- Brian Murphy
Tweak, adjust and always look to improve your roster throughout the season. This edition includes a batter the we have long awaited to put it altogether who might finally be doing just that.
- Brian Murphy
"Don't want to pay for saves". Let's cover what's going on in the 9th with these teams to find new quality closers.
- Brian Murphy
Last week, I wrote about a few players whom you should think about adding to your fantasy team even though they aren’t playing in the majors right now. I regretted not mentioning Julio Urias in that article, but that’s OK because I can devote a full writeup to him here. But first, a short story.
In 1980, an unimposing, 5-foot-11 lefthander from Mexico named Fernando Valenzuela made his debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers at the age of 19. He didn’t allow an earned run in 17.2 innings that year and followed that up in 1981 by becoming the first player to ever win the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young awards. He began that season by posting five shutouts and allowing just two earned runs through his first seven starts. He ended it as the best player on a World Series champion. Through it all, Valenzuela was so beloved by Los Angeles’ large Latino – specifically, Mexican – community, his starts became must-see events. The craze was known as “Fernandomania.”
Thirty-five years later, there’s another 19-year-old, 5-foot-11 lefty from Mexico ready to become the Dodgers’ next phenom.
That’s Urias, a pitcher whom MLB.com has listed as a top-10 prospect two years running. He has done nothing to second-guess that ranking this season as he has a 1.25 ERA and a 39:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 36 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City. He threw six no-hit innings in a start earlier this month.
Urias does compare slightly to Valenzuela as a pitcher, but that doesn’t mean he will throw a bunch of shutouts right away – it’s a different era. However, Urias pitches with more power and better control. His career K-to-walk rate through more than 250 minor league innings is better than 3:1. Scouts have marveled at his feel for pitching at such a young age, and there was a belief that Urias was MLB-ready last year, at the age of 18, when he was baffling mature hitters in Double-A. Even at age 16, Urias was striking out more than 11 men per nine with a sub-2.50 ERA and a WHIP barely over 1.10. He is a player well beyond his years.
Urias has a full repertoire of pitches, too. A mid-90s fastball, an excellent changeup, a developing curveball and a slider. He can throw all of those pitches for strikes and spot them on different horizontal and vertical planes. His combination of age and stuff has led to comparisons with not so much Valenzuela, but Felix Hernandez.
The only obstacle in Urias’ way to Chavez Ravine is the Dodgers’ own rotation. It’s deep and bound to get deeper once Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy return from injury. However, the Dodgers’ bullpen is much more of a question mark, and there could at least be an important role for Urias in there very soon. He’s proven everything he can in the minors; it’s time for a promotion. Although a middle-innings gig may not sound sexy to fantasy owners, Urias’ strikeout potential and control could be a boon for teams that need to improve in the ERA and WHIP categories.
But, thinking optimistically, we could get even more than that out of Urias. The Dodgers’ rotation depth isn’t exactly overflowing with talent – at least not the type of talent Urias brings to the table. OK, Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda aren’t going anywhere. But Scott Kazmir has largely struggled this year, and there’s not special about neither Alex Wood nor Ross Stripling. Plus, how can you assume that Ryu or McCarthy will pitch like their previous selves following major shoulder and elbow surgery, respectively?
Whether the Dodgers want some more high-end talent in their rotation or someone to help bridge the gap to closer Kenley Jansen, Urias can wear either hat and miss plenty of bats while doing it. L.A. will protect him from throwing too many innings, but I think we will see him in the majors before July. We know he’s ready now. Maybe it won’t be like “Fernandomania,” but how about “U-phoria”?
- Brian Murphy
Finding players that can help your team immediately that others might miss is never easy. Check out these four players.
- Brian Murphy
Champship-winning owners look deep. These players are not in the majors, but deserve your attention.
- Brian Murphy
It’s no secret that David Price has gotten some rotten results in his first season with the Red Sox. He has a 6.75 ERA through seven starts. He leads the league in earned runs allowed. The Yankees’ anemic offense has scored 12 percent of their season total in runs against Price just this month. So, what’s up and should fantasy owners do with Price?
Everyone wants to point to Price’s fastball velocity, which has averaged 92 MPH. He sat at just above 94 MPH last year, so the drop is clearly significant. Still, even after his two most recent starts in which he struck out a total of seven batters in 11.2 innings, Price is averaging 11.5 Ks per nine, way above anything he’s done previously. During his Saturday start in New York, he topped out at only 93.5 MPH, a career low, but let’s see if the strikeouts continue to diminish. In general, Price has shown this year that less fastball velocity isn’t keeping him from accomplishing one of a pitcher’s main missions: miss a ton of bats.
Price is still a high-quality starting pitcher. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA all say so as each one is less than 3.00. Obviously, some bad luck has played a major role in Price’s struggles. He owns a .373 BABIP and a strand rate (54.4 percent) that is 20 points lower than his career average. Those types of things tend to right themselves as the season continues.
However, I can’t put a pretty face on all of Price’s numbers. While his BABIP is very high, it’s not as if hitters are getting a bunch of cheapies off of him. Price currently has a hard-hit percentage of 41.2; he has never topped 30 in that category in his career. That number is very concerning and odd for the pinpoint craftsman Price is. Yet, entering Sunday, the only qualified starting pitcher with a greater hard-hit percentage was Chris Archer, at 41.4.
Archer is another ace who came out of the gates getting knocked around the yard. But in the past couple of weeks, Archer has returned to his previously brilliant form, allowing just two earned runs and only 17 baserunners over 18.2 innings. Thus displaying that sometimes those hard hits just don’t fall. They are falling against Price right now, but that should change.
I don’t think the permanent move to the American League East or the pressure of a $217 million contract are playing parts here either. Price often dominated this division late last year while on the Blue Jays. The Red Sox have said Price is healthy, so perhaps it all boils down to some unknown mechanics that need to be cleaned. But as long as the K rate stays up and the walks stay down, Price is going to rediscover his greatness.
Now would be a good time to see if you could buy low on Price. On Sunday alone, he has been dealt in Yahoo leagues for Bartolo Colon (twice!) Josh Harrison and Jordan Zimmermann, which seems like a perfect buy-low, sell-high trade.
I trust Boston’s words about his health, and even after more than 1,500 career innings pitched, I don’t believe the 30-year-old Price is over the hill. I am not that alarmed yet by the velocity dip. If he strikes out only 3-4 batters per start – as he’s done in his last couple – then I would become very worried. But Price is by and large getting plenty of whiffs and has the metrics backing him up to say that he is no way near this bad of a pitcher and should see his fortunes change in time.
In short, go get David Price. Getting walloped by the Yankees will certainly lower his market value. Buy low and benefit when Price, barring injury, inevitably turns his season around.
- Brian Murphy
Since news broke of Miami Marlin's, Dee Gordon, 80-game suspension, some fantasy owners are wondering how they're going to replace him. The cupboard isn't totally bare.
- Brian Murphy
The first month of the baseball season is in the books. Here's a snapshot of some hitters and pitchers that unexpectedly performed like first round studs in April.
- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
Bryce Harper set Nationals Park ablaze Wednesday afternoon with a performance to remember. The Washington right fielder went 3-for-5 with 3 home runs and 5 RBI, becoming the youngest player since 1969 to hit three homers in a game. It was the kind of monster display that fans have been anticipating since the highly-touted Harper first made his debut three years ago as a 19 year old.
It's been somewhat of a winding road for the Nationals phenom since ascending to the big leagues, as his MLB fantasy owners can attest. Harper hasn't always put up the pure, eye-popping numbers that some thought he would after arriving on the major league stage to extensive fanfare. He hit .272 from 2012-2014 and set his present career-high marks with 22 HR and 59 RBI in his first season. Not figures to scoff at by any means, but definitely a few cuts below the lofty expectations pinned on Harper from the time he graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as a 16 year old.
Often overlooked is the fact that despite this already being his fourth season in Major League Baseball, Harper is still only 22 years old. He is actually younger than several of the game's other bright neophytes, including Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig, and Manny Machado. The MVP-level production will come, and if the early returns in 2015 are any indication, they might be on the way quite soon. After Wednesday's powerful display, Harper has 8 homers and 20 RBI at this early stage of the season. He is also putting up a .265/.416/.561 batting line. Fantasy owners should take note of that .416 OBP: he's drawn an MLB-leading 26 walks so far.
Some might claim that Bryce Harper's chief MLB fantasy appeal will come in his home run output. His current .265 average does leave something to be desired, but if he maintains this kind of plate discipline, it's hard not to like his prospects of becoming a much more well-rounded player for fantasy purposes. He collected a career-best 61 walks in 2013 and he is more than poised to shatter that number this year. Harper fantasy owners can rest assured that as long as he stays healthy he will be a major factor this season. He should only improve in the years to come as well.
For the best fantasy baseball news, including fantasy baseball sleepers and starting lineup advice, keep reading ASL!
- Greg Pokriki - Fantasy Focus
When a former MVP’s MLB fantasy value starts to plummet, fantasy owners are faced with a very tough choice. Do you hold the player and hope that his MLB fantasy stock will rebound or do you cut your losses and move on in a different direction? That’s the hard reality facing any team that’s watching a hobbled Andrew McCutchen struggle through game after ugly game. It’s not exactly breaking fantasy baseball news that the Pirates outfielder is batting a miserable .194 this season with only two home runs and no stolen bases.
Normally a six plus win player (based on WAR), McCutchen is only carrying a .2 WAR through this point in the season. However, the season is still very young and McCutchen could bounce back if the Bucs are smart enough to let him rest his ailing knee. It would be easy to overreact, assume that you as a fantasy owner are stuck with him for the season. But, the alternative is a much better outlook. Assume that things will turn around for McCutchen—because with a little rest, they probably will.
Throughout his career, April has consistently been McCutchen’s worst month of the season. During the month of April, he holds his lowest batting average, lowest hit total, lowest home run total, lowest walk total and his lowest monthly OPS. Yet with all of these repeated slow starts, McCutchen has won an MVP and been voted third in the race two other years. He has proven that he can overcome the slow Aprils and put in a fantastic season.
As a fantasy owner, there is obviously room for concern, but it’s still too early to panic. Monitor his injury closely, but bank on him bouncing back with the coming flip of the calendar. Count on Cutch—at the very least, he’s earned that from you.
For the best info on fantasy baseball sleepers and advice, tune into ASL!
