🗡️ THE FANTASY TYRANT’S DAILY DEBRIEF

Tuesday, July 23, 2025
Your ruthless roadmap to DFS conquest.

🎯 SLATE SNAPSHOT

• SLATE:
• Main Slate (6:40): 5 Games
• 3:10: 4 Games
• Notable Lines:
• Dodgers -222 (Tyler Glasnow)

• Rays -215 (Taj Bradley)

• Rangers -191 (Andre Pallante)

• Weather Watch:
• Chance of rainout in White Sox @ Rays
  
  

💰HIGHEST/LOWEST IMPLIED RUN TOTALS

🌦️ WEATHER IMPACT

• 50% chance of rain affecting White Sox @ Rays 
• Strong winds in Royals @ Cubs
• Wind blowing Right to Left strong
  
  
  

🔥 STACK BREAKDOWNS

🏰 CHALK STACK: Rays

It’s shaping up to be another muggy mess in Tampa. We’ve got a shot of rain in the early evening, but things should clear out enough to play. With both squads off tomorrow, they’ll be more willing to wait around for a window, though if it turns into a total wash, the teams do meet again in Chicago in September.

Jonathan Cannon toes the rubber for the White Sox, and while he’s done a decent job keeping the ball in the yard (1 HR allowed in his last 20.1 IP), the rest of the profile isn’t intimidating. He’s walked 9 and struck out just 12 over that stretch. 

Despite Brandon Lowe landing back on the IL and Ha-Seong Kim nursing a back issue, the Rays still make for a sneaky-good stack. Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, and Josh Lowe all mash righties, and all three have been scorching over the last 30 days. Yandy Díaz is still the glue guy, getting on base and driving the bus. On top of that, you have the speed demons in Jose Caballero and Chandler Simpson. Simpson swiped three more bags last night and now sits at 30 SB on the year, just two behind Caballero for the MLB lead. And remember, Simpson spent most of June in Triple-A! They get on one time, and it could be enough to make them profitable with that speed.

⚔️ GPP STACK: Yankees

​​Trying to project a Yankees lineup is like chasing shadows, but one thing feels certain tonight: they’d be foolish not to pack the order with lefties against Chris Bassitt. The veteran righty has handled right-handers just fine this season with a .280 wOBA allowed over 222 batters faced, but lefties have absolutely tattooed him for a .370 wOBA across 269 matchups. That’s a glaring split, and one New York is built to exploit due to their array of lefthanded hitting options.

The Yankees already rank fourth in MLB with a 129 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, and they’ve been striking out less recently, a key note considering Bassitt did fan nine of them earlier this month. That outing also came with 8 hits and 3 walks allowed, hardly dominant. Tonight, the conditions are ripe for New York to break through.

This lefty-heavy version of the Yanks could be a nightmare matchup for Bassitt, especially with guys like Cody Bellinger, Jasson Dominguez, and Trent Grisham lurking in the middle. Add in Aaron Judge’s ridiculous power and Ben Rice’s sneaky-good contact profile, and this becomes a high-upside DFS stack with legitimate slate-breaking potential.

🃏 VALUE STACK: Athletics

We’re not that far removed from Patrick Corbin being literally the worst pitcher on the worst contract in baseball. He posted a 5.71 ERA across 679 innings over the last four seasons. Sure, 2025 has looked better on the surface (3.91 ERA), but peel back the top layer, and it’s really not that impressive. His xERA sits at 4.44, he’s allowing a .276 xBA, and righties have hit him hard to the tune of a .277/.330/.428 slash.

Oakland is in a great spot here. The A’s have quietly been crushing lefties this month, posting a 145 wRC+ against southpaws, third-best in all of baseball. And while this game isn’t in cozy Sacramento, they could still be primed to raise Corbin’s ERA over 4.00

Corbin’s still prone to the long ball (14 HR allowed), and this young A’s lineup has some dudes who can punish mistakes. Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers bring legit power upside, while Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz have the contact skills to set the table and extend innings. If you’re looking for a value stack with upside, Oakland’s bats should be firmly on your radar.

🔒 PITCHING PILLARS

💰Safest Bet: Max Fried

• Fan Duel: $9,600
• DraftKings: $9,800
• Exposure: High 

Max Fried doesn’t come with gaudy strikeout upside tonight, but on a tight slate where blow-ups are lurking around every corner, he might be the most bankable arm on the board. Fried faces a pesky Blue Jays team that doesn’t go down easily. Toronto ranks dead last in K-rate against lefties this season (18.1%) and sits eighth overall with a 107 wRC+ vs. southpaws. Not ideal. 

But what Fried does bring is stability. He leads MLB with 11 wins (which is excellent, though we know wins are as sticky as pine tar in July), and more importantly, he ranks among the league’s elite in everything we can rely on. He’s in the 90th percentile or better in hard-hit suppression every year since 2019. This season, he’s in the 89th percentile in walk rate and the 88th in groundball rate, meaning he keeps the ball in the yard and avoids giving free passes.

He’s also absurdly efficient, averaging just 15.66 pitches per inning, and has made a living working deep into games without unraveling. That kind of inning-eating calm is worth its weight in DFS gold on a small slate.

The Yankees brought Fried in to be a frontline workhorse, and in this spot against Toronto, he’s your safest path to 6-7 clean frames with solid ratios. The Ks may not flow freely, but Fried’s rock-solid floor stands out in a sea of volatility tonight.

🎯 GPP Play: Jesus Luzardo

• Fan Duel: $9,700
• DraftKings: $8,500
• Exposure: Med 

If you’re looking to pivot off the chalk tonight, Jesus Luzardo makes for a sneaky tournament play. The lefty draws a Red Sox lineup that’s somehow scored just 15 total runs over their last seven games, and has been held to two runs or fewer in five of them. Sure, the Sox have some scary numbers overall against lefties this year (113 wRC+), but they’ve been tamer on the road (97 wRC+ and a 26.0% K-rate away from Fenway), which gives Luzardo some room to work.

Luzardo got lit up for 20 earned runs over two starts at the end of May, an absolute disaster stretch that had people wondering if he was tipping pitches. But since then, he’s stabilized, with a 2.79 ERA in his 18 other outings this year. The overall season ERA is still inflated (thanks to those two meltdowns), but the underlying skills are real with a 27.5% K-rate and 13.2% swinging strike rate.

Vegas is lukewarm, the Phils are -154 favorites, and the game total is a modest 8.5, but Luzardo has the strikeout juice to outperform his spot. He’s volatile, sure, but he’s also one of the few arms on this slate with legit 8+ K upside at a reasonable tag.

🧨 Bargain Bet: Slade Cecconi

• Fan Duel: $8,500
• DraftKings: $7,500
• Exposure: Low 

On a five-game slate that’s pretty barren up top for starting pitchers, Slade Cecconi stands out as one of the few legit value plays with a path to actual upside. He’s not usually a guy I’d peg as an SP1 anchor, but given the limited options and the price point, he’s in the conversation to be the slate-winning arm tonight.

Cecconi is coming off one of the weirdest stat lines of the season, he went a career-long 8.1 innings against Oakland and somehow gave up six earned runs, including three in the ninth after being sent back out with a big lead. Despite that late blowup, he still got the win, and the fact that Arizona let him go that deep tells us they trust him to handle volume.

The Orioles have gone ice cold lately, with just 3.3 runs per game over the last two weeks, which is the third-fewest in baseball. They’re hitting .232 during that stretch with a .281 wOBA and a 22.3% strikeout rate. That’s targetable.

On this small slate, where no ace feels safe and the mid-tier is shaky, Cecconi might be the guy who threads the needle. He’s cheap, he goes deep, and he’s facing a slumping lineup. That’s a DFS cocktail worth sipping.

🔨 ONE-OFF OFFENSIVE HAMMERS

Top Batters Today Not In Stacks

• Cody Bellinger
• DraftKings: $5,300
• FanDuel: $3,500
• Gunnar Henderson
• DraftKings: $4,500
• FanDuel: $3,400
• Wyatt Langford
• DraftKings: $4,200
• FanDuel: $3,400
  
  

Best Value Hitters Today Not In Stacks

• Jasson Dominguez
• DraftKings: $3,800
• FanDuel: $2,900
  
  
• J.T. Realmuto
• DraftKings: $3,400
• FanDuel: $2,900
  
  
• Andrew Benintendi
• DraftKings: $3,200
• FanDuel: $2,900
  
  

🎲 CONTEST STRATEGY

GPP (High-Risk)

• Winning a GPP contest requires exposure to the best offenses on a slate. The best way to do this is through stacking.
• The Top stacks on a slate are often offenses with high implied run totals, and filled with players who have high ISO and wOBA. 
• Maximizing correlation is key. On each website, you should play the maximum number of players allowed in a stack.
•  Play chalk pitchers with upside for high strikeout totals. Pitchers with high K/IP have the best upside, even if they aren’t huge favorites to get a win.
• Avoid hitters against your starting pitchers in this format.
  
  

Cash (Low-Risk)

• Look to roster starting pitchers on teams with a high win probability (moneyline -150 or better if possible). 
• Maximize plate appearances, use hitters who hit in the top half of the batting order.
• Be less afraid of exposure. It is okay if many people are taking similar players to you, especially your pitchers
  
  

💼 Bankroll

1-2 %

• Baseball has multiple slates every single day, so it is important to play the long game and not risk too much on a single contest.
• We will highlight when it is more appropriate to wager more.
  
  

👑 TYRANT’S FINAL WORD

MAKE SURE TO CHECK OUT ASL’s DFS OPTIMIZER TO BUILD THE BEST LINEUPS POSSIBLE!

• It’s a short slate, and short slates require sharp blades. With limited games, ownership condenses, value dries up fast, and one unexpected blow-up can send your entire build into the abyss. So today isn’t about hunting for ceiling alone, it’s about avoiding disaster.
• Max Fried feels like the closest thing to a security blanket, even if the Ks aren’t elite. Luzardo offers volatility but has a juicy matchup against a cold Boston team and still flashes ace-level stuff. And Slade Cecconi? He’s the slate-breaker in disguise. Cheap. Overlooked. Facing a cold Orioles offense. The path is there.
• Stacks are wide open, Yankees lefties are built to punish Bassitt, the A’s could torch a regression-bound Corbin, and Tampa’s top bats are in a prime spot to mash against Jonathan Cannon.
• Small slates are about leverage, precision, and staying ahead of the field. Take your shots, trust the data, and remember, on nights like this, one under-the-radar pick can win it all.
• See you at the top