🗡️ THE FANTASY TYRANT’S DAILY DEBRIEF

Tuesday, July 24, 2025
Your ruthless roadmap to DFS conquest.

🎯 SLATE SNAPSHOT

• SLATE:
• Main Slate (6:40): 4 Games
• Late Night (8:10): 3 games
• Notable Lines:

• No team has a high/low betting line today

• Weather Watch:
• No likely impacts
  
  

💰HIGHEST/LOWEST IMPLIED RUN TOTALS

 

🌦️ WEATHER IMPACT

• Weather delay/rainout highly unlikely  
• 12.5 MPH wings doing right to left in Blue Jays @ Tigers
  
  
  

🔥 STACK BREAKDOWNS

🏰 CHALK STACK: Angels

The Angels top the board with a 5.0 implied run total, which is the highest on the slate, and for good reason. Rookie Logan Evans is slated to toe the rubber for Seattle, and while he’s survived his first 10 MLB starts with a 3.88 ERA, all signs point to regression knocking hard at the door.

Starting with the peripherals, a 5.55 xERA and 4.78 FIP tell a more accurate tale. Evans has managed just a 17% strikeout rate while living in the 15th percentile or worse for xBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate allowed. He also doesn’t have a real out pitch and struggles to generate grounders. The guy’s essentially been dancing in traffic and hasn’t been hit yet; that’s bound to change.

Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Zach Neto, and Nolan Schanuel all boast OPS marks above .800 against righties this season. Yoan Moncada has quietly been productive, and Taylor Ward has reawakened over the last month. You can even mix in Travis d’Arnaud if he cracks the lineup; he’s been mashing in this split at home, albeit with playing time volatility.

The only real knock here is price, but with soft pitching up and down the board, you don’t need an insane outburst to justify the spend. Despite the raw power and favorable conditions, there’s also some built-in leverage: the Angels’ high K-rate (25.1% vs RHP) may keep some players away.

Evans is a feel-good story, but he’s walking into a hot lineup, a bad matchup, and a potentially short leash. Stack the Halos aggressively.

⚔️ GPP STACK: Tigers

The Tigers come into today with an implied run total of 4.9, just behind the Angels, but they are severely under-owned, in my opinion. The Tigers rake against lefties. Detroit ranks 5th in wRC+ (112) and 2nd in batting average (.273) when facing southpaws this season. That’s not noise, that’s a trend, and they get a perfect target in journeyman Eric Lauer.

Lauer’s recent 3.38 ERA and decent K-rate this month might fool box-score chasers, but the underlying metrics are far less flattering. He ranks in the bottom 10th percentile for average exit velocity allowed and owns the fourth-highest fly-ball rate among all pitchers with 60+ innings. That combo, loud contact and high launch, is gasoline on DFS fire.

Let’s also not forget Lauer’s globe-trotting struggles. In the last 18 months, he’s been DFA’d by Milwaukee, flamed out in Triple-A for the Pirates, dumped by Houston, revived in the KBO (where he won the Korean Series, cool story), and now finds himself back in an MLB rotation by the grace of Toronto’s pitching depth, or lack thereof. 

As for the bats? Spencer Torkelson (.420 wOBA vs LHP) and Gleyber Torres (.398 xwOBA vs LHP) headline this stack with legitimate power and palatable salaries. But the real value sits deeper in the order. Wenceel Perez (.456 xwOBA vs LHP) is a criminally underpriced switch-hitter. Jahmai Jones (.381 xwOBA vs LHP) offers elite value on FanDuel if he starts, and even if he’s platooned, two shots at Lauer might be all he needs. Then there’s Zach McKinstry (.378xwOBA vs LHP) and Javy Báez (.351xwOBA vs LHP), both platoon split-success stories priced like roster filler.

If Kerry Carpenter (hamstring) returns, he adds even more juice to the stack. But even without him, this Detroit group checks every GPP box: low ownership, top implied run total, legit power, and a soft-tossing fly-ball pitcher on the other side

 

🔒 PITCHING PILLARS

💰Cash Game Bet: Yusei Kikuchi

• Fan Duel: $9,400
• DraftKings: $8,300
• Exposure: High

Welcome to Thursday’s DFS famine. With just four games on the main slate, we’re left with a skeleton crew of pitching options, and no true ace to speak of. By default, the top of the board is Yusei Kikuchi, and while he’s not exactly a fire-breathing monster, he’s what passes for a frontline option tonight.

His 3.13 ERA looks clean enough, and the 24.4% K-rate is solid for DFS purposes. But dig deeper and the shine fades fast: a 4.26 xERA, 4.27 SIERA, and .290 xwOBA allowed all scream “regression candidate.”

Still, he’s got the matchup… sort of. The Mariners have been roughly 10% worse against lefties than righties this season (90 wRC+ vs LHP), and they're not the fearsome bunch they once were. That said, they don’t whiff much, just a 20.0% K-rate against southpaws. That puts a cap on Kikuchi’s upside unless he’s pinpoint sharp.

He’s now 34, coming off his second career All-Star nod, and making his first start since the break against the team that gave him his MLB debut. But know that it’s a play born of context, not conviction. Kikuchi’s range of outcomes is wide, and the Mariners’ heart of the order (Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Cal Raleigh) can punish mistakes.

It’s ugly. It’s chalky. And yet it might still be optimal.

🎯 GPP Play: Sonny Gray

• Fan Duel: $9,500
• DraftKings: $9,500
• Exposure: Med 

Gray's 4.03 ERA doesn’t exactly scream “ace,” but dig a little deeper and you’ll see the truth. His xFIP (3.03) and SIERA (3.10) both sit a full run lower, telling us he’s been more unlucky than ineffective. Pair that with a slate-best 27.2% strikeout rate, and you’ve got the kind of upside most of these other arms can only dream about.

That said, it’s not all smooth sailing. First issue? The Padres. While San Diego ranks just below league average in wRC+ against righties (98), they make a ton of contact, with the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league, which caps Gray’s ceiling a bit. And when strikeouts are the calling card, that’s a problem.

Issue #2? The price tag. At $9,500 on both platforms, he’s way up there as the most expensive option. His projected ownership thought lags behind the other top options, making him much more appealing in large-field GPPs than in tight cash game builds.

And hey, let’s not sugarcoat it, Gray got shelled his last time out. Couldn’t survive the 4th inning. Gave up nine runs in 3.1 innings to Arizona. Brutal. But before that, he tossed three innings in a rain-shortened game right before the All-Star break, so you could argue he’s had an extended rest, and at age 35, he might need it.

Here’s the thing, though: volatility is part of the package. Gray’s given up 5+ earned runs in four starts this year, but he’s also held opponents scoreless in six, with five more outings allowing just one or two. If you want a safe floor, maybe look elsewhere. But if you’re swinging for the fences in tournaments? Gray’s got the tools and the matchup to nuke the slate.

🧨 Bargain Bet: Jason Alexander / Luis Severino

On a slate this small, value picks can be essential. Since FanDuel and DraftKings priced things very differently tonight, I’m giving you two options, one per site, that fit the bill if you’re desperate for salary relief.

• Jason Alexander: FanDuel: $5,500
• Luis Severino: DraftKings: $6,000
• Exposure: Low 

🔥 Jason Alexander
No, not the guy who played George Costanza, Alexander is the FanDuel value play of the night, clocking in at a comical $2,400 less than Severino. The Brewers righty has only made one start this season (plus some mop-up work out of the ‘pen), and it hasn’t been pretty: 15 innings, 14 earned runs, and an 11:10 K:BB ratio that’ll make your eyes water.

But let’s zoom in. Nine of those runs came in one nightmare relief outing against the Dodgers. Since then? He’s stabilized, allowing just five hits and two earned runs across his last nine innings. That includes a gem in his lone 2025 start… against the Athletics. And guess who he gets again tonight? The A’s return, carrying the league’s 9th-highest K-rate against righties (22.4%) and a mediocre 102 wRC+ since June 1. It’s not a layup, but it’s not a disaster, either. 

You can’t trust him in a cash game, but in GPPs where you want to jam in premium bats? There are far worse ways to save.

💸 Luis Severino
Over on DraftKings, Sevy’s the discount bin darling. Priced $1,800 below Alexander there, he’s a viable SP2 if you’re bargain-hunting.

Yes, his 5.10 ERA is rough. Yes, his strikeout rate has dropped to 15.9%, a far cry from his peak Bronx Bomber days. But there’s a case to be made here.

Severino’s road ERA is a tidy 3.10, compared to 6.97 at home. And there’s good reason: the A’s temporary home in Sacramento plays like Diet Coors Field. But tonight, they’re in Houston, and the ball won’t fly like it does in the Central Valley. Now, his FIP splits tell a more balanced story (4.37 home vs 4.43 road), so we’re not expecting a miracle, but even a meh outing gets the job done at this price.

He also gets a mostly right-handed Astros lineup that’s missing Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers and Isaac Paredes. That's a lot of missing bats and makes the Astros lineup nowhere near as scary as usual. Severino has also been open about wanting a trade, and he knows every start counts to showcase his value.

Strikeout upside isn’t what it used to be, but the Astros' patchwork lineup offers chances: Cam Smith (28.2% K%), Christian Walker (28.0%), and fill-ins like Taylor Trammell, Cooper Hummel, and Zack Short are all gettable.

Sevy probably won’t win you the slate… but if you need a decently high floor outing in a hitter-heavy build, he’s more than capable.

🔨 ONE-OFF OFFENSIVE HAMMERS

Top Batters Today Not In Stacks

• Zach Neto
• DraftKings: $5,300
• FanDuel: $3,500
• Nick Kurtz
• DraftKings: $4,900
• FanDuel: $3,900
• Brent Rooker
• DraftKings: $4,600
• FanDuel: $3,400
  
  

Best Value Hitters Today Not In Stacks

• Brendan Donovan
• DraftKings: $4,000
• FanDuel: $3,000
  
  
• Luis Arraez
• DraftKings: $3,800
• FanDuel: $3,000
  
  
• Mitch Garver
• DraftKings: $3,000
• FanDuel: $2,500
  
  

🎲 CONTEST STRATEGY

GPP (High-Risk)

• Winning a GPP contest requires exposure to the best offenses on a slate. The best way to do this is through stacking.
• The Top stacks on a slate are often offenses with high implied run totals, and filled with players who have high ISO and wOBA. 
• Maximizing correlation is key. On each website, you should play the maximum number of players allowed in a stack.
•  Play chalk pitchers with upside for high strikeout totals. Pitchers with high K/IP have the best upside, even if they aren’t huge favorites to get a win.
• Avoid hitters against your starting pitchers in this format.
  
  

Cash (Low-Risk)

• Look to roster starting pitchers on teams with a high win probability (moneyline -150 or better if possible). 
• Maximize plate appearances, use hitters who hit in the top half of the batting order.
• Be less afraid of exposure. It is okay if many people are taking similar players to you, especially your pitchers
  
  

💼 Bankroll

1-2 %

• Baseball has multiple slates every single day, so it is important to play the long game and not risk too much on a single contest.
• We will highlight when it is more appropriate to wager more.
  
  

👑 TYRANT’S FINAL WORD

MAKE SURE TO CHECK OUT ASL’s DFS OPTIMIZER TO BUILD THE BEST LINEUPS POSSIBLE!

• Small slates are a different beast. They punish the lazy and reward the sharp, not necessarily with high scores, but with the right ones. There's less room for error, less opportunity for leverage, and fewer paths to differentiation. Everyone’s fishing in the same tiny pond… the question is, are you casting where the others aren’t?
• You need to be right about your stack today. This is where slate discipline matters. Only get off the chalk if you have a good reason, not just to be cute. Embrace volatility, but don’t chase nonsense. 
• And above all: be comfortable being uncomfortable. These slates aren’t about playing the best plays. They’re about knowing when the best plays are actually traps.
• So sharpen the sword. And remember: fortune favors the ruthless.