🗡️ THE FANTASY TYRANT’S DAILY DEBRIEF

Tuesday, July 22, 2025
Your ruthless roadmap to DFS conquest.

🎯 SLATE SNAPSHOT

• SLATE:
• Main Slate: 10 Games
• 6:40 Turbo: 5 Games
• Late Night: 3 games
• Notable Lines:
• Cubs -250 (Matthew Boyd)

• Rays -231 (Drew Rasmussen)

• Rangers -228 (Jacob deGrom)

• Weather Watch:
• No likely impacts
• Low % chance of rain affecting White Sox @ Rays
  
  

💰HIGHEST/LOWEST IMPLIED RUN TOTALS

🌦️ WEATHER IMPACT

• Low % chance of rain affecting White Sox @ Rays 
• No plausible wind impact is likely for any game
  
  
  

🔥 STACK BREAKDOWNS

🏰 CHALK STACK: Cardinals

The Cardinals will live in this section all series long, and for good reason. They once again boast the slate’s highest implied total (6.5 runs). While their six-run showing yesterday felt underwhelming for DFS, that’s more about inflated Coors Field expectations than actual poor performance.

Tonight’s matchup is an absolute gift. They’ll face Bradley Blalock, who’s been getting rocked to the tune of a 9.97 ERA across 21.2 innings. And this isn’t just bad luck; his xFIP (5.16) and 2.49 HR/9 scream “attack me.” It’s been rough for him against both sides of the plate, so the whole Cardinals lineup is in play, and Colorado’s bullpen won't offer any relief.

This stack isn’t outrageous even with Coors pricing, especially with many of St. Louis’ lefties banged up. Brendan Donovan and his four-position eligibility make him an easy plug-and-play, but anyone 1-through-9 is in consideration. If you can’t jam in the top bats, the bottom of the order could be a sneaky low-owned value pivot.

Fitting them alongside the high-priced arms is tough, but that challenge should keep ownership in check. I want some exposure to the top offense on the slate, and if you’re fading them entirely, you better be real confident in your pivots.

⚔️ GPP STACK: Cubs

Rich Hill is back in Wrigley, and not in a nostalgic “cheers and applause” kind of way. The 45-year-old southpaw is set to make his 2024 debut… for his 14th MLB team… in his 21st season… and yes, that’s a real sentence. He’ll tie Edwin Jackson for the most teams played for in MLB history, which is both a trivia goldmine and a DFS green light.

Hill’s most recent work came at Triple-A Omaha, where he logged a 5.36 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 1.90 HR/9 across 42 innings, numbers that don’t exactly scream “major league ready.” The Royals are running him out there anyway, and that puts the Cubs firmly in the stacking spotlight tonight.

Carson Kelly (117 wRC+, .194 ISO), Seiya Suzuki (150 wRC+, .282 ISO vs. LHP), and Matt Shaw (114 wRC+, .190 ISO) have all punished lefties this year. And if Pete Crow-Armstrong is back in the lineup after resting a bruised knee, he’s a stealth play with real upside as he crushes same-side pitching along with Kyle Tucker.

You don’t need to go full 1-5 in the order either; this stack is deep. Depending on your site, mix in Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, or Dansby Swanson for some salary relief. Rich Hill might be a feel-good story, but I’ll gladly be the villain if it means stacking against a 45-year-old lefty with dusty Triple-A numbers.

🃏 VALUE STACK: Astros

Eduardo Rodriguez has been flat-out bad this year, a 5.94 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and 4.44 xERA through 80.1 innings. He’s giving up bombs to both sides of the plate (.369 wOBA, 1.71 HR/9 to righties; .424 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9 to lefties), and now he gets a date with a Houston team that thrives against southpaws.

The Astros rank 1st in wOBA (.343), 2nd in wRC+ (121), and 3rd in ISO (.195) vs. lefties this season. Due to a majority of their Opening Day lineup being on the IL, you can get some excellent value even with the great matchup.

Guys like Yainer Diaz, Jose Altuve, and Cam Smith bring legit pop, and platoon bats like Mauricio Dubon, Chas McCormick, and Cooper Hummel have done damage vs. lefties. Christian Walker revenge narrative? Sure, why not? Even if the numbers vs. LHP haven’t popped lately, he’s still in play on the late slate.

Houston won’t draw nearly the same ownership as both sides of the Coors Field game, but they offer significant upside against a pitcher giving up almost two homers per nine. If you’re multi-entering or playing late contests, this kind of contrarian value stack can break the slate wide open.

🔒 PITCHING PILLARS

💰Safest Bet: Jacob deGrom

• Fan Duel: $11,000
• DraftKings: $9,800
• Exposure: Medium 

I trust Jacob deGrom like few others in this game. The future Hall of Famer makes his third start of the season and already has 11.1 innings of two-run ball against Oakland under his belt. He’s 9-2 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in the year. Both marks rank 4th-best in MLB, and he’s doing it all at age 37, as if it’s still 2018.

Now, to be clear, the matchup isn’t a gimme. The A’s aren’t pushovers against righties, they rank 13th in wRC+ (103) and have a middle-of-the-road 22.3% K-rate. That said, deGrom doesn’t need a cupcake matchup to get the job done. He’s so efficient that he can go 6-7 innings on 90 pitches and still return value, even without a huge K ceiling. The Rangers are -250 favorites in a game, so the win bonus is also very live.

The bottom line is that he’s not the slate-breaker he once was, but deGrom is still as bankable as they come.

🎯 GPP Play: Matthew Boyd

• Fan Duel: $9,900
• DraftKings: $8,900
• Exposure: Med 

Today's top-priced pitchers are worthy, but Matt Boyd feels like the forgotten man who could quietly outproduce most of them. He’s not a flashy play, but he’s in form, the matchup is right, and the field probably won’t chase him at any meaningful clip.

Boyd has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine straight starts, and he’s only failed to reach five innings twice during that stretch. This is the healthiest, most consistent version of Boyd we’ve seen in years, and it earned him his first All-Star nod at age 34. He’s already thrown 111.2 innings, his most since 2019, and he’s doing it with command and efficiency: 3.32 xERA, a 91st percentile walk-rate, and a strong 29.9% chase rate.

Now he gets a Royals team with just a .290 wOBA and 81 wRC+ vs. lefties. They also chase a ton, which is the fourth-highest swing rate on pitches outside the zone, which plays directly into Boyd’s strengths.

The lineup has some dangerous names. Bobby Witt Jr. is elite, Maikel Garcia is solid, and Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone bring raw power, but there are real holes. Salvador Perez looks like he’s aged a decade overnight, and the back half of the order (Nick Loftin, Freddy Fermin, Tyler Tolbert) looks more Triple-A than MLB. The Royals carry just a 3.6 implied run total and are significant underdogs, making Boyd a strong bet for a win.

Boyd’s underlying metrics, recent form, and the Royals’ profile all point toward another efficient, low-scoring outing.

🧨 Bargain Bet: Frankie Montas

• Fan Duel: $7,700
• DraftKings: $7,800
• Exposure: Low 

Frankie Montas is definitely a wildcard, but he’s an interesting one, and on a slate where most of the low implied team totals are facing fantasy aces, Montas is the one mid-range guy in a juicy spot.

The Angels have a meager 3.6 implied run total, and while they have some power, they’ve also been striking out at a heavy clip, 25.3% vs. righties on the season. Montas isn’t what he once was, but the fastball still sits at 96 mph, and he’s done a great job limiting self-inflicted damage with a tidy 4.9% walk rate. If he’s keeping runners off base, the solo shots aren’t as devastating.

Through four starts since returning, Montas has gone at least five innings in three of them, and he's been flashing signs of life. His swinging strike rate is hovering around 11%, and his pitch count is back in a reasonable range, giving him a legit path to five-plus Ks and a win if things break right.

You're not asking him to dominate at his price, just to survive, pick up some strikeouts, and give you a shot at the win bonus. And with the Mets favored in the game (-172), he’s well-positioned to do exactly that.

Montas is the kind of GPP play that can really pop. He’s got velocity, efficiency, and a strikeout-prone opponent. Just know the risk is baked in with his fly ball tendencies and home run issues. If you’re paying down at SP2 on DraftKings or hunting value arms on FanDuel, this is one of the better ways to go contrarian without getting too reckless.

🔨 ONE-OFF OFFENSIVE HAMMERS

Top Batters Today Not In Stacks

• George Springer
• DraftKings: $5,000
• FanDuel: $3,500

• Christian Yelich
• DraftKings: $4,400
• FanDuel: $3,400

• Mickey Moniak
• DraftKings: $4,200
• FanDuel: $3,400
  
  

Best Value Hitters Today Not In Stacks

• Adolis Garcia
• DraftKings: $3,800
• FanDuel: $2,800

• Giancarlo Stanton
• DraftKings: $3,700
• FanDuel: $3,200
  
  
• Andrew Benintendi
• DraftKings: $3,200
• FanDuel: $3,000
  
  

🎲 CONTEST STRATEGY

GPP (High-Risk)

• Winning a GPP contest requires exposure to the best offenses on a slate. The best way to do this is through stacking.
• The Top stacks on a slate are often offenses with high implied run totals, and filled with players who have high ISO and wOBA. 
• Maximizing correlation is key. On each website, you should play the maximum number of players allowed in a stack.
•  Play chalk pitchers with upside for high strikeout totals. Pitchers with high K/IP have the best upside, even if they aren’t huge favorites to get a win.
• Avoid hitters against your starting pitchers in this format.
  
  

Cash (Low-Risk)

• Look to roster starting pitchers on teams with a high win probability (moneyline -150 or better if possible). 
• Maximize plate appearances, use hitters who hit in the top half of the batting order.
• Be less afraid of exposure. It is okay if many people are taking similar players to you, especially your pitchers
  
  

💼 Bankroll

1-2 %

• Baseball has multiple slates every single day, so it is important to play the long game and not risk too much on a single contest.
• We will highlight when it is more appropriate to wager more.
  
  

👑 TYRANT’S FINAL WORD

• We’re officially in the post-ASB sprint, where the contenders separate from the pretenders, and your DFS lineups should follow suit. It’s a weird slate today. We have elite arms in high-leverage spots, soft targets for mid-tier pitchers, and value stacks that feel almost too obvious (hello, Coors and Royals pitching). Ownership will cluster, but there’s sneaky leverage if you look in the right places.
• Stacks will be chalky in all the usual places, but there’s room to get different without getting dumb. Bullpens are fresh after the break, so look for teams to use them.
• Also, don’t sleep on the motivation angle. The trade deadline is looming. Some of these fringe teams are showcasing guys. Some hitters are pressing to stay off the block. Some are quietly putting together stretches that look spicy when we’re combing through second-half trends in late August. There's opportunity in the chaos.
• Let the fish chase last night’s box scores. We’re out here hunting leverage and finding edges. It’s good to be ruthless.
• This slate is wide open. Make sharp bets, stay disciplined, and above all, rule your roster.