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I always build my rankings in terms of tiers, and quarterback is the perfect example of why that approach matters. I believe you gain a huge advantage in your league by landing one of the elite quarterbacks, and I prioritize getting one of the top four guys in that tier. After that, though, I tend to wait.
Yes, there are players I like more than others, but after the elite tier, I’m generally searching for value rather than chasing a specific name. Once I hit Tier 3/4, it’s tough to feel confident about the exact order of QBs. In that range, I’m not reaching. I’ll often wait and grab one of the later quarterbacks in the tier, focusing instead on loading up at other positions. Truthfully, I can talk myself in and out of nearly every QB in that middle group.
That said, if I do take a volatile quarterback with boom-or-bust potential, I’ll pair him with a more stable option later in the draft. Conversely, if I take a “boring” low-end QB1 type, I’ll roll the dice on an upside flier with my last pick.
The quarterback position is deep this year, as it usually is, but hitting on the right one outside the top tier can be tricky. If you can’t get the positional edge at the top, draft smart: target value, chase upside, and give yourself multiple shots to strike gold.
Tier 1 – The League Winners
These quarterbacks can give you a true edge over your competition. They're safe, consistent, and come with week-to-week upside that few others can match. Every player in this tier has a legitimate shot at finishing as the overall QB1 this season.
QB 1: Josh Allen (Buf)
Reason for Optimism:
There’s really not much to debate, Josh Allen is incredible. The reigning MVP has finished as the QB1 or QB2 in fantasy for five straight seasons. That kind of consistency is nearly unheard of. He’s the poster boy for the “fantasy cheat code” that is dual-threat quarterbacks. Believe it or not, Allen is actually second among all active players (not just QBs!) in career rushing touchdowns, trailing only Derrick Henry. On top of that, he made strides as a passer last year, trimming his interceptions down to 6 after throwing 18 the year before.
Reason for Pessimism:
If you’re nitpicking, there are two concerns. First, Buffalo became more efficient and run-heavy last year, resulting in Allen throwing for less than 4000 yards and having his lowest pass attempt total since 2019. Second, his receiving corps is a question mark following Stefon Diggs’ departure the year prior. While Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir offer intriguing upside, there’s no proven elite pass-catcher in the mix right now.
Final Verdict:
Despite the shifting offense and receiver uncertainty, Allen remains my clear-cut QB1. He’s the most bankable option at the position: durable, explosive, and the centerpiece of a strong offense. When the floor is QB2 and the ceiling is league-winner, you draft confidently and don’t look back.
QB 2: Lamar Jackson (Bal)
Reason for Optimism:
Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson might be coming off his best season, and he didn’t even win MVP for it. He set career highs in passing yards and touchdowns, all while still rushing for over 900 yards. The arrival of Derrick Henry didn’t dampen his fantasy output one bit. In fact, Jackson was the highest-scoring QB in fantasy last year, outpacing the field by over 50 points. He remains the most electrifying quarterback to watch, and his dual-threat skillset gives him unmatched weekly upside.
Reason for Pessimism:
Just a couple of small red flags keep him from my QB1 spot. First is touchdown regression: Jackson posted an 8.6% TD rate last year, a number that's hard to sustain even for elite QBs. For example, he had a 9.0% TD rate in his historic 2019 campaign, but in the three seasons in between, he didn’t top 5.3%. Second is durability. While he’s never suffered anything catastrophic, Jackson did miss five games in back-to-back seasons (2021–22) and has a smaller frame than someone like Josh Allen. With Henry around, there's also a chance Lamar sees fewer red-zone carries.
Final Verdict:
You won’t hear me bash Lamar Jackson; he’s got the highest ceiling of any quarterback in fantasy football. I might have him ranked just behind Allen, but he’s well ahead of my QB3. If you draft Lamar, you’re not just hoping to compete; you’re swinging to win the whole league. And that’s exactly what he gives you a shot to do.
QB 3: Jalen Hurts (Phi)
Reason for Optimism:
Even after winning the Super Bowl, Eagles fans still found something to be mad about, this time, insisting Jalen Hurts is underrated. Philly, let me assure you, I’m not one of those people, at least in fantasy. I have Hurts ranked QB3, while some are jumping on the Jayden Daniels hype train. Why? Because Hurts is just so reliable. He’s scored 52 rushing touchdowns in his last 62 games. That’s not a typo. And with the Tush Push still legal, there’s no reason to think that changes anytime soon.
Reason for Pessimism:
If you want to poke holes, the main knock is that the Eagles were the most run-heavy team in football last year, which did cap Hurts’ passing volume. But that game script won’t always repeat itself; they blew teams out early and barely needed to throw after halftime. There’s also his injury history and a couple of underwhelming fantasy playoff performances, which may still sting for some.
Final Verdict:
This is one of the best scoring offenses in football, and Hurts is the engine. His rushing floor is elite, his red-zone role is unrivaled, and he has room to improve as a passer. He may not be my QB1, but he’s as locked-in a fantasy option as it gets, and fully capable of finishing atop the leaderboard.
QB 4: Jayden Daniels (Wsh)
Reason for Optimism:
I’m probably going to get labeled a Jayden Daniels hater this year, which sucks, because I love watching him play. His rookie season was one of the most exciting I’ve seen in my lifetime, maybe only rivaled by RG3. Daniels rushed for over 900 yards and looked surprisingly poised as a passer. Maybe those Vision Pros he practices with really do work. And the scary part? He might get better. He was just a rookie and didn’t have elite weapons around him. If you believe Deebo Samuel has a resurgence in store, that could give Daniels a legitimate game-breaking playmaker.
Reason for Pessimism:
But I’m fading him. Why? For starters, his weapons didn’t improve, if anything, they might’ve regressed. Everyone’s a year older, and his No. 1 target, Terry McLaurin, is currently holding out. Washington’s schedule is also much more challenging this year, and defensive coordinators have now had a full offseason to game plan for Daniels. Remember how high we were on C.J. Stroud last year? That hype cooled quickly when the league adjusted.
Final Verdict:
I don’t see Daniels falling off; he’s clearly mature beyond his years, and his rushing ability gives him a very high fantasy floor. What I don’t love is his draft cost. He’s going in the same range as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and sometimes even ahead of Jalen Hurts. I just can’t justify that. Could he have a league-winning season? Absolutely. But you’re paying for perfection when the risk is still very real.
Tier 2 – The Solo Sniper
This tier belongs solely to Joe Burrow. While he lacks the dual-threat upside of the quarterbacks in Tier 1, his elite passing ability keeps him firmly in the conversation. I can’t justify taking him ahead of my top four due to the rushing floor those guys offer, but Burrow feels like the best bet to lead the league in passing touchdowns and/or yards. And even if I can envision other quarterbacks having spike years, I can’t imagine taking anyone ranked below him over Burrow in a draft.
QB 5: Joe Burrow (Cin)
Reason for Optimism:
Joe Burrow is an elite NFL quarterback, and in fantasy terms, he kicks off the tier just below the dual-threat superstars. While he doesn’t rack up rushing yards, he’s a surgeon through the air. In 2024, despite some early-season rust, he finished as the QB3 in standard scoring, throwing for nearly 5,000 yards and a league-best 43 passing touchdowns. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins returning, and a shaky defense likely forcing the Bengals to score a lot, Burrow should again be in plenty of shootouts.
Reason for Pessimism:
The downside? He’s not giving you anything on the ground. In an era where elite fantasy QBs routinely rack up 500+ rushing yards and goal-line TDs, Burrow's production is entirely tied to his arm. There’s also a bit of injury baggage; he’s had two seasons cut short, and Cincinnati’s offensive line remains more a liability than an asset.
Final Verdict:
Burrow is the gold standard for traditional pocket passers in fantasy. He could absolutely lead the league in passing again, and with elite weapons at his disposal, there’s a clear path to top-5 production. Just know the floor isn’t quite as forgiving as it is with the running QBs, and draft accordingly.
Tier 3 – The High-Upside Contenders
This tier is filled with players who all have a realistic path to finishing as a top-5 fantasy QB, without needing to squint too hard or be blindly optimistic. Each of these quarterbacks brings something to the table: it could be development, improved health, a strong supporting cast, elite rushing upside, or simply a proven track record. If any of them end up as a top-5 finisher, you wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.
QB 6: Patrick Mahomes II (KC)
Reason for Optimism:
Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, and no one thinks he’s past his prime. While his last two fantasy finishes (QB11 and QB12) have been underwhelming, he still has a pair of QB1 seasons and three additional top-5 finishes on his resume. The Chiefs have talked openly this offseason about wanting to be more explosive after getting handled in the Super Bowl. With Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco healthy, Travis Kelce back for another year, and Xavier Worthy entering his second season, there’s reason to believe the offense may return to early-Mahomes levels of fantasy firepower.
Reason for Pessimism:
Still, Mahomes hasn’t been a top-tier fantasy producer lately. The Chiefs have played a more conservative style the last two years, prioritizing defense, and it’s worked. They’ve made three straight Super Bowls and won two. Mahomes also lacks the rushing upside of the quarterbacks being drafted around him, which means his margin for error is slimmer. This isn’t a talent issue, it’s about volume, game script, and offensive philosophy.
Final Verdict:
Mahomes might not have to change to keep winning, but I think he wants to. This feels like the year the Chiefs open things up again, and if they do, Mahomes has a real shot at reclaiming top-5 fantasy status. I won’t argue with anyone who prefers the rushing upside of others in this range, but I’m bullish on a bounce-back season and comfortable drafting him ahead of consensus.
QB 7: Kyler Murray (Ari)
Reason for Optimism:
Kyler Murray gives you precisely the kind of rushing floor I keep talking about with dual-threat QBs. In his first season post-ACL tear, he wasn’t quite his old self, but still ran for nearly 600 yards and scored 5 rushing touchdowns, numbers most QBs can only dream of. Now he says he’s open to running more, and while that may not ultimately be his decision, the intent is encouraging. He’s also a solid passer with real weapons: Trey McBride has emerged as an elite TE, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will only get better. I always say I like players “the year after the year after the injury,” and that’s Kyler in 2025.
Reason for Pessimism:
While the rushing numbers are substantial, we’re still unsure if the old “Kyler magic” is fully back. He’s a smaller quarterback who’s taken some hits, and the Cardinals might not want him running wild. He’s also not exactly in a high-powered offense, Arizona is still building its identity, and game flow may not always help him. He could wind up stuck in the mid-tier if he doesn't add rushing volume.
Final Verdict:
Kyler offers a high weekly floor with legit upside, and he’s comfortably in my mid-tier of quarterbacks. I’m not going out of my way to target him, but I won’t hesitate to grab him if he falls in drafts. He’s a solid, safe option with just enough spark to surprise.
QB 8: Justin Fields (NYJ)
Reason for Optimism:
Justin Fields might be the most significant case study in “real life vs. fantasy value” I’ve ever seen. The Jets might have one of the worst QB situations in the league, but I’m all in on Fields for fantasy this year. Let’s be clear, this won’t always look pretty. Fields has never shown he can be a good NFL passer. But from a fantasy lens, he’s electric. He owns the second-most rushing yards by a QB in a single season (1,143 in 2022), and in just six starts last year, he rushed for 5 touchdowns. The Jets don’t have a young long-term option behind him, and unless he gets hurt, Fields looks poised to start the entire season.
Reason for Pessimism:
Injuries have been a concern, Fields missed time in Chicago, and his play style invites hits. He also joins a Jets offense that’s far from explosive. After Garrett Wilson, the receiving cupboard is thin. Running back Breece Hall is legitimately the second-best pass catcher on the team, and there’s an unproven offensive coordinator and head coach running the show. The setup is fragile, and the floor could collapse quickly if things spiral.
Final Verdict:
Fields isn’t going as a top-10 QB in most leagues, but his upside is absolutely top-5. He’s the kind of dual-threat player who can win you weeks single-handedly. That said, if you draft him, pair him with a safe later-round QB, there are plenty this year, because Fields will either be a season-changer… or a weekly rollercoaster. Buckle up.
QB 9: Bo Nix (Den)
Reason for Optimism:
I wasn’t in on Bo Nix last year, and honestly, I should’ve known better. Sean Payton always builds a productive offense. He even made Russell Wilson look halfway competent in Denver, which says a lot. But it wasn’t all Payton; Nix held his own. He quietly ran for 430 yards and 4 touchdowns, showing sneaky mobility, and now, for the first time since high school, he’ll have the same head coach and play caller for back-to-back seasons. Denver also invested in the offense by drafting RJ Harvey, which should help improve last year’s lackluster run game.
Reason for Pessimism:
The passing numbers don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Denver was in the bottom half in EPA per drop-back, success rate, and passing yards per game. Their offense stayed afloat thanks to elite red zone efficiency, but that’s a stat that tends to regress. Was Nix's second-half improvement a sign of things to come, or just a small-sample hot streak? He feels like a safe starter, but his touchdown upside could be limited if the efficiency dips even slightly.
Final Verdict:
I trust Nix as a steady weekly option. He’s mobile, well-coached, and showed clear growth. But in a tier loaded with QB talent, he might have a lower ceiling. I’m not avoiding him, but I’m not chasing him either. He's safe and solid, but probably not a league-winner.
QB 10: Baker Mayfield (TB)
Reason for Optimism:
Yes, you read that right: Baker Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards, completed 71.4% of his passes, and tossed 41 touchdowns last season. That wasn’t a fever dream; it happened, and it landed him as the QB4 overall in fantasy. He’s firmly entrenched as Tampa Bay’s franchise quarterback and enters 2025 with arguably more offensive firepower than anyone. Mike Evans is back, Chris Godwin is returning from injury, and the Bucs added Emeka Egbuka in the first round to accompany second-year playmakers Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving. It’s a legitimately deep group.
Reason for Pessimism:
Touchdown regression feels inevitable. Mayfield’s 7.14% TD rate was wildly above his career norm; his previous high was 5.6%, and he'd never topped 30 passing TDs before last season. He also lost OC Liam Coen, who played a major role in Tampa’s offensive renaissance. Then again, people said the same thing when Dave Canales left the year before, and Baker still got better. Still, that kind of year-over-year leap is hard to sustain.
Final Verdict:
I’m not betting on another top-5 fantasy finish, but Baker belongs in the conversation as a strong weekly starter with real upside. The weapons are legit, the system has proven flexible, and he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. That said, because of last year’s explosion, you’ll probably have to pay up to get him. I like him, but I’m more comfortable drafting a QB that falls to me in this tier of guys instead of reaching for one.
Tier 4 – The Wildcards
This tier is made up of true boom-or-bust options. These quarterbacks could finish as low-end QB2s, or surprise us with a high-end QB1 season. Some are second-year starters with rushing upside and the potential to explode if things click. Others have already shown elite pocket-passing production in the past and could return to form if their situation breaks right. This tier is all about upside swings with a broader range of outcomes.
QB 11: Dak Prescott (Dal)
Reason for Optimism:
Dak’s coming off a serious injury, but I find myself higher on him than consensus heading into 2025. People seem to forget he was the QB3 in 2023, leading the league in passing touchdowns. At just 32 years old, he’s had plenty of recovery time and returns to a familiar setup in Dallas, now with an upgraded supporting cast. CeeDee Lamb is healthy and locked into a new contract, and George Pickens gives Dak his best WR2 in years. The Cowboys also head into the season with another suspect run game, meaning they’ll likely lean on the pass. Add a defense that could regress, and we’re looking at more shootouts, and more fantasy points.
Reason for Pessimism:
The injury was no joke. Prescott reportedly tore his hamstring off the bone. There’s no guarantee he will return fully to form, and unlike many quarterbacks in this tier, Dak doesn’t offer any rushing upside to help buffer his floor. He was never a runner, and now that element is pretty much gone altogether. The fantasy returns could be limited if the passing volume or efficiency takes even a slight dip.
Final Verdict:
Dak won’t carry you with his legs, but the arm talent, weapons, and game environment remain. He’s a strong value pick late in drafts, especially if you pair him with a more volatile dual-threat option. You’re not betting on the ceiling with Dak… you’re betting on stability. And in the mid-to-late rounds, that’s a smart play.
QB 12: Caleb Williams (Chi)
Reason for Optimism:
I talk myself in and out of Caleb Williams constantly. On one hand, he finished as the QB16 last year, but he flashed real upside, including a QB1 overall finish in Week 6. For what was considered a disappointing rookie season, 20 passing touchdowns against just 6 interceptions is impressive. He also added nearly 500 rushing yards, showing off his dual-threat potential. Now, with Ben Johnson stepping in as head coach, a guy who helped turn Jared Goff into a legit fantasy asset, there’s reason to believe the ceiling is sky-high. The Bears went all-in on offense, adding Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III to a receiving room already featuring DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. The pieces are there for a breakout.
Reason for Pessimism:
Williams took 68 sacks last year. That’s not just a product of poor line play; it’s also on him. Learning when to get rid of the ball is going to be crucial. While the offensive scheme and protection should improve, he must take real developmental steps to unlock his upside fully. And while he ran for almost 500 yards, he didn’t score a single rushing touchdown. There’s also the draft cost; someone in your league will probably reach based on the hype, and it might be a little too rich if you’re the cautious type.
Final Verdict:
The ingredients are here for a monster breakout: elite arm, rushing ability, an aggressive offensive coach, and a deep supporting cast. I get the hype, even if I don’t know if I’ll be the one pulling the trigger. Grab a reliable backup if you draft Williams, because you won’t have trouble finding a Plan B in standard leagues. He could be this year’s late-round league-winner, or this year’s over-drafted “maybe next year” guy.
QB 13: Justin Herbert (LAC)
Reason for Optimism:
People forget: Herbert started last year injured, gutted it out, and quietly finished the season strong. While his playoff meltdown (more picks in one game than the rest of the season combined) left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, he threw just three interceptions during the entire regular season, a wildly impressive feat. He’s still an elite passer, capable of 5,000-yard seasons, and Ladd McConkey emerged as a legitimate top target. Herbert’s talent is never the issue, he’s one of the best pure throwers in the league.
Reason for Pessimism:
The Chargers are leaning into the run game, and that doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon. They’ve built around that identity this offseason, which caps Herbert’s weekly ceiling. While he’s a sneaky decent runner, he won’t put up huge rushing stats to make up for volume loss through the air. And let’s be honest, he doesn’t have the same upside as the elite dual-threat QBs in this tier.
Final Verdict:
Herbert might not have the sexiest fantasy profile, but he’s reliable, efficient, and still has upside if the Chargers are ever forced into more pass-heavy scripts. He’s not a breakout pick, but he’s better than his ADP suggests and offers a rock-solid floor with room to grow.
QB 14: Brock Purdy (SF)
Reason for Optimism:
Brock Purdy is simply a good quarterback. Fantasy managers (and fans in general) tend to hold onto draft pedigree far too long, but it’s time to let that go. Purdy isn’t just a product of Kyle Shanahan’s system. He proved that by holding the 49ers together through a brutal 2024 season full of injuries, and the team rewarded him with a massive contract. Two years ago, he led the NFL in both yards per attempt and QBR, and finished as the QB6 in fantasy. Even when Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle were stripped at various points last year, he still held his own.
Reason for Pessimism:
Purdy’s fantasy ceiling is tightly linked to the 49ers’ offense operating at full power. He’s a decent runner, but his production dipped without his whole cast of weapons. If the Niners aren’t among the league’s highest-scoring teams, Purdy probably won’t be among the highest-scoring QBs either.
Final Verdict:
Vegas thinks this offense is still elite, as it projects the 49ers as one of the top scoring units again, and Purdy is locked into a high-efficiency role with elite talent around him. He’s not going to wow you with flash, but he gets the job done. He’s firmly in the mid-tier QB conversation and absolutely capable of finishing top-10 again if everything clicks.
QB 15: Drake Maye (NE)
Reason for Optimism:
The Drake Maye hype is loud right now, and while I’m more in on the Patriots as a team, I’m not entirely buying Maye as a fantasy asset just yet. That said, there’s some good stuff here. Maye flashed real rushing upside in 2024, running for over 400 yards in just 12 starts. Mike Vrabel comes in as head coach, and his presence alone should make the Patriots a more competitive and disciplined football team. That stability matters, and Maye seems like he’ll get every chance to lead.
Reason for Pessimism:
The fantasy outlook, though? Still rough. Vrabel’s coaching identity is built around defense, physicality, and a run-first approach, not exactly a recipe for a high-octane offense. The playmaker situation is also grim. Stefon Diggs turns 32 and is coming off a torn ACL. Behind him? Demario Douglas, who’s fine but not moving the needle. TreVeyon Henderson was a nice addition in the draft, but he helps the offense more than he helps Maye directly. Maye's weekly ceiling looks capped without legit passing weapons, even if he has good rushing production.
Final Verdict:
Maye has some tantalizing dual-threat potential, but I don’t see a special offense forming around him this season. While he might help New England win more games, that doesn’t always translate to fantasy success. There’s a real risk he ends up being over-drafted based on rushing hype alone. I’m happy to stash him in deep formats, but I’ll let someone else pay the premium in standard leagues.
Tier 5 – The Steady Hands
This tier is composed of players with capped upside. Each quarterback here can be a reliable QB1 for your team, but I don’t see a realistic path to truly elite production. They’re solid and steady, ideal candidates to pair with a more volatile, high-upside option you may have drafted earlier. Think of them as safe insurance policies that can keep your lineup afloat.
QB 16: Jared Goff (Det)
Reason for Optimism:
Goff is the exact opposite of a Caleb Williams-type pick. There’s nothing theoretical about him, he’s already produced back-to-back top-7 fantasy finishes in a high-octane, proven offense. He’s steady, efficient, and surrounded by elite talent: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and a strong offensive line. Even with everything going right last year, including arguably the best offense in football, Goff still "only" finished as QB6. That tells you what his ceiling is… but also how rock-solid his floor can be.
Reason for Pessimism:
There’s very little rushing value here, Goff is a complete zero with his legs, which puts a hard cap on his fantasy ceiling. He’s also likely already hit his peak in passing efficiency and volume. The Lions could take a slight step back after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and several other key staffers. Even a modest regression could nudge Goff down toward the QB10–12 range, especially if the defense improves and the team doesn't need to air it out quite as often.
Final Verdict:
Goff is the perfect pairing for a high-variance, mobile QB. He won’t win you many weeks by himself, but he won’t lose them either. In a 1-QB league, he’s an ideal late-round stabilizer, especially if you’re swinging big on someone like Fields or Williams earlier. Safe, boring, productive… and there’s nothing wrong with that.
QB 17: Jordan Love (GB)
Reason for Optimism:
Jordan Love battled through arm and knee injuries for much of last season, starting in that international opener in Brazil, and never quite looked 100%. Even so, he still played solid football for the Packers, just not elite fantasy football. But let’s not forget: in 2023, his first full year as a starter, he finished as QB5. He’s still young, has a deep supporting cast (including first-round pick Matthews Golden), and benefits from a strong run game led by Josh Jacobs. Whether it’s Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, or Dontayvion Wicks, Love has weapons. He just needs to stay healthy and keep progressing.
Reason for Pessimism:
One big question: what happened to the rushing upside? After putting up 250 rushing yards and 4 scores in 2023, Love didn’t crack 100 rushing yards last year. It definitely limited his fantasy ceiling, whether that was injury-related or a shift in play style. He also struggled at times with efficiency and consistency, which is expected of a young quarterback, but it is something to monitor if you're drafting him as more than a backup.
Final Verdict:
Love is flying under the radar, and I think that’s a mistake. He’s still developing, tied to a smart offensive coach, and surrounded by playmakers. If the mobility returns and he stays healthy, there's legit top-10 upside here. At worst, he’s a mid-tier QB2 with growth potential, and that’s a pretty nice bet to make in the later rounds.
QB 18: CJ Stroud (Hou)
Reason for Optimism:
Wow—what a difference a year makes. Let’s not forget: C.J. Stroud’s rookie season was being legitimately called one of the best of all time. Now, just a year later, he’s become an afterthought thanks to Jayden Daniels’ breakout. But Stroud still has plenty of upside. While he cratered in fantasy last year, finishing QB28 in points per game, he still led the Texans to the Divisional Round and showed flashes of his elite passing talent. Bobby Slowik, his oft-criticized OC, was let go after another season of too many 3rd-and-longs and hero-ball situations. With a new offensive coordinator in place, an elite target in Nico Collins, free agent addition Christian Kirk, and rookie Jayden Higgins, the setup is still strong.
Reason for Pessimism:
The fantasy numbers weren’t just bad, they were alarming. Stroud simply didn’t produce, and while he looked good on tape, that doesn’t help your fantasy squad. He also took far too many sacks, and with Laremy Tunsil now gone, that trend may get worse before it gets better. Stroud offers almost nothing in the run game, so he needs volume and efficiency to finish in the top 10.
Final Verdict:
I’m not all-in on Stroud, but I’m not burying him either. He still has top-10 QB potential and has shown he can lead a real-life offense at a high level. The weapons are good, the OC change might help, and there’s bounce-back potential if the Texans offense finds rhythm early. Just don’t draft him as your only option; pair him with someone more mobile or consistent and hope you catch lightning again.
QB 19: Trevor Lawrence (Jax)
Reason for Optimism:
I’m still holding out hope for Trevor Lawrence. No, he hasn’t quite lived up to the “generational QB” hype, but he has turned the Jaguars into a respectable franchise, including a playoff win a few years back. When healthy, he’s shown flashes of elite talent. He just signed a massive extension, and Jacksonville doubled down on surrounding him with upside: Brian Thomas Jr. is locked in as the No. 1 wideout, Travis Hunter was drafted as a high-ceiling offensive weapon, and Liam Coen, who helped engineer Baker Mayfield’s QB4 finish last year, is now calling plays. The pieces are there if it finally clicks.
Reason for Pessimism:
But the reality is this: Lawrence has just one top-10 fantasy QB finish in his career, and even that season, he was only QB11 in points per game. The Jaguars still have issues on the offensive line, and while Lawrence chips in 3–4 rushing touchdowns most years, he doesn’t run enough to elevate his weekly floor. There’s also the lingering question of whether we’re just making excuses for a guy with plenty of chances.
Final Verdict:
This feels like a make-or-break year for Lawrence in both real life and fantasy. The talent’s there. The coaching staff is upgraded. The weapons are better. It’s fair to wonder if it ever will if it doesn't happen now. I’m not out on him, but I find myself preferring other flier QBs with more rushing upside or clearer breakout paths. Lawrence still has the tools, but he has to put it all together.
QB 20: Tua Tagovailoa (Mia)
Reason for Optimism:
We all know what we’re signing up for with Tua, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster. But let’s not forget: just two seasons ago, Tua led the NFL in passing yards. He’s a legitimately good quarterback, accurate, efficient, and capable of big games in a Mike McDaniel offense built to create explosive plays. Tyreek Hill, even if he's not quite at his peak, still demands defensive attention every snap, and De’Von Achane is one of the most dynamic playmakers in football. When Tua is healthy, this offense hums, and he’s proven he can be a reliable fantasy option.
Reason for Pessimism:
The problem, of course, is staying healthy. Injuries have defined multiple Dolphins seasons now. Every time he takes a hit, you’re holding your breath. From a fantasy angle, that makes him tough to trust. From a human angle, it’s even tougher, given the long-term concerns about his health. Add to that his complete lack of rushing upside, and you’re looking at a player with a relatively low weekly floor and a fragile ceiling.
Final Verdict:
Tua’s a very good passer in a very good system, but his availability is a constant worry. He’s not someone I’m reaching for in drafts, but if you’re in a 2QB league and need a safe(ish) QB2 with occasional big-game upside, he fits the bill. Just make sure you’ve got a solid contingency plan, because history says you may need it.
Tier 6 – The Dart Throws
This tier is made up of pure dart throws—players worth considering with your last pick in the draft. Whether it’s their youth, rushing upside, aggressive play style, or simply the mystery of having barely seen them on the field, there’s a chance one of them clicks. That said, the path to success is narrow. Don’t rely on these guys as your primary QB, they could just as easily be cut from your roster within the first few weeks of the season.
QB 21: Anthony Richardson (Ind)
Reason for Optimism:
Anthony Richardson may have been one of the biggest fantasy busts last year, but the upside that got people drafting him as a top-3 QB hasn’t disappeared. Even if you don’t believe in his passing, he completed under 50% of his throws and had four more interceptions than touchdowns last year, his rushing ability is truly special. Few quarterbacks in NFL history have had his combination of size, speed, and athleticism. If he plays most of the season, even modest improvement as a passer could give you a real return on investment. He also has solid weapons around him, including Michael Pittman Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor.
Reason for Pessimism:
The downside? It’s massive. Richardson had offseason shoulder surgery and still hasn’t been fully cleared. There’s a real chance Daniel Jones starts Week 1. If Richardson does play, accuracy and decision-making remain huge concerns. He’s still raw, and unless he makes a leap, he could be more headache than help.
Final Verdict:
This is the type of flier you take at the very end of your draft, and move on from quickly if it doesn’t pan out. But if it does work out, the upside is top-5 at the position. The floor is brutal, but the ceiling is worth the dart throw if you have a stable QB1 or play in a deep league. You don’t need to believe it’ll happen, you just need to be ready in case it does.
QB 22: Bryce Young (Car)
Reason for Optimism:
Bryce Young was left for dead after his mid-season benching, but somehow revitalized his career after Andy Dalton’s ill-fated cameo. Young began to remind people why he was the No. 1 overall pick just a year earlier, with quick decision-making, great touch, and impressive accuracy. He even chipped in six rushing touchdowns last season, despite it not being a huge part of his game. Still, that shows he’s not a total zero in that department. With a top-10 pick at receiver (Tetairoa McMillan) now in the fold, there’s room for growth.
Reason for Pessimism:
That said… the Panthers are still one of the least talented rosters in the league. Young is still, well, young, and while he showed flashes, the surrounding support remains weak. There’s a real chance this team is a complete mess again, and Young gets dragged down with it. He also doesn’t offer enough consistent rushing production to buoy his fantasy value in low-scoring games, and Carolina’s offensive line and play-calling are still big question marks.
Final Verdict:
You don’t need to bank on Bryce Young, but don’t cross him off, either. He’s a worthwhile flier in deeper leagues or 2QB formats, especially if you want to bet on pedigree, late-season momentum, and garbage-time shootout potential. If he puts it together across a full season, there’s real value here, but don’t hold your breath.
QB 23: Michael Penix Jr. (Atl)
Reason for Optimism:
Michael Penix Jr. is still largely an unknown, and at this point in the draft, that’s not a bad thing. It means there’s upside. In his limited action last year (just three starts), Penix came out aggressive, pushing the ball downfield and showing flashes of his arm talent. In an offense loaded with playmakers, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and a solid supporting cast, there’s a path for this to work if he settles in quickly.
Reason for Pessimism:
But there are plenty of question marks. Penix offers almost nothing as a runner, making him a one-dimensional fantasy option. Despite punching in one rushing touchdown last year, that’s not a part of his profile. He also carries a significant injury history from his college days at Washington, making durability a genuine concern. And with so few NFL reps under his belt, growing pains are almost guaranteed if he sees extended time under center.
Final Verdict:
Penix is a pure upside stash, nothing more, nothing less. If he meshes with Atlanta’s talented skill players, he could return value in deeper leagues. But he’s not a must-draft, and he’s not someone to rely on early. Keep expectations in check, but don’t ignore the possibility that he surprises you if the situation breaks right.
QB 24: Cam Ward (Ten)
Reason for Optimism:
Has there ever been less hype for a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback than Cam Ward this year? Sure, it was labeled a “weak QB class,” but Ward balled out at Miami last season. Full disclosure, I’m a UM alum and loved watching him play, but seriously, can we get a little excitement here? Ward showcased elite pocket mobility and a live arm, and while he’s not a true dual-threat, he’s more than capable of picking up points on the ground. He’s the kind of guy who can quietly add 20–30 rushing yards a week and sneak in a few red zone scores.
Reason for Pessimism:
The situation isn’t ideal. Tennessee has an unproven coach, a murky scheme, and a receiving corps that lacks star power. The offensive line isn’t great either, and Ward does tend to hold the ball too long, something that could lead to sacks and turnovers early on. The entire Titans offense may take some time to find its identity, which will likely limit Ward’s fantasy consistency.
Final Verdict:
Ward probably isn’t getting drafted in your league, and that’s fine. But don’t forget about him entirely. He has the tools to surprise, just like C.J. Stroud did two years ago when everyone was down on his situation. Monitor him closely in the early weeks, especially in deeper or 2QB formats. The ceiling might be higher than people think.
QB 25: JJ McCarthy (Min)
Reason for Optimism:
There’s definitely a path where J.J. McCarthy proves the doubters (like me) wrong. He has elite weapons around him: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. Kevin O’Connell has earned a reputation as a QB-friendly play-caller who can scheme receivers open. McCarthy showed flashes at Michigan with impressive throws, and there’s always the allure of the unknown: if it clicks, the upside is real.
Reason for Pessimism:
That said, I’m lower than the consensus on McCarthy, and I could stand to be wrong. But he’s in a uniquely challenging situation: he’s the only first-round QB who missed his entire rookie season. That kind of layoff is hard to come back from, and the pressure is on after how well Sam Darnold played for Minnesota last year. At Michigan, McCarthy didn’t have to carry much; he played in a dominant program with a run-heavy scheme designed by Jim Harbaugh that didn’t ask him to make a ton of difficult throws. He may have growing pains, and we shouldn’t be shocked or overly critical if that’s the case.
Final Verdict:
McCarthy could surprise, but I think people are assuming a bit too much too soon. I’d rather take shots on other QBs in his range with more defined upside. In dynasty, he’s interesting long-term. But in redraft or shallow leagues, I’m likely staying away.
Tier 7 – The Low-Upside Starters
This tier is made up of starting quarterbacks who offer very little upside. They might have value as bye-week fill-ins during the season, but they shouldn’t be drafted in standard one-QB leagues. In 2QB or Superflex formats, however, their relatively steady floor could make them viable as a second quarterback.
QB 26: Sam Darnold (Sea)
Reason for Optimism:
I might be too low on Sam Darnold, it really depends on your league format. In a standard 1-QB league, I’d probably chase upside with a younger dual-threat guy. But in 2-QB or Superflex leagues, don’t sleep on how good Darnold was last year. He threw 35 touchdowns with a perfectly reasonable 6.4% TD rate, nothing fluky. He was slinging it all season long, but people seem quick to discard the whole year. Maybe it’s because of how the season ended (which was rough), or maybe it’s the belief that anyone in Kevin O’Connell’s system with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison would automatically thrive.
Reason for Pessimism:
Now he’s in Seattle, and that brings a lot of unknowns. The Seahawks paid him decent money, sure, but this is a brand-new situation, and we don’t know how much of last year’s success will translate. Darnold’s always had arm talent, but his track record is still wildly inconsistent. He also won’t offer anything on the ground and doesn’t have the elite supporting cast he had in Minnesota. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a legit WR1 candidate, but overall, this offense still has question marks.
Final Verdict:
Darnold likely won’t duplicate last season, but he’s still a solid option in deeper leagues. He’s especially viable in 2QB formats where locked-in starters with some proven upside are gold. Don’t expect fireworks, but don’t ignore him, either. If things break right, there’s a path to low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 production.
QB 27: Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Reason for Optimism:
Let’s be clear, I like the Rams as a team. They’ve got playmakers, they’re well-coached, and Stafford is still fully capable of leading a winning football team. He’s a tough veteran with a rocket arm, plenty of experience, and really good receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. But that’s where the optimism ends from a fantasy perspective.
Reason for Pessimism:
I’m out on Stafford. At this point in his career, he just doesn’t offer real upside. He hasn’t been a top-15 fantasy QB since 2021, and he’s already dealing with back issues in camp, something that’s plagued him throughout his career. Last year, he rushed for just 41 yards and threw only 20 touchdowns. The Rams lean on the run game near the goal line, which caps his scoring ceiling. You’re not getting any rushing, and you’re not getting consistent fantasy production either.
Final Verdict:
This isn’t about Stafford being a bad player, it’s about him being a bad fantasy bet. In 1QB leagues, there are too many higher-upside options to justify the pick. Even in 2QB formats, I’d rather take a swing on a younger, more dynamic option. Hard pass for me.
QB 28: Geno Smith (LV)
Reason for Optimism:
Geno Smith could be a sneaky value in 2QB formats if the Raiders are better than people think. He finished as QB16 last season and now lands in a situation where there’s some talent to work with despite the lack of elite receiving options. Geno remains a steady veteran with the ability to manage an offense and avoid critical mistakes, which makes him valuable in deeper formats.
Reason for Pessimism:
A lot of Geno’s 2024 success stemmed from Seattle ranking 7th in pass attempts—a volume level he’s unlikely to see in Las Vegas. While Chip Kelly is now the offensive coordinator, he’s not running his old up-tempo Oregon-style system anymore. Head coach Pete Carroll wants to win with defense and a run-first approach, which is why the team drafted Ashton Jeanty. This offense is likely to be slower-paced and more methodical, which caps Geno’s fantasy ceiling. He doesn’t offer any rushing value, and the weapons aren’t expected to elevate him beyond a game manager role.
Final Verdict:
Geno’s not a league-winner, but he shouldn’t be left for dead either. In 2QB or Superflex leagues, he’s a decent depth option with a shot to finish as a mid-range QB2. Keep an eye on how the Raiders' offense evolves early in the year, if they surprise, Geno could return value. Just don’t expect much upside.
