemistry, but if Stafford stays upright and Adams settles in quickly, he could be one of 2025’s best veteran values at wide receiver.

WR 19: DJ Moore (Chi)

Reasons for Optimism:
Moore has been one of the most consistently targeted receivers in the NFL, averaging a 27.8% target rate over the past four seasons across multiple teams and a revolving door of quarterbacks. Despite working with subpar offenses for much of his career, he’s shown he can produce at a high level, finishing as the WR6 two seasons ago. This year, he benefits from a new offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, whose scheme should boost efficiency and create more scoring opportunities. With Caleb Williams entering Year 2, there’s a real chance the Bears’ passing attack takes a big leap forward, giving Moore the environment to return to elite fantasy production.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The end of Moore’s 2024 season raised some red flags, as his body language and effort appeared inconsistent. While Ben Johnson should improve the offense, he’s also a new play-caller who may not be tied to Moore as the focal point. Chicago added significant receiving talent in rookie WR Luther Burden III and rookie TE Colston Loveland, and still has second-year receiver Rome Odunze, which could spread targets more evenly. Moore also wasn’t very efficient last year despite substantial volume, and if his role shifts in a more balanced passing attack, his ceiling could be capped.

Final Verdict:
Moore has the talent, history of heavy usage, and potential offensive improvement to push back toward the WR1 tier, but the combination of increased target competition and possible role changes introduces risk. If Caleb Williams develops quickly and Johnson schemes Moore into premium looks, he could smash his draft cost, but there’s a broader range of outcomes here than in previous years.

WR 20: Terry McLaurin (Was)

Reasons for Optimism:
McLaurin is one of the most consistent receivers in fantasy football, posting between 77 and 87 receptions and between 1,002 and 1,191 yards in each of his last five seasons. At 29, there’s no reason to think he’s over the hill. The big change last year was his touchdown production; he scored 13 times after never topping 5 in any of his previous four seasons. While regression is expected, a strong offense led by Jayden Daniels could keep him closer to double digits than to 5. With no other receiver on the roster close to his talent level, McLaurin should remain the focal point of the passing attack and command the majority of targets.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Touchdown regression is likely, especially with Daniels’ ability to run for scores in the red zone. McLaurin is also in the midst of a holdout for a new contract, and while reports suggest it should be resolved before the season, any missed time could impact early-season chemistry. The addition of Deebo Samuel could eat into target share, though Samuel’s own age and injury history limit how much of a threat he truly is.

Final Verdict:
McLaurin offers a high floor and week-to-week reliability, making him an ideal WR2 for fantasy rosters. While his ceiling isn’t elite, the combination of steady yardage, strong target share, and potential for above-average touchdowns in a really good offense makes him a safe and comforting pick in the middle rounds.

Tier 6 – Swing-for-the-Fences WR2s

This tier is the last group of receivers I’d feel okay slotting in as my WR2. They’re less stable than the previous tier, whether that’s because of quarterback play, injury history, or inconsistent usage, but you could argue they bring more upside.

They’re the definition of “risk/reward” picks: if things break right, they could outproduce their draft slot in a big way. If they don’t, you’ll need depth at the position to cover the volatility.

WR 21: Tetairoa McMillan (Car)

Reasons for Optimism:
McMillan might not be getting the hype of last year’s first-round rookie wideouts, but he’s an intriguing bet, especially for those who like targeting rookie WRs with league-winning potential. Drafted 8th overall, he brings size, polished route-running, and the skill set to immediately step in as Bryce Young’s primary target. In Dave Canales’ offense, McMillan could be used in a Mike Evans–type role, giving him a path to high-value red-zone opportunities and a strong target share right out of the gate. Rookie WRs often turn it up later in the season, see Brian Thomas Jr. last year, making McMillan a potential difference-maker down the stretch.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The Panthers’ offense is still far from elite, and while Bryce Young had a late-season resurgence in 2024, he’s far from a proven commodity. Carolina’s passing volume may be limited if they lean on a more balanced or run-heavy approach, which could cap McMillan’s weekly ceiling. The lack of offensive firepower around him might also mean more defensive attention which could be tough to deal with as a rookie.

Final Verdict:
McMillan has the draft capital, talent, and opportunity to produce right away, with the potential to explode late in the season as many rookie receivers do. I suggest targeting McMillan if he falls in your draft. If not, you can pivot to other later-round rookie receivers, as he isn’t a sure option (no rookie truly is). What’s nice is that you won’t have to pay the premium draft capital that last year’s top rookie receivers commanded. While Carolina’s offense and quarterback play keep him from being a sure thing, he’s exactly the kind of low-cost upside swing who can turn into a fantasy playoff difference-maker if things click.

WR 22: George Pickens (Dal)

Reasons for Optimism:
Pickens has always been a bit of a wildcard on and off the field, but his environment was the main reason to fade him in fantasy until now. He’s dealt with lackluster quarterback play and, perhaps worse, was stuck in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense, where a “high” target share still meant just seven looks per game. Now in Dallas, away from Smith and paired with the best quarterback of his career in Dak Prescott, Pickens has a legitimate breakout path. The Cowboys project to throw often, and with CeeDee Lamb commanding defensive attention, Pickens could see the lightest coverage of his career. In this role, he could be 2025’s version of Tee Higgins, a high-end WR2 in real life who delivers strong fantasy weeks thanks to big-play ability.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Even as the Steelers’ WR1, Pickens often voiced frustration about his target share, and he’ll now have to adjust to being the clear No. 2 option behind Lamb. If he struggles with that role or the Cowboys spread targets widely, his week-to-week floor could be shaky. While the situation is vastly improved, Pickens must still prove he can deliver consistent production in a secondary role.

Final Verdict:
Pickens is a boom-bust receiver with more boom potential than he’s ever had. The change in quarterback, scheme, and role could unlock his best season yet, and his draft price leaves plenty of room for profit if things click. While he may have volatile weeks, his big-play ability makes him an appealing mid-round upside swing, especially if you believe Dallas’ passing game will be as aggressive as it looks on paper.

WR 23: Jameson Williams (Det)

Reasons for Optimism:
After years of injuries and suspensions derailing his development, Williams finally broke out in 2024. Despite missing a couple of weeks, he topped 1,000 yards and flashed the elite speed and playmaking ability that made him a first-round pick. His big-play threat was evident all over the field, and with talk of him being even more involved this year, the hype is real. In Detroit’s high-powered offense, Williams has the potential to deliver massive spike weeks and could truly explode if injuries open up more targets among the Lions’ other playmakers.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Williams’ production last year was still heavily reliant on big plays; he had just 58 receptions, and much of his success came from being schemed open by former OC Ben Johnson. New OC John Morton may not replicate that usage perfectly, and Detroit has a deep group of offensive weapons competing for targets. Without a clear plan to boost his volume, Williams’ week-to-week production could be volatile, making him more of a boom-or-bust option.

Final Verdict:
Williams is an explosive talent capable of single-handedly winning a week, but his reliance on deep shots and the Lions’ crowded offense make him a volatile fantasy asset. If he stays healthy for a full season in this elite offense, and especially if injuries force more targets his way, he could take another leap. Just be prepared for an up-and-down ride.

WR 24: Xavier Worthy (KC)

Reasons for Optimism:
Worthy fits the mold of second-year receivers with breakout potential, and his late-season usage suggests a possible leap. He averaged nearly eight targets per game from Week 13 through the Super Bowl and led all Chiefs receivers in every major receiving category. His speed is game-changing, and in an offense run by Patrick Mahomes, there’s a path where Worthy becomes the true WR1, a role that would carry enormous fantasy upside. With Rashee Rice almost certainly suspended for a portion of the year, Worthy has a clear runway to establish himself as Mahomes’ go-to weapon.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Despite the late-season surge, Worthy never topped 80 yards in a regular-season game as a rookie, even with Hollywood Brown and Rice missing significant time. When Rice returns, his target share could dip, especially if Worthy doesn’t prove he can consistently win as a primary option rather than just a schemed-up field stretcher. Many of his rookie-year receptions came on designed touches, and it remains to be seen if he can expand his role into a true every-down alpha.

Final Verdict:
Worthy’s range of outcomes is massive. He could emerge as Mahomes’ No. 1 target and deliver league-winning value, or he could remain a big-play-dependent weapon whose production is inconsistent. His combination of speed, opportunity, and quarterback play makes him worth a mid-round swing, but you should pair him with more stable weekly options to balance the volatility.

WR 25: DK Metcalf (Pit)

Reasons for Optimism:
With George Pickens gone, Metcalf steps in as the undisputed WR1 in Pittsburgh. Even in a run-heavy offense, a 25–30% target share is likely, and that kind of usage on his talent could still produce strong fantasy weeks. There’s at least some precedent for optimism. Aaron Rodgers supported Garrett Wilson to a 1,000-yard season last year and has a history of connecting well with big-bodied perimeter receivers like Davante Adams. If Rodgers stays healthy and the Steelers’ offense leans even slightly more pass-heavy than Arthur Smith’s history suggests, Metcalf could outperform his current draft price.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The offensive environment is filled with potential landmines. Smith’s scheme has historically kept WR1 target totals low. Pickens only saw about seven targets per game last year, and Drake London saw similar volume in 2023 with Atlanta. Rodgers’ advanced age, injury history, and the uncertainty of how his timing meshes with Metcalf’s play style add further risk. Even before this move, Metcalf hadn’t finished inside the top 15 WRs in any of the past three seasons, so his track record suggests a limited ceiling unless multiple things break right.

Final Verdict:

Metcalf’s talent is undeniable, but the combination of offensive philosophy, quarterback risk, and his own recent finishes makes him a tricky early-to-mid-round selection. While he can deliver big weeks, his floor is shakier than many WRs going in the same range. Unless his ADP drops, he’s more of a secondary target for drafters who are willing to embrace the volatility.

Tier 7 – “Proven, But With Baggage”

This is the first group of receivers I really don’t want starting as one of my top two to open the season. They each have a track record of some previous success, but that record comes with some sort of baggage, whether it’s offensive environment, role uncertainty, injuries, suspensions, or volatility.

The common thread is that they’ve all produced at a high level before, so it’s not far-fetched that they could do it again. But there’s enough concern here that I’d rather they be my WR3 or flex option, where their upside can help, but their downside won’t sink my week.

WR 26: Calvin Ridley (Ten)

Reasons for Optimism:
Ridley proved last season that he can still operate as a WR1 on his team, even in a poor offensive environment. Despite catching just 53% of his targets, a byproduct of having Mason Rudolph and Will Levis under center, he still managed over 1,000 yards while commanding the 15th-highest target share in the league. He enters 2025 as Tennessee’s clear top option, and rookie QB Cam Ward will almost certainly lean on him heavily. Suppose Ward proves to be an immediate-impact quarterback. In that case, Ridley has the upside of vaulting into a higher fantasy tier, similar to how C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels elevated their WR1s in recent years.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Ward is still an unknown at the NFL level, and if he struggles, Ridley could again be stuck in an inefficient passing game. While Ridley’s volume is secure, the offense’s scoring potential is questionable, limiting his touchdown ceiling. At 30 years old, he’s also entering the stage of his career where athletic decline can start to show, even if it hasn’t yet.

Final Verdict:
Ridley’s locked-in target share and proven production make him a solid WR3 with WR2 upside. Ridley could be one of the bigger draft-day values if Ward surprises and the Titans’ offense takes a leap. If not, he should still provide steady, startable production that helps hold your lineup together through the season.

WR 27: Courtland Sutton (Den)

Reasons for Optimism:
Sutton may not be the flashiest pick, but he delivered steady value last year, finishing as the WR13 and setting a career high in receptions. He also ranked 6th in the league in red-zone targets, showing his continued value as a scoring threat. Now tied to second-year QB Bo Nix, Sutton benefits from being the clear top receiving option in Denver’s offense. Even if Nix doesn’t take another huge leap forward, his improved play late in 2024 bodes well for Sutton’s consistency. Despite the Broncos adding RJ Harvey, Pat Bryant, and Evan Engram, Sutton should remain the focal point of the passing attack while the rest of the receiving corps rotates in and out.

Reasons for Pessimism:
While Sutton’s role is safe, his upside may be capped. Denver’s passing volume likely won’t be high, and the offense could lean more toward a balanced or run-heavy approach. The additions of Engram, Harvey, and multiple young receivers could also chip away slightly at his target share. Sutton’s value is built more on a steady floor than an explosive ceiling.

Final Verdict:
Sutton is a dependable WR2/WR3 type who should once again deliver solid, if unspectacular, fantasy production. He’s unlikely to be a league-winner, but his combination of secure role, red-zone usage, and connection with Nix gives him a safe floor. He’s the kind of unsexy pick that quietly holds your lineup together week after week.

WR 28: Jaylen Waddle (Mia)

Reasons for Optimism:
Waddle was one of fantasy football’s biggest disappointments in 2024, but that has created the potential for a draft-day steal. In 2022, even with Tyreek Hill as the primary target, Waddle finished as the WR7 and led the league in yards per reception. If Hill shows signs of decline or were to be traded, Waddle would instantly step into a true WR1 role in one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. His speed and big-play ability give him week-winning upside, and with Jonnu Smith gone, freeing up some short-yardage work, Waddle could see an uptick in overall involvement.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The concerns from last year can’t be ignored. Waddle’s production is tied closely to Tua’s health, and if the quarterback goes down, his value could crater. Even with Tua healthy, Waddle is still the second option behind Hill, which limits his target ceiling. While the Dolphins’ offense is efficient, the volatility in both passing volume and Tua’s durability creates a wide range of outcomes.

Final Verdict:
Waddle’s ADP has dipped far enough to make him a worthwhile risk-reward pick. His talent and history of elite production in the same role make him an intriguing buy-low candidate, and the upside is massive if Hill fades or misses time. Just understand that the floor can be low to the point of being unplayable. 

WR 29: DeVonta Smith (Phi)

Reasons for Optimism:
Smith is one of the best WR2s in the league, right there with Tee Higgins in terms of talent and impact. Despite never being the WR1 on his own team, he’s produced multiple fantasy WR2 seasons and even has a top-10 fantasy finish on his résumé. His efficiency and route-running keep him productive, and his ceiling would spike dramatically if A.J. Brown were to miss time. Notably, Smith scored 40% more fantasy points last year when Dallas Goedert was out, showing how much his production benefits from reduced target competition in the middle of the field.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Smith’s situation limits his week-to-week ceiling. Philadelphia’s extreme run-heavy tendencies, Hurts’ high rushing touchdown volume, his clear WR2 role behind Brown, and Goedert’s presence all chip away at his opportunities. Even with elite talent, he’s often fighting for scraps in the red zone, and in a healthy offense, his path to WR1 numbers is narrow.

Final Verdict:
Smith isn’t a target hog in Philadelphia, but his talent and past production keep him firmly in the WR2 conversation. If his draft price stays modest, he’s worth grabbing, especially as an upside play if Brown were to miss time. Just be aware that in a fully healthy Eagles offense, his role caps his ceiling to more of a steady, solid producer than a week-breaking force.

WR 30: Zay Flowers (Bal)

Reasons for Optimism:
Flowers has firmly established himself as the WR1 in Baltimore’s offense, and any way you slice it, that role in one of the league’s most explosive attacks is valuable. Heading into his third season, he’s secure in his spot and should be a lock for around 75 receptions and 1,000 yards. There’s also upside if things break right: Derrick Henry could begin to slow down, Mark Andrews’ future with the team is uncertain, Isaiah Likely hasn’t yet broken out, and DeAndre Hopkins is past his prime.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Flowers’ touchdown production lagged despite Lamar Jackson throwing 41 touchdowns in 2024. Flowers caught only 4 of those 41 touchdowns and saw just seven red-zone targets all season, raising concerns about whether he’ll ever become a true scoring threat in this offense. Without a meaningful role near the goal line, it isn’t easy to project a jump into the elite fantasy tier without a significant shift in usage.

Final Verdict:
Flowers feels like a “draft him at his floor” type of player. You’re likely paying for his baseline production as the Ravens’ WR1, which is still solid. Still, if the red-zone work improves or the passing game evolves to feature him more in scoring situations, there’s a path to exceeding expectations. Even if he doesn’t take that step, you’re still getting steady yardage and volume from the lead receiver in one of football’s most efficient offenses.

WR 31: Chris Olave (NO)

Reasons for Optimism:
Olave’s injury history is well-documented, with at least four reported concussions in his three-year career, but it’s worth noting that before last season, he played 16 and 15 games in his first two years. We’ve seen other players with early injury scares go on to have long, productive careers, so it’s too early to write him off entirely. Olave was the 11th overall pick in the NFL draft for a reason, and he topped 1,000 yards in both of his first two seasons while flashing legitimate big-play ability. At just 25 years old, he should remain the focal point of the Saints’ passing game, and his ADP has dropped enough that he’s now a potential value pick. Positive reports about Kellen Moore’s scheme and Olave’s fit as a deep threat add to the optimism.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The quarterback situation in New Orleans is among the worst in the league, with Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough as the likely options. That severely caps Olave’s upside, especially in terms of touchdown opportunities. The concussion history is a genuine concern, and any new head injury could put his career trajectory in jeopardy. Even with a huge target share, the surrounding offensive limitations realistically prevent him from any true breakout season.

Final Verdict:
Olave remains a talented receiver in his prime with a locked-in role and big-play skills. Still, his combination of injury risk and poor quarterback play/offensive environment makes him more of a calculated gamble than a sure thing. If you can get him at a discount, he’s worth the shot, especially if Moore’s offense can manufacture more deep-ball opportunities. Just be prepared for some volatility and understand that the environment around him limits his ceiling.

WR 32: Jerry Jeudy (Cle)

Reasons for Optimism:
Jeudy is coming off a career-best year in terms of receiving yards, finishing sixth in the NFL thanks mainly to a late-season surge. Once Jameis Winston took over at QB, Jeudy became a target monster, benefiting from Winston’s aggressive downfield style that has made plenty of receivers extremely productive. He’s a talented route runner with good hands. If one of Cleveland’s quarterbacks overachieves, he could return value, especially given that he showed last year he’s capable of producing splash games in the right circumstances.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Jeudy’s big 2024 was heavily propped up by a quarterback no longer on the roster. Before Winston’s arrival, Jeudy had zero top-24 fantasy finishes through Week 9. His career high in touchdowns is just six, and before last year, he had never reached 1,000 receiving yards. Now, he’s in arguably the worst offensive environment in football with a poor offensive line, a shaky quarterback situation, and an overall unit that projects to be among the league’s lowest scoring. While he’s always had less-than-ideal circumstances, 2025 looks no different, and he’s already shown what his production typically looks like in such situations.

Final Verdict:
Jeudy is a good player, but there’s little evidence to suggest he’s a great one in fantasy terms. Without Winston’s YOLO ball tendencies and in a bottom-tier offense, he’s a risky investment whose weekly floor is extremely low. While it’s possible he pops for a few big games, the consistency simply isn’t there, making him a fade unless his draft cost falls dramatically.

WR 33: Rashee Rice (KC)

Reasons for Optimism:
Before his Week 4 ACL injury last season, Rice was on a blistering pace, leading the league in receptions through Week 3 and looking like he could evolve into the de facto Travis Kelce replacement in Kansas City’s offense. Now healthy, he can reclaim that role and operate as Patrick Mahomes’ go-to option underneath, with the upside for a truly special season if he returns to form. In an offense that still lacks a dominant target earner at wide receiver, Rice’s path to volume is clear once he’s on the field.

Reasons for Pessimism:
This is Rice’s first season back from a major injury, and history suggests that many players don’t regain their full athleticism immediately, hence the “year after, the year after” approach to targeting players post-injury. Adding to the concern, Rice is facing a likely suspension of 2 to 8 games due to off-field issues, which derail his season and limit his total fantasy output. Even without the legal trouble, his 2025 campaign would carry risk given the uncertainty of his post-injury performance.

Final Verdict:
Rice’s talent and role make him an enticing stash candidate, but he's a difficult player to draft confidently between the ACL recovery and a lengthy suspension. He’ll likely go higher than I’m willing to take him, but if I start the season hot in my league, he’s the type of player I’d look to trade for as a late-season playoff push piece. He’s best suited in drafts for managers with the depth to wait out the early-season absence.

Added edit: It is now being reported that Rice is expected to have a disciplinary hearing with the NFL on September 30th. Thus, he should be available for the first 4 games of the season, and then will likely receive his suspension. The prevailing thought is that it will be 6 games and should be enacted after the hearing. It is bad timing for fantasy managers as he will miss the middle of your season, and the Chiefs' bye week is week 11. He will not get extra time to recover from his injury, and you will have to stash him on your bench during the bye weeks. This uncertainty makes it unlikely that Rice will be someone I look to draft, but if you want to gamble, you can still pursue it. It is not guaranteed how many games he will miss and when he will miss them. If the suspension gets delayed again or it is for fewer games than we anticipate, he will be a major steal at this price. 

WR 34: Jordan Addison (Min)

Reasons for Optimism:
Addison has quietly finished as a top-24 fantasy receiver in both of his NFL seasons. His game is built on big plays, and he’s been highly effective in the red zone; his 20 touchdowns since entering the league are tied for the fourth-most among WRs in that span. Playing opposite Justin Jefferson gives him favorable matchups, and he’s proven capable of capitalizing when defenses key on Jefferson. Even with a new quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, Addison has the talent to deliver week-winning performances, especially in a pass-heavy scheme. His three-game suspension to start 2025 is short enough that he could still be a valuable draft pick, and if it pushes his ADP down far enough, he could be a steal.

Reasons for Pessimism:
First off, Addison is suspended for the first 3 games of the season. You will have him taking up a bench spot to start the season, as he is not eligible for your IR spot in most leagues. On top of that, Addison’s fantasy profile is volatile. His season-long production is concentrated in boom weeks, making him inconsistent from a week-to-week standpoint. The transition to McCarthy at quarterback adds uncertainty, and there’s always the possibility that the rookie leans heavily on Jefferson, leaving Addison with fewer targets. While his touchdown rate has been a strength so far, sustaining at such a high clip may be difficult over time.

Final Verdict:
Addison isn’t the type of player to give you a safe weekly floor, but his ability to score and make splash plays makes him a dangerous weapon in the right matchup. If his suspension discounts him enough in drafts, he’s the kind of high-upside WR3 who can swing fantasy matchups, just be prepared to ride the highs and lows.

Tier 8 – “League-Winning Upside Swings”

This is arguably my favorite tier of receivers. In fantasy football, the goal isn’t to make the playoffs; it’s to win the whole thing. Every year, rookie WRs emerge in unexpected situations and completely shift the landscape. Last season, Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey were perfect examples.

You might not see a clear path to playing time or a heavy role for some of these guys right now, but football is volatile, depth charts change, injuries happen, and opportunities appear out of nowhere. The same goes for second-year WRs who flashed but never fully put it together due to injuries or other circumstances.

The strategy here is to identify a couple of players you believe in more than the market and stash them. While players in the next tier might be “safer,” they rarely carry the league-winning upside that hitting on one of these names can provide.

WR 35: Emeka Egbuka (TB)

Reasons for Optimism:
Everyone is raving about Emeka Egbuka. He leaves Ohio State as the school’s all-time leader in receiving yards, no small feat considering the program’s long and outstanding history. The Buccaneers taking him in the first round wasn’t surprising based on talent, but it did raise eyebrows given their current receiver depth. That said, the pick could prove forward-thinking. Mike Evans is now 32 with a history of nagging injuries, and Chris Godwin is recovering from a serious injury that could delay his start to the season or limit his early effectiveness. If Godwin misses time, Egbuka could open the season in two-wide sets alongside Evans, competing mainly with second-year WR Jalen McMillan. In a potent Tampa Bay offense, his polished route-running gives him a high floor if given consistent targets.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Egbuka’s path to early-season volume isn’t guaranteed if both Evans and Godwin are healthy. The Bucs still have multiple established weapons, and as a rookie, he’ll need to earn trust quickly to secure meaningful snaps. Without an injury or clear role expansion, he could remain more of a depth piece in year one.

Final Verdict:
Egbuka is an ideal bench stash, a talented rookie in a high-functioning offense with multiple pathways to relevance via injuries or age-related decline ahead of him on the depth chart. While patience may be required early in the year, his skill set and situation make him a prime candidate to pop if given the opportunity.

WR 36: Travis Hunter (Jax)

Reasons for Optimism:
Hunter might have the broadest range of outcomes of any player in fantasy this year. The Jaguars clearly believe in him; they traded a future first-round pick to get him, but the big question is what his role will actually be. Will he primarily play offense, split time between offense and defense, or see his role change weekly? His athleticism is generational, and if Jacksonville decides to unleash him offensively, he has the potential to be nearly as impactful as Brian Thomas Jr. in this passing game. Liam Coen’s arrival as offensive coordinator should help scheme touches for him, and if he clicks early, he could explode.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The uncertainty here is enormous. Hunter’s snap share and role could fluctuate as the Jaguars feel things out, and his primary responsibilities may not be on offense every week. BTJ is firmly entrenched as the WR1, which caps Hunter’s ceiling unless Jacksonville leans heavily into a two-headed attack. Trevor Lawrence has yet to prove he’s a consistently elite quarterback, and even Thomas Jr.’s breakout last year came with Lawrence sidelined. Drafting Hunter means paying for upside with almost no guarantee of role stability.

Final Verdict:
Hunter’s ceiling is exciting, but his floor is as low as any receiver in this range. While I acknowledge the potential to “miss the boat” if he hits, I generally prefer taking other rookies or wildcards who go later in drafts. He’s a bet on rare talent and Jacksonville’s willingness to feature him, and if that happens, he could be a fantasy difference-maker. But he’s equally likely to be a frustrating asset who is getting too many snaps on defense (as cool as that is to see from a pure viewing standpoint).

WR 37: Ricky Pearsall (SF)

Reasons for Optimism:
Usually, I’m hesitant to bet on second-year WRs who didn’t produce as rookies, but Pearsall’s situation has clear mitigating circumstances. He was literally shot in the chest right before his rookie season, forcing him to miss almost half the year. When he returned, he didn’t start showing signs of life until the season's final two weeks. Now, with a full training camp under his belt, he steps into a much better opportunity. Deebo Samuel is gone, Brandon Aiyuk is still injured (and could be hampered when he returns), and Jauan Jennings is lobbying for a new contract. Pearsall was a first-round pick for a reason, and the 49ers couldn’t fully utilize him last year due to multiple factors. In a highly efficient offense like San Francisco’s, the runway is there for him to pop.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Pearsall’s NFL résumé is essentially two productive weeks, and projecting a breakout requires a leap of faith. Even with the current injuries, the 49ers still have Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, who both could limit his target share. If Aiyuk returns fully healthy sooner than expected or Jennings’ situation is resolved quickly, Pearsall could slide back into a smaller role.

Final Verdict:
Pearsall is a bet on draft pedigree, opportunity, and the unique circumstances that derailed his rookie year. He’s not a lock to break out, but he’s precisely the kind of late-round upside swing you want in a high-functioning offense.

WR 38: Jayden Higgins (Hou)

Reasons for Optimism:
Higgins might have the most straightforward path to immediate featured snaps of any rookie WR. Selected 34th overall, he’s expected to step right into two-WR sets opposite Nico Collins. At 6’4”, Higgins brings size, catch radius, and versatility, forming a physically imposing duo with Collins. Christian Kirk should man the slot without affecting Higgins’ outside role. If the Texans’ new OC leans into C.J. Stroud’s arm talent, Higgins could quickly see high-volume opportunities.

Reasons for Pessimism:
While the role is there, the offense’s pecking order isn’t fully set. In a middling attack, Collins will remain the primary target, and Kirk will still have his share. If Houston’s run game falters, that might force more passing volume, but it could also expose a young receiver to more inconsistent production. Rookie WRs often need time to adjust, and Higgins isn’t immune to that learning curve.

Final Verdict:
The opportunity is staring him in the face, and the skill set matches it. If Stroud pushes the ball downfield and the Texans’ offense clicks, Higgins could be an immediate fantasy factor. At his ADP, he’s an upside swing worth taking.

WR 39: Rome Odunze (Chi)

Reasons for Optimism:
The 9th overall pick in 2024, Odunze deserves some benefit of the doubt after an underwhelming rookie year marred by a preseason knee injury and a dysfunctional Bears offense. With a new head coach and offensive system in place, plus the hope that Caleb Williams takes a big step forward, Odunze has a chance to reset his trajectory. His draft pedigree means the team believes in his talent, and if the offense clicks, he could flash the upside that made him a top-10 pick.

Reasons for Pessimism:

Odunze wasn’t just quiet last year, he was flat-out ineffective, averaging just 1.2 yards per route run, which ranked 15th among rookie WRs. The new regime brought in its rookies in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III, while DJ Moore remains the clear WR1. That creates heavy target competition for a player who has yet to establish himself at the NFL level. His path to a significant role isn’t guaranteed, and betting on a breakout means overlooking an objectively poor rookie season.

Final Verdict:
Odunze is worth taking as an upside swing in the later rounds, but he comes with more risk than many would like to admit. While the new system and a more functional offense may unlock his potential, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago, and we’ve already seen what his floor looks like. He’s a bet on draft pedigree and improvement rather than proven production, which is why I tend to prefer this year’s rookies over 2024’s disappointments.

WR 40: Matthew Golden (GB)

Reasons for Optimism:
I don’t buy into the idea that Matt LaFleur can’t have a true WR1, his early Green Bay years with Davante Adams prove otherwise. The Packers clearly see something special in Golden, spending their first first-round pick on a wide receiver for the first time since 2002. While the opening weeks could be messy with multiple mouths to feed in the receiving corps, if Golden establishes himself as the alpha, there’s no reason to think LaFleur would shy away from featuring him heavily. Even Josh Jacobs has publicly stated the team needs a true No. 1 target, and Golden has the skill set and draft pedigree to fill that role.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Golden will have to earn his role in a deep receiver room, and early-season inconsistency is likely as the Packers rotate targets. Jordan Love has shown a tendency to spread the ball around, so Golden would need to clearly separate himself to get the kind of volume required for consistent fantasy production. The competition for targets could make his breakout a slower burn rather than an immediate surge.

Final Verdict:
Golden is best viewed as a late-round upside play. He may start the year as more of a bench hold, but if his talent wins out, he could become a go-to weapon for Love and a major factor down the stretch. Draft him for his ceiling and be patient; the payoff could come in the fantasy playoffs if he emerges as Green Bay’s true WR1.

WR 41: Luther Burden III (Chi)

Reasons for Optimism:
Burden was a somewhat surprising second-round pick for Chicago after they had already selected Colston Loveland, but new head coach Ben Johnson clearly saw something he liked. Bears HC Ben Johnson is revamping the offense, and Luther Burden’s big-play ability, especially from the slot, fits perfectly into his vision. Burden thrived in the slot throughout his college career, so sliding into that role at the next level should be seamless if the scheme calls for it. In Detroit, Johnson consistently turned slot receivers into fantasy-relevant weapons, which sets a clear precedent for Burden to make an early impact in Chicago. While DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are projected starters, Johnson has no loyalty to the previous regime’s depth chart. 

Reasons for Pessimism:
Caleb Williams has yet to prove he can run a high-volume, Lions-style passing attack, and Chicago’s offense is loaded with mouths to feed. Between Moore, Odunze, Loveland, and others, Burden’s weekly target share could be volatile. The rookie likely starts the season behind more established options, making it hard to rely on him early.

Final Verdict:
Burden is a high-upside bench stash who could emerge down the stretch, especially if injuries open up more snaps. Just don’t count on him as an early-season starter, as his breakout may require patience.

Tier 9 – Veteran Depth with Limited Ceiling

This tier is largely made up of older players. Some are still in their prime years but stuck in reduced roles or saddled with offensive schemes that limit their upside. Others are well past their peak, but you’re hoping for some sort of late-career resurgence, maybe due to better health, a change of scenery, or a temporary boost in opportunity. They’re worth drafting as depth pieces, but the ceiling is low. Realistically, they project more as in-season fill-ins than difference-makers.

WR 42: Jakobi Meyers (LV)

Reasons for Optimism:
Meyers often falls in drafts because of his perceived lack of upside, and while that’s somewhat fair, it overlooks how valuable he can be as a steady fantasy contributor. He’s never been a true touchdown machine, though he did post 8 scores two seasons ago. With Geno Smith now under center, he gets a QB upgrade, and in the post-Davante Adams era, he’s clearly the WR1 in this offense. After Adams was traded last year, Meyers was on a 17-game pace for over 1,200 yards and 100+ catches. That level of volume plays in any format.

Reasons for Pessimism:
He’s not going to be the focal point of the passing game plan; that job belongs to rookie Brock Bowers, and his lack of explosive plays limits his week-winning potential. On top of that, the team looks to be a run-first offense led by new HC Pete Carroll and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty. He’s a better bet for consistent WR3-type production than for spiking into elite territory.

Final Verdict:
Meyers is the kind of player you take when you’ve already made your upside swings earlier in the draft and need a stabilizing force for your WR corps. He can guide you through the season, be a plug-and-play starter during bye weeks or injuries, and hold enough value to be a midseason trade chip.

WR 43: Chris Godwin (TB)

Reasons for Optimism:
Before his season-ending dislocated ankle in Week 7, Godwin was the overall WR2 in fantasy, and the Bucs showed their faith in him by handing him a lucrative contract extension despite the injury. His talent and role, when healthy, aren’t in question; he’s been a top option in this offense for years and could easily slot right back into heavy target volume if he’s physically ready.

Reasons for Pessimism:
I’m a big believer in the “year after, the year after” approach for injured players, which makes 2025 a potential ramp-up season. It’s unlikely Godwin will be ready to start the year, and even if he is, the Bucs have a new offensive coordinator plus plenty of other talented weapons. They can afford to ease him back in without forcing the issue.

Final Verdict:
I’m not actively looking to draft Godwin, but if he falls late and you have the patience to stash him, he could return to being a top option in Tampa. Just don’t draft him as someone you can rely on early in the season.

WR 44: Stefon Diggs (NE)

Reasons for Optimism:
Despite turning 32 and coming off a midseason ACL tear, Diggs is positioned to be the clear WR1 in New England. The Patriots’ receiving room is one of the thinnest in the league, and if rookie Drake Maye takes the expected step forward, Diggs could command a hefty 25–30% target share. In PPR formats especially, his reliable hands and short-to-intermediate route proficiency make him a strong candidate for steady weekly volume. Last season in Houston, he was still producing at a solid clip despite having more competition for targets.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The injury risk looms large; coming back from an ACL tear at his age is a significant concern. His average depth of target has been dropping year over year, suggesting he may now rely heavily on short-area work. New England’s offense is still unproven under Maye, and if the passing attack sputters, his high target share could still result in limited fantasy production.

Final Verdict:
Diggs has a clear path to heavy usage, but his age, injury history, and declining downfield role make him risky. He is better suited for PPR leagues as a volume-based WR3 with upside if Maye develops quickly.

WR 45: Cooper Kupp (Sea)

Reasons for Optimism:
Kupp shouldn’t be completely left for dead. While he’s played just 9, 12, and 12 games over the last three seasons, he remains a skilled slot receiver who can still rack up yards after the catch. Now in Seattle, Sam Darnold has shown he can feed productive years to receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and Kupp could fill a security-blanket role. If he’s healthy, there’s a realistic path to substantial volume, especially with the Seahawks expected to lean on short and intermediate throws.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Kupp is now 31, and receivers often hit a decline at this age. He’s coming off his least effective season and is no longer in Sean McVay’s highly efficient offense. Seattle is expected to skew more run-heavy, and he’s changing teams and quarterbacks for the first time in his career. Health remains the most significant issue; expecting a full season is wishful thinking.

Final Verdict:
Kupp may have lost a step, but he’s worth a late pick as an early-season contributor while you see if the cliff has truly arrived. Don’t bank on 17 games, but a healthy stretch run could make him a valuable bridge piece during bye weeks.

WR 46: Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind)

Reasons for Optimism:
Pittman was 12th in PPR points per game in 2023 and had built a reputation as a steady 1,000-yard receiver with 90+ catches. The talent is still there: crisp footwork, strong route running, and a history of commanding volume. He’s still young, and it’s not far removed from when he was valued as a borderline WR1 in drafts.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Last season was a steep drop-off, just 69 catches, 808 yards, and 3 TDs. Pittman thrives on volume, and now he’s tied to a highly inaccurate QB in Anthony Richardson, whose quarterback style limits passing opportunities. If Richardson misses time or doesn't start the season, Daniel Jones is an upgrade for Pittman’s profile, but still not a high-end passer. Add in what should be a run-heavy offense, and the consistent volume Pittman needs feels unlikely.

Final Verdict:
Pittman should be treated more like a flex or bench stash than a locked-in starter. The upside is there if circumstances break right, but his QB situation and offensive environment make him much riskier than his talent level alone would suggest.

WR 47: Khalil Shakir (Buf)

Reasons for Optimism:
Shakir led the Bills in yards, receptions, and targets last year, not a small feat in an offense that should still be among the league’s more productive passing attacks. He saw an uptick in usage toward the end of the season, and Buffalo extended him this offseason, locking him in as their primary slot receiver. The Bills also project to throw for more touchdowns than they did last year, which could give him a small boost.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Despite leading the team in receiving categories, Shakir was only WR 37 in fantasy last year. His average depth of target was just 5.5 yards, one of the lowest in the league, which caps his weekly upside. He’s more of a short-area safety valve than a big-play threat. To make matters worse, he’s currently week-to-week with an ankle injury. While it’s not expected to be long-term, he could start the season a bit slow.

Final Verdict:
Shakir is a serviceable WR3/4 who can provide stability to your roster, but his role limits his ceiling. Draft him without the expectation for fireworks.

WR 48: Josh Downs (Ind)

Reasons for Optimism:
Downs impressed in stretches last year, earning a 21.7% target rate and showcasing advanced route-running skills that have film junkies raving. If Anthony Richardson takes a step forward in his accuracy, or if Daniel Jones starts for an extended period, his 67.3% catch rate could rise significantly, unlocking more consistent production. His ability to win at multiple depths gives him theoretical versatility in the Colts’ passing game.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Even with his target share, the Colts’ current offense appears capable of consistently supporting just one fantasy-relevant wide receiver, and the receiving room in Indianapolis is crowded. Downs will have to compete for looks with Michael Pittman Jr, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. In a run-first scheme centered around Jonathan Taylor, there may not be enough passing volume to give him a reliable weekly floor.

Final Verdict:
Downs has the skills to be more than just a role player, but his situation limits his upside. For now, he’s a depth piece, best suited as a late-round flyer who can pop in the right matchup.

WR 49: Deebo Samuel Sr. (Was)

Reasons for Optimism:
Deebo enters his first season away from Kyle Shanahan’s hyper-efficient 49ers offense, landing in Washington with Kliff Kingsbury calling plays. The Commanders don’t have a deep pool of proven pass-catching talent, which could funnel targets Deebo’s way. Kingsbury’s scheme should give him plenty of yards-after-catch opportunities, and if he can stay healthy, the volume in a good offense could push him back into fantasy relevance.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Outside of his 2021 breakout, Deebo has never topped 900 receiving yards in a season and has struggled to stay healthy with various injuries. Now 29, it’s fair to question whether his elite athleticism and playmaking are still at peak levels. He’s also entering an offense where rookie QB Jayden Daniels could steal short-yardage and goal-line opportunities with his legs, further limiting touchdown upside. His week-to-week production will likely be inconsistent.

Final Verdict:
Deebo is a name that will tempt drafters, but he’s more risk than reward for me. The path to success exists in this very good offense, but it’s entirely dependent on him staying healthy and playing at full speed, which has been the exception, not the rule.

WR 50: Darnell Mooney (Atl)

Reasons for Optimism:
Mooney was a top-12 WR through the first half of last season, a fact the fantasy community seems to have collectively forgotten. He’s going well past the point where you need to draft him as anything more than a bench flier. If rookie Michael Penix Jr. surprises and proves to be an aggressive downfield passer, Mooney’s speed and vertical ability could shine.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Penix is still an unknown, and the Falcons’ offense is built around Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Mooney’s path to consistent volume isn’t obvious unless Atlanta leans more heavily into the passing game than expected.

Final Verdict:
Mooney’s late-round ADP and past flashes of top wide receiver production make him an intriguing sleeper. He’s a bet on Penix being better than expected. If that happens, Mooney could be a real steal.

WR 51: Jauan Jennings (SF)

Reasons for Optimism:
Jennings stepped up in a big way last year amid the 49ers’ injuries, finishing 12th in yards per route run and showing he could handle being a focal point when needed. Being part of a Kyle Shanahan offense always carries upside, and he’s proven he can deliver boom weeks if given the opportunity.

Reasons for Pessimism:
With Christian McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall healthy, plus Brandon Aiyuk eventually returning, Jennings’ path to consistent targets is murky. He’s also starting camp dealing with a minor calf injury, the same issue that bothered him last year, and is currently seeking a new contract. The missed time could hinder his early-season role, and the 49ers don’t seem overly attached to him long-term.

Final Verdict:
Jennings is more of a “keep on your radar” guy than a draft target. If injuries strike again, he’s shown the ability to step in and produce, but his weekly value will be extremely volatile in a fully healthy San Francisco offense.

WR 52: Jayden Reed (GB)

Reasons for Optimism:
Reed has flashed enough big-play ability to keep us intrigued. He averaged just 4.4 touches per game last year but still managed to be efficient, and added over 150 rushing yards to his receiving work. Last year his Week 1 breakout teased a potential steal-of-the-season outcome, and his explosive capability makes him a player defenses have to account for.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Volume is the issue. Reed finished with just a 16.2% target share, played only 63% of snaps, and often disappeared for weeks at a time. The Packers’ decision to draft first-round WR Matthew Golden doesn’t exactly signal more opportunities coming his way. Reed is mainly confined to three-receiver sets, and there’s no guarantee Green Bay changes his usage even if injuries strike for other members of the passing game.

Final Verdict:
Reed has proven he could have boom fantasy weeks, but his role caps his ceiling. He’s more of a best-ball or deep-league dart throw than a reliable weekly starter in standard formats unless the Packers consolidate their WR rotation.

WR 53: Keenan Allen (LAC)

Reasons for Optimism:
Allen returns to Los Angeles, and while most discussion around his signing focuses on how it impacts others, namely Ladd McConkey, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and Tre Harris, he still has standalone value. Even in a dysfunctional Chicago offense last year, he posted 70+ catches for over 700 yards. His established chemistry with Justin Herbert could make him a plug-and-play option if injuries hit the depth chart, with the potential for a few spike weeks.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Allen’s best days are behind him, and the Chargers are expected to be more run-heavy under their current regime. Both he and McConkey operate best from the slot, meaning target competition could limit his weekly ceiling. Without a heavy volume role, which seems unlikely, he’ll be tough to trust as a consistent fantasy starter.

Final Verdict:
Allen is no longer a player you target aggressively, but he’s not irrelevant either. As a late-round depth piece, he offers some short-term stability and injury-driven upside, though he’s more likely to be a matchup-based flex than a season-long staple.

WR 54: Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

Reasons for Optimism:
Aiyuk has always been extremely talented, producing fantasy-relevant seasons through elite efficiency despite modest volume. With Deebo Samuel gone, his historical splits without Deebo in the lineup are impressive, and he could theoretically step into a bigger role when healthy.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Last year was a bust from the start, a training camp holdout, a sluggish opening stretch with only one game finishing inside the top 40 WRs, and then a season-ending ACL and MCL injury. He’s likely to begin the year on the PUP list, and even once activated, it’s unlikely he’ll be at 100% right away. There’s still plenty of competition for targets in George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and potentially Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings.

Final Verdict:
Aiyuk’s talent is undeniable, but the combination of injury recovery, early-season unavailability, and competition for touches makes him a fade for me. Any upside he has is more likely to show up late in the season, and that’s not something I want to bank on.

Tier 10 – Watchlist & Deep-League Fliers

This group likely won’t be drafted in most leagues, but they’re worth keeping on your radar. Monitor them throughout the season so you can jump ahead of the waiver-wire rush if they start to carve out a bigger role or flash upside.

WR 55: Keon Coleman (Buf)

Reasons for Optimism:
Coleman is entering his sophomore season at just 22 years old, with plenty of room for growth. Drafted 33rd overall, the Bills have a vested interest in developing him, and there’s not a ton of competition for targets in Buffalo. If he continues to develop, he could emerge as the team’s true X receiver in a potent offense led by Josh Allen. The cost to acquire him in drafts is minimal, making him a low-risk upside play.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Coleman looked raw last year and topped 70 receiving yards just once. While the opportunity is there, he hasn’t yet shown he can be a consistent fantasy contributor. The Bills may spread the ball around, limiting his week-to-week reliability, and there’s no guarantee he takes a big step forward this season.

Final Verdict:
Worth a late-round flier for the upside in a good offense. He’s not someone to rely on weekly, but given his age, draft pedigree, and potential role, the breakout path is there if he develops quickly.

WR 56: Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG)

Reasons for Optimism:
Robinson drew an eye-popping 140 targets last season, finishing seventh in the league in receptions. In PPR formats, that kind of volume will always be appealing, and his role as a short-area safety valve was well established in 2024. If the Giants continue to funnel him easy completions, he could provide a steady floor even without big plays.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Despite the massive target share, Robinson didn’t even crack 700 receiving yards, a tough feat to pull off. Much of his production came because defenses focused entirely on Malik Nabers, often conceding short throws to Robinson that didn’t move the chains. With a new quarterback room and likely changes to the offensive approach, extreme regression in his target total feels inevitable.

Final Verdict:
Monitor him early in the season, especially in full-PPR leagues, but don’t count on another triple-digit target year. The role that inflated his numbers in 2024 is unlikely to repeat.

WR 57: Rashid Shaheed (NO)

Reasons for Optimism:
Shaheed is legitimately one of the league’s best deep threats, tying for the second-most 40+ yard catches over the last two seasons. When healthy, he can flip a game in a single play and force defenses to respect the deep ball.

Reasons for Pessimism:
After a blazing start in 2024, his season ended early due to a meniscus tear, and the Saints offense collapsed. With Derek Carr retired, Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough are now battling for the starting job, neither inspiring much confidence in their ability to push the ball downfield consistently. Shaheed is also firmly behind Chris Olave on the depth chart, and this offense projects as one of the worst in the NFL.

Final Verdict:
The talent is real, but the situation is about as bad as it gets. Shaheed’s fantasy relevance will be limited to the occasional big-play week without an unexpected QB breakout.

WR 58: Marvin Mims Jr. (Den)

Reasons for Optimism:
Mims flashed serious upside down the stretch in 2024, leading the league in yards per route run after Week 11 (minimum 80 routes) and scoring six touchdowns in his final seven games. When the ball finds him, he makes plays, big ones. There’s no locked-in WR2 behind Courtland Sutton, so there’s at least a theoretical path to more involvement.

Reasons for Pessimism:
The issue is simple: Sean Payton doesn’t play him. Mims saw just 27% of the team’s snaps for the season and never topped 47% in a single game. His usage is heavily scripted, and despite Payton talking him up publicly, the playing time never followed. With the Broncos adding Evan Engram and drafting Pat Bryant, there’s now even more competition for targets than last year.

Final Verdict:
The talent is tantalizing, but the usage history is a red flag. Unless Payton has a sudden change of heart, Mims will remain a situational player whose big weeks are impossible to predict.