Full Series: QB(2025)  RB(2025)  WR(2025)  TE(2025)  Conclusion(2024)

Introduction

This article provides a statistical analysis of tight end performance, examining TE success relative to average draft position (ADP) in dynasty rookie drafts and years of experience in the NFL.

I consistently do these analyses for my own dynasty fantasy football team. As evidence that my strategies work, my team has made the playoffs the last six years in a row. Additionally, I have a strategy for managing my draft picks, such that I am currently holding picks: 1.02, 1.09, 2.02, 2.09, 3.02, 3.03, 3.09, and 3.11. Additionally, I have 4 1sts, 3 2nds, and 5 3rds for 2026 and 2027. Draft picks always increase in value. Except for rookies and 2nd year players, players generally depreciate. So the team holding the most picks is appreciating at the fastest rate in the league.

My TEs currently are George Kittle (SF), Evan Engram (Den), and Foster Moreau (NO). I started last season with Dalton Kincaid (Buf) on my roster. However, he was not performing, Engram was injured, and my team was on the edge of making the playoffs. So I spent some of my draft capital trading away Kincaid to acquire Kittle. This is the trade that I made:

The starting lineup in our PPR league requires 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB, WR or TE), 1 K and 1 DST, and using the flex position I started double-TE sets four times last season.

If Kittle and Engram both have another year in the tank, then my team is in good shape for 2025. However, both are entering their 9th year in the NFL. It is definitely time to add some younger TE talent to my roster. And I believe there's decent TE talent entering this year's draft. I like the potential of Tyler Warren (Ind), Colston Loveland (Chi) and Elijah Arroyo (Sea). 

If Warren falls to me at 1.09 or Loveland to my 2.02, or Arroyo to my 3.02, I will consider drafting them. However, I might also consider trying to trade for a 2nd or 3rd year TE that might be undervalued, based on the analysis of this study.

During the draft, draft rookie hype is at its peak. Even in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, many managers have favorite players they believe are undervalued studs.

If you can resist the rookie hype, trading for veteran players during the draft can be advantageous. For this strategy to work, know which veterans you want to target before your draft begins. Find out their consensus market value and then offer a little less, hoping the owner is enamored with a rookie still on the draft board when you are on the clock.

This analysis helps you see the real value of draft picks so you can make more calculated decisions to bolster your TE corps.

Historical ADP Information

Based on historical ADP information, this is where tight ends were drafted over the last eleven years:

Last year, the top-6 TEs in my PPR league were: Brock Bower (LV), George Kittle (SF), Trey McBride (Ari), Jonnu Smith (Mia), Travis Kelce (KC), and Mark Andrews (Bal).

The remaining TE1s were: Mark Andrews (Bal), Zach Ertz (Wsh), Sam LaPorta (Det), Tucker Kraft (GB), David Njoku (Cle), Pat Freiemuth (Pit), and Hunter Henry (NE).

Because Kittle, Smith, Andrews, and Tucker had an ADP later than the 3rd round, and because Kelce and Ertz are entering their 13th season, which is before the first year of ADP data for this study, these players are not included in this statistical analysis. The fact that four of the top-12 TEs that were drafted later than the 3rd round, and that two of them are in their 13th season, illustrates the difficult nature of pinning down a top TE from your dynasty draft.

My TEs, Kittle and Engram, were acquired through trades, and I failed with my 2023 1.06 pick with Dalton Kincaid. However, this doesn't mean I will stop trying.

Since this study focuses on TEs drafted in the first three rounds over the last 11 years, it shows the value of using a draft pick to draft a TE versus trading or acquiring from waivers.

Success Rate vs Years of Experience

The next step in my analysis is to see how drafted TEs performed for fantasy since being drafted. In my analyses of the different positions, I have valued just the top 12, with a value of 1 for the top 6 and a value of 0.5 for the 7th through 12th.

I then took the integral of their results and got this chart:

Next, I put this information into graphical form:

As we can see from this chart, TEs drafted in the last 10 years seem to peak in their 4th year.

Draft picks are a dynasty team asset that always rises in value. If we want to maximize the value of our team, we must use draft picks efficiently. One way to do that is to trade picks forward and up. For example, on draft day, I can often trade a high 2nd-round pick for a future 1st-round pick, or a mid-2nd-round pick for two 2nds, or a 2nd and a 3rd. These types of trades are the best way to increase the value of a dynasty team because the acquired picks continue to appreciate.

The second-best way to improve a team overall is to trade picks for players that are most likely to rise in value. Concerning TEs, generally speaking, this would include rookies, 2nd-year, and 3rd-year players. Later, during the season, if we find ourselves in dire need of tight end firepower, we can consider trading for a veteran player whose value is on the decline, as I did for Kittle last year.  Even if we overpay a little bit, this is still efficient, because we have a high degree of certainty that we are getting a player of actual value, rather than just potential, and we are filling a specific known need.

With the focus on this year's dynasty rookie draft, here is my quick analysis of the TEs of interest that have entered the NFL in the last three years:

2024

• Brock Bowers (LV): Bowers had a fantastic rookie year, catching 108 targets for 1144 yards and 4 TDs. He is valued very highly and cannot be acquired efficiently now, which would make him an expensive, depreciating asset, so I am not interested.
• Ja'Tavion Sanders (Car): Sanders, who is behind Tommy Tremble on the Panthers depth chart, showed flashes of brilliance is rookie season but suffered a serious neck injury mid-season. The Panthers drafted Mitchell Evans in the 5th round. My feeling is that this pick was more of an insurance policy. If Sanders is fully recovered from his neck injury, then there is a decent chance he will overtake Tremble. I am interested in Sanders for a high 3rd round pick.
• Cad Stover (Hou): Stover is behind 8th-year Dalton Schultz and 4th-year Brevin Jordan on the Texans' depth chart. Stover received light volume in his rookie year. I think he did enough in his rookie year and stands a chance to climb the depth chart to make me mildly interested if I have room on my roster and could pick him up from waivers after the draft.
• Erick All (Cin): All is behind 8th-year Mike Gesicki and 7th-year Drew Sample on the Bengals depth chart. All started six of nine games played last year before tearing his ACL. Unfortunately his surgeries have not gone well, and he is expected to miss all of the 2025 season. It seems to me he is a good 2025 IR stash if I can pick him up from waivers after the draft.
• Ben Sinnot (Wsh): Sinnot is behind 13-year Zach Ertz and 5th-year John Bates in the Commanders depth chart. Neither Bates nor Sinnot saw many targets last year, but with Ertz now in his 13th year, it seems likely Sinnot will get more opportunities this year. I have read that at 6'4", Sinnot is small for a TE1. Hah - not sure where they got their info. The top-3 TEs of 2024 were 6'4" and the next three were between 6'3" and 6'5"! I am interested in him if I have room on my roster and could pick him up from waivers after the draft.
• Theo Johnson (NYG): Johnson is the Giants' starting TE, ahead of 3rd-year Daniel Bellinger. Johnson injured his foot in the back half of the 2024 season, but has been participating in the Giants' off-season workout program and is expected to be at full health for the season. Johnson didn't light it up in his rookie year, but this is the normal trajectory for the 3-year development process of a TE. I would be willing to pay a low 3rd round pick for Johnson.
• Jared Wiley (KC): Wiley is behind 9th-year George Kittle and 4th year Noah Gray. Wiley caught one pass for seven yards his rookie season. I just don't see any near term opportunity for Wiley to get enough volume for him to develop in the NFL. I'm not interested.

2023

• Dalton Kincaid (Buf): Kincaid is behind 7th-year Dawson Knox on the Bills depth chart. Knox only caught 22 of 33 targets for only 311 yards and 1 TD. Kincaid did not progress from his rookie season to his sophomore season, and if he couldn't take the starting spot from Knox, I figure he isn't going to progress much more. I traded Kincaid away for Kittle last season because I needed real fantasy performance from my TEs, and Kincaid wasn't getting it done. I have essentially written off Kincaid. His consensus value is around a mid-2nd-round pick. If he floated my way for a mid-3rd round pick, I might be interested.
• Michael Mayer (LV): Mayer is behind Brock Bowers on the Raiders depth chart. If Bowers were on my roster, I might want Mayer as a handcuff, but otherwise, I am not interested.
• Sam LaPorta (Det): LaPorta was a TE1 last year, and with several older veterans ranking higher (including 13-year veterans Kelce and Ertz), LaPorta is in a prime position to be a top-6 TE. He is already valued too highly to be acquired efficiently, so I am not interested.
• Tucker Kraft / Luke Musgrave (GB): The Packers drafted both Kraft and Musgrave in 2023. Since Musgrave was drafted in the 2nd round and Kraft in the 3rd, Musgrave was drafted in dynasty leagues and Kraft was left on the waiver wire. However, Musgrave was injured for most of the 2024 season, and Kraft had a great sophomore year, taking the TE #1 spot for the Packers from Musgrave. It's not likely, but if I could acquire Kraft for a low 2nd, I would take him. I am not interested in Musgrave.
• Darnell Washington (Pit): Washington is behind 5th-year Pat Freiermuth on the Steelers depth chart and only caught 19 of 25 targets for 200 yards and 1 TD in 2024. With Washington's large size (6'7", 264 lbs), he is being used more as a blocking-TE. I'm not interested.
• Luke Schoonmaker (Dal): Schoonmaker is behind 4th-year Jake Ferguson on the Cowboys' depth chart and is proving to be injury-prone. It's unlikely he'll take the lead role away from Ferguson. I'm not interested.

2022

• Trey McBride (Ari): McBride was the overall 3rd TE in 2024. His value is too high to be acquired efficiently, so I am not interested.
• Jelani Woods (Ind): Woods had an encouraging rookie season. Then, due to injuries, he didn't play in 2022 or 2023. He has been all but forgotten. However, reports are that he is healthy and will be ready to play in 2025. The Colts still needed help at TE but drafted Tyler Warren with the 14th overall pick, who is expected to start right away. If I draft Warren, then I might be interested in picking up Woods as Warren's handcuff.
• Isaiah Likely (Bal): Likely is behind (8th-year) Mark Andrews on the depth chart. When Andrews was injured for eight games in 2023, Likely played well. Both become free agents next year. If the Ravens were to let Andrews go and re-sign Likely, then Likely has TE1 potential. If I had Andrews on my roster, then I would be interested in having Likely as Andrews's handcuff, but I am also interested in Likely because he is a proven talent and seems to be in line to be a team's no. 1 TE by 2026. I would pay a high round pick for Likely.
• Jake Ferguson (Dal): Last year, Ferguson combated injuries, a concussion, a knee injury, and other things while playing the back half of the season with Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush. With both Dak Prescott and Ferguson healthy, and coaching changes, Ferguson has the potential to rise this year while commanding dependable targets. I would be interested in Ferguson for a high 3rd round pick.

To summarize, here is what I might be willing to pay for the above players:

• Not interested because their value is already very high: Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride
• Low-2nd: Tucker Kraft
• High-3rd: Ja'Tavion Sanders, Isaiah Likely, Jake Ferguson
• Mid-3rd: Dalton Kincaid
• Low-3rd: Theo Johnson
• Waiver pick-up: Cad Stover, Ben Sinnot
• IR Stash: Erick All
• Not worth the space on my roster: Jared Wiley, Luke Musgrave, Darnell Washington, Luke Schoonmaker

I realize that these suggested offers during dynasty rookie drafts are below market value for the above-mentioned players. However, that's exactly the point. The goal is to leverage frequent overvaluation of rookies and dynasty draft picks due to the overwhelming rookie hype on draft day. When you know how to leverage that hype, you can find opportunities, as the draft now becomes a once-in-a-season bargain shopping event. Even if your trade offer is rejected, you might get interesting counter-offers.

TEs are the least drafted position in dynasty leagues, with Kyle Pitts as the only TE drafted with a top-6 pick in the last 10 years. During my brief time in a dynasty superflex league, fellow owners often joked that tight ends are the kickers of superflex. However, I see the TE as a position of opportunity. I often start double-TE sets. RBs and WRs are highly rostered, and there is a certain randomness to who will be the TE1s of any given year. This can work for a savvy fantasy team manager who watches what is playing out with TEs and can find talent that can get those extra fantasy points when needed before the rest of the league does. 

Success Rate vs Average Draft Position

Now, let's finish breaking down draft value versus ADP.

This is a breakdown of the success rate by round:

• 1st: 21.7%
• 2nd: 14.4%
• 3rd: 7.8%

Wrap-Up

My TE corps going into this draft is George Kittle and Evan Engram. With my arsenal of draft picks and some interesting TE prospects this year, I will try to add one or two young TEs to my team efficiently, either by drafting Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, or Elijah Arroyo if one of them falls right in the draft, or as a bargain by trade. If I am not able to round out my TE corps this way, I will add some TEs by waiver wire afterwards. I will also consider handcuffing TEs to Kittle and Engram, 5th-year Luke Farrell (SF) and 2nd-year Lucas Krull (Den), respectively.

In my final article of this series, I plan to combine all the results of the four positions to put together a comprehensive 3-round rookie draft strategy, including the actual relative value for each pick from 1.01 to 3.12. I am excited to find out for myself what the results will be and to finally lock down my draft strategy for my league's dynasty rookie draft, scheduled to start at 6 am on June 7th.

If you found this article helpful, here are some other resources you should consider checking out:

Dynasty: What I Learned From Week 1

Dynasty Draft Strategy: A Tale of Ten Trades

How I Got My RB1

My Dynasty FF Team Needs An RB1

How to Win Your Dynasty League