🗡️ THE FANTASY TYRANT’S DAILY DEBRIEF

Friday, July 25, 2025
Your ruthless roadmap to DFS conquest.

🎯 SLATE SNAPSHOT

• Slate:
• Main Slate: 13 Games
• Turbo (8:05): 4 Games
• Late Night (9:38): 2 Games
• Notable Lines:
• Brewers -222 (Freddy Peralta)
• Rays -206 (Dean Kramer)
• Rangers -191 (Shota Imanaga)
• Weather Watch:
• No likely weather impact today
  
  

💰HIGHEST/LOWEST IMPLIED RUN TOTALS

 

🌦️ WEATHER IMPACT

• No likely weather impact today
  
  
  

🔥 STACK BREAKDOWNS

🏰 CHALK STACK: Yankees

The Yankees are firmly in play tonight as one of the premier stacks on the slate, checking in with a 5.4 implied total and topping optimal stack projections across the board. Taijuan Walker’s been surviving more than thriving this season (4.40 SIERA, 1.30 HR/9), and he hasn’t cracked 4 innings in any of his last three starts. That opens the door for this surging New York offense to tee off, not just early, but all night against a Phillies bullpen heavily taxed of late.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are the obvious headliners, especially considering Walker’s ongoing struggles with right-handed power. But don't sleep on the lefty options here either. Whether it's Jazz Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, or Austin Wells, there’s plenty of pop from the left side, and all of them rate well against both Walker and the righty-handed heavy bullpen that’ll follow. 

Stack construction-wise, there’s flexibility to fit your budget. Judge, Jazz, and Belli are pricey, but Grisham and Rice give you cheap exposure at or near the top of the order. And then there’s the weather boost: warm and humid out in the Bronx. 

⚔️ GPP STACK: Orioles

The Orioles somehow have the highest implied run total on the slate… and no one’s talking about them. That’s DFS gold.

Baltimore clocks in at 5.8 implied runs, but their projected ownership remains oddly tame, likely because the names outside of Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday don’t scream “fear me.” Which is precisely why this stack is so appealing in GPPs: you’re getting low ownership exposure to the literal top run projection of the day.

Kyle Freeland and his 5.19 ERA aren’t scaring anyone, and once he’s chased (which won’t take long), the party continues against a Rockies bullpen that’s woefully bad. His K-rate is bottom-tier, his contact rate is high, and he lives in the zone. The O’s lineup is stacked with sneaky righty power; Tyler O’Neill, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, and even Ramon Laureano all have legit pop and match up beautifully with Freeland’s soft-tossing profile. 

You can balance those affordable righties with the pricier lefties, Gunnar and Holliday, and still build around a top-tier pitcher or secondary mini-stack. The top implied team on the slate rarely goes overlooked. Take advantage before everyone else realizes it.

🃏 VALUE STACK: Astros

Houston's offense has been quietly cooking against lefties lately, and with all the injuries piling up, it’s opened the door for us to grab some serious value. Without the big names like Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, or Jake Meyers in the mix, the Astros are the perfect contrarian stack, cheap, overlooked, and right-handed-heavy against a southpaw who’s not elite.

Jeffrey Springs might not be a disaster, but he’s no lockdown lefty. He’s coughing up a 4.75 xFIP and 1.59 HR/9 to right-handed bats this year, and his fly-ball tendencies put him in the danger zone every start, especially in Houston with the Crawford Boxes. Despite the reputation as a grinder, he’s given up 19 home runs this year, including 8 on the road, so the ballpark isn’t the only thing doing damage.

The Astros, meanwhile, have posted a 111 wRC+ vs LHP over the past 30 days and are loaded with low-salary value pieces. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, Cooper Hummel, Chas McCormick, and Mauricio Dubón offer cheap and good stack material. Yainer Diaz is back in the lineup after a day off and remains a potent bat for the catcher slot. And of course, Jose Altuve still mashes lefties like it’s 2017.

This isn’t a stack you go to for name value, but that’s the whole point. Use Houston to unlock the top arms or elite one-offs. The public’s sleeping on ‘em, but they’re a legit way to get different without getting dumb.

 

🔒 PITCHING PILLARS

💰Safest Bet: Logan Webb

• Fan Duel: $10,200
• DraftKings: $9,300
• Exposure: Med

Logan Webb is in a dream setup tonight, and while the Mets might sound intimidating by name, the numbers paint a very different picture.

Over the past 30 days, New York ranks just 17th in OPS vs righties (.723) and carries the lowest implied total on the slate. If Vegas believes in Webb, we probably should too, especially at home, where he’s been dominant with a 2.53 xFIP and 26.2% K-rate in one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly parks.

Webb’s coming off a rough patch around the All-Star break, including a sixth-inning implosion in Toronto, but let’s not overreact. He still owns 15 quality starts in 21 outings and remains a model of consistency, thanks to a 52% ground-ball rate and a steady 25.8% strikeout clip. The Mets’ top bats can be dangerous, but the bottom half of that lineup is strikeout-prone and non-threatening across the board.

With mild Bay Area weather (around 60° at first pitch) adding to the edge, Webb has one of the safest floors on the slate and sneaky upside if the punch-outs come in bunches. He may not carry the sexiest K-projection, but he’s as solid as it gets.

🎯 GPP Play: Dean Kramer

• Fan Duel: $9,000
• DraftKings: $8,000
• Exposure: Med 

I’m recommending an Orioles stack and their starter tonight, wow. 

Though Camden Yards has been more hitter-friendly in 2025 than in years past, the matchup is just too good to ignore for Dean Kremer. The rockies are just so pitiful, especially on the road, and with Ryan McMahon traded earlier today, this Rockies lineup somehow got even worse.

Kremer has quietly been on a heater, going at least 7 innings with 6+ Ks and no more than one earned run in each of his last two starts. And now he draws the Rockies, who, despite a surprisingly decent post-break record, are still the worst offense in baseball against righties by just about every measure.

Over the last 30 days, Colorado has had the league-worst 72 wRC+ and 27.2% K rate against right-handed pitching. On the season, their mark is nearly as bad: 78 wRC+ and a 26.6% strikeout clip in the split. This is as juicy a matchup as Kremer could ask for.

He’s not an elite strikeout guy overall (just 7.2 K/9), but this is one of those rare spots where his profile can play up, especially at home, where he's been flat-out excellent: a 2.00 ERA, 3.60 FIP, and a stingy .211 BABIP at Camden Yards.

He may not get the same buzz as other top-line starters today, but Kremer has the matchup, form, and price to matter on this slate.

🧨 Bargain Bet: Zebby Mathews

• Fan Duel: $7,800
• DraftKings: $7,100
• Exposure: Low 

Zebby Matthews isn’t for the faint of heart, but he might just be the slate’s best ceiling play around his price.

Yes, his 6.26 ERA in the majors looks gross. But peel it back, and there are promising signs. His 3.32 SIERA and 12.1 K/9 suggest the stuff is real, reinforced by a 13.8% swinging strike rate and 29.8% K-rate that scream upside. He carved up Triple-A earlier this year (1.72 ERA, 47 Ks in 36.2 IP) and looked sharp in his rehab tune-up. Last time out, the Rockies tagged him for five runs in four innings, but he still whiffed six and salvaged a serviceable fantasy line.

Now he gets a Washington team that rarely strikes out overall (19.7% vs RHP), but has been bottom-five in runs scored over the past two weeks. His ownership should be low, the price is absurd, and the upside is sky high. There’s risk, sure. But when he’s gone five innings, he’s cashed. And if he puts it together tonight in D.C.? He could win you the slate.

🔨 ONE-OFF OFFENSIVE HAMMERS

Top Batters Today Not In Stacks

• Bryce Harper
• DraftKings: $5,500
• FanDuel: $3,800
• Julio Rodriguez
• DraftKings: $4,500
• FanDuel: $3,200
• Alex Bregman
• DraftKings: $4,500
• FanDuel: $3,400
  
  

Best Value Hitters Today Not In Stacks

• Freddie Freeman
• DraftKings: $4,300
• FanDuel: $3,400
  
  
• Carlos Correa
• DraftKings: $3,400
• FanDuel: $2,500
  
  
• Masataka Yoshida
• DraftKings: $3,000
• FanDuel: $2,600
  
  

🎲 CONTEST STRATEGY

GPP (High-Risk)

• Winning a GPP contest requires exposure to the best offenses on a slate. The best way to do this is through stacking.
• The Top stacks on a slate are often offenses with high implied run totals, and filled with players who have high ISO and wOBA. 
• Maximizing correlation is key. On each website, you should play the maximum number of players allowed in a stack.
•  Play chalk pitchers with upside for high strikeout totals. Pitchers with high K/IP have the best upside, even if they aren’t huge favorites to get a win.
• Avoid hitters against your starting pitchers in this format.
  
  

Cash (Low-Risk)

• Look to roster starting pitchers on teams with a high win probability (moneyline -150 or better if possible). 
• Maximize plate appearances, use hitters who hit in the top half of the batting order.
• Be less afraid of exposure. It is okay if many people are taking similar players to you, especially your pitchers
  
  

💼 Bankroll

1-2 %

• Baseball has multiple slates every single day, so it is important to play the long game and not risk too much on a single contest.
• We will highlight when it is more appropriate to wager more.
  
  

👑 TYRANT’S FINAL WORD

MAKE SURE TO CHECK OUT ASL’s DFS OPTIMIZER TO BUILD THE BEST LINEUPS POSSIBLE!

We’ve gone from famine to feast.

After crawling through yesterday’s pint-sized slate, we’re now staring down a full buffet of options, and it’s glorious. There’s no singular “right way” to attack this one. You want to pay up for pitching? Great arms like Webb and Kremer sit there ready to anchor your builds. Prefer to go value and load up on bats? We’ve got Zebby Matthews flashing ceiling at a discount and overlooked stacks like Baltimore and Houston brimming with upside.

Ownership will be spread, making today a perfect day to trust your process. Play the matchups. Correlate your stacks. Be willing to get a little weird. There are plenty of viable routes to the top of the leaderboard, and no shortage of traps if you get lazy.

It’s a full slate on Friday. Let’s get ruthless.