🗡️ THE FANTASY TYRANT’S DAILY DEBRIEF

Monday, July 21, 2025
Your ruthless roadmap to DFS conquest.

🎯 SLATE SNAPSHOT

• SLATE:

• Main Slate: 10 Games

• 6:40 Turbo: 5 Games

• Late Night: 3 games

• Notable Lines:

• Brewers and Mariners betting favorites to win despite extremely low projected run totals

• Weather Watch:

• No likely impacts

💰Notable BETTING LINES + IMPLIED TOTALS

🌦️ WEATHER IMPACT

• No likely rainouts occurring

• No plausible wind impact is likely for any game
  
  

🔥 STACK BREAKDOWNS

🏰 CHALK STACK: Rays

Sean Burke gets the ball for the White Sox tonight, and while he has not been completely horrible this year, boasting a 4.36 ERA, his 5.41 xERA with underwhelming metrics shows little upside. 

This is an excellent spot for Tampa bats. Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero all crush right-handed pitching, and they get a park boost at Steinbrenner Field. If you want to go full stack, toss in Josh Lowe or Chandler Simpson; both bring speed and wraparound potential. Once Burke eventually exits, it only gets more favorable for the Rays as the White Sox bullpen is a combination of untested kids and guys barely clinging to MLB jobs. There’s no rescue squad coming. Stack the Rays and don’t overthink it.

⚔️ GPP STACK: Dodgers

It’s weird to call the Dodgers a contrarian stack, but they are today. A massive chunk of the slate is taking one, or both, of the teams from the Coors field game. 

The Dodgers have been in a funk, getting swept in three of their last four series and going 2-10 over that stretch, scoring two runs or fewer in seven of those games. Still, despite the summer spiral, they’re only two games behind Detroit for the best record in baseball and have outscored everyone on the season. The talent is still obviously there.

They’ll face David Festa, who has a mix of wildness and volatility. He’s sporting a 5.25 ERA, which is even worse when you consider his last seven appearances included two 8-run blowups and a 6.69 ERA over that stretch. He also walks a lot of batters, with an 8.7% walk rate. He’s recently kept the ball in the park, but that could easily end in this matchup.

Outside of Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith, Dodgers bats are surprisingly affordable. Michael Conforto should bat in the middle of the lineup, and you can pair him with Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. This could be an incredible time to roll with LA at reduced ownership.

🃏 VALUE STACK: Rockies

Despite being baseball’s worst team this year, Coors Field always gives them some life in DFS. It’s still the most hitter-friendly park in the league, and Colorado is projected for the third most runs tonight, which jumps out given how cheap this lineup is across the board. The pitching matchup is very promising as Michael McGreevy comes in, only making 4 starts this season, and hasn’t made one since June 24th. In his 3 starts in June, he is pitching to a 5.74 ERA. Not exactly a shutdown arm.

Hunter Goodman is the first name you should lock in if you're going here. He leads the team in almost every hitting category, and since June 2, he’s hitting .303 with a 1.030 OPS. Tyler Freeman has been getting it done in the leadoff spot, and Ryan McMahon continues to be the steady heart-of-the-order option, posting a .849 OPS at home. You’re not targeting the Rockies because they’re good, you’re targeting them because they’re cheap, at Coors, and facing a hittable pitcher.

🔒 PITCHING PILLARS

💰Best Bet: Brandon Woodruff 

• Fan Duel: $10,800

• DraftKings: $9,600

• Exposure: High 

It’s great to have Brandon Woodruff back. Injuries have limited him to just 13 starts over the past two-plus seasons, but he’s already showing signs of the dominant form we remember. In two starts this year, he’s racked up 18 strikeouts and zero walks over 10.1 innings, posting a ridiculous 47% K-rate while allowing just three earned runs (all on solo homers).

He gets a great setup tonight, pitching in T-Mobile Park, the most homer-suppressing baseball venue. That’s key for someone easing back into a full workload. His pitch count is expected to be stretched more, as the all-star break allowed 9 days of rest. And while his fastball is sitting about two MPH lower than it was in his last fully healthy season, he’s still generating whiffs at an elite level.

The matchup also does him plenty of favors as Seattle strikes out at the second-highest rate in baseball at home, and their offense takes a big step back in that park. The price tag is steep, but the pitch count isn’t a significant concern, and the upside is obvious. If you’re paying up for an arm tonight, Woodruff is a strong anchor.

🎯 GPP Play: Shane Baz

• Fan Duel: $9,600

• DraftKings: $9,000

• Exposure: Med 

Shane Baz was once one of baseball's most hyped pitching prospects, and he’s finally showing why. He’s been rock solid for Tampa this season, allowing three runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. Even better, he’s flashed real DFS upside, topping 27 DraftKings points in three of his previous five outings, which is elite for a pitcher in this price range.

He draws a dream home matchup against the White Sox, who rank in the bottom three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA since the start of last season. On top of that, the Rays enter as a -235 favorite, and Chicago's projected lineup has a brutal .124 ISO. The only drawback is Baz’s home vs. road splits, as Baz has a 5.47 ERA at Steinbrenner Field compared to a 2.91 ERA on the road. The horrible White Sox gives me confidence that he can buck that trend though. 

🧨 Bargain Bet: Jacob Lopez

• Fan Duel: $7,700

• DraftKings: $6,800

• Exposure: Low 

This is definitely a risky play, but Jacob Lopez is too cheap to ignore. What makes him so appealing for DFS is the strikeout upside. He’s carrying a 27.9% K rate on the season, along with a  3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last eight starts.

The matchup also lines up. He gets the Texas Rangers, who have been underwhelming at the plate all season, ranking 25th in wOBA, 26th in OBP, 24th in runs scored, and 27th in OPS. Even coming out of the break, they managed just seven runs in three games against Detroit, and they chase pitches at the fifth-highest rate in baseball, playing right into Lopez’s strengths as he has an 80th percentile whiff rate.

He’s also been strong at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 80th percentile of the league in Barrel%, Average Exit velocity, and Hard Hit Rate.

At this price, you’re not getting safety, you’re getting upside. But in tournaments, Lopez makes a great SP2 or dart-throw pivot with real strikeout juice in a beatable matchup.

🔨 ONE-OFF OFFENSIVE HAMMERS

Top Batters Today Not In Stacks

• Fernando Tatis Jr.

• DraftKings: $5,300

• FanDuel: $3,600

• Nick Kurtz

• DraftKings: $4,500

• FanDuel: $3,700

• Willy Adames

• DraftKings: $4,200

• FanDuel: $2,900

Best Value Hitters

• Nolan Schanuel

• DraftKings: $3,900

• FanDuel: $2,900

• Colt Keith

• DraftKings: $3,600

• FanDuel: $2,700

• Bryan Reynolds

• DraftKings: $3,400

• FanDuel: $2,900
  
  

🎲 CONTEST STRATEGY

GPP (High-Risk)

• Winning a GPP contest requires exposure to the best offenses on a slate. The best way to do this is through stacking.

• The Top stacks on a slate are often offenses with high implied run totals, and filled with players who have high ISO and wOBA. 

• Maximizing correlation is key. On each website, you should play the maximum number of players allowed in a stack.

•  Play chalk pitchers with upside for high strikeout totals. Pitchers with high K/IP have the best upside, even if they aren’t huge favorites to get a win.

• Avoid hitters against your starting pitchers in this format. 

Cash (Low-Risk)

• Look to roster starting pitchers on teams with a high win probability (moneyline -150 or better if possible). 

• Maximize plate appearances, use hitters who hit in the top half of the batting order.

• Be less afraid of exposure. It is okay if many people are taking similar players to you, especially your pitchers

💼 Bankroll

1-2 %

• Baseball has multiple slates every single day, so it is important to play the long game and not risk too much on a single contest.

• We will highlight when it is more appropriate to wager more.

👑 TYRANT’S FINAL WORD

• Tonight’s slate offers a perfect storm of opportunity, the Dodgers get a volatile rookie, the Rockies are cheap and in Coors, and the Rays face a bullpen made of duct tape.

• Pitching is the real separator tonight. Woodruff is expensive, but he’s earned it and gets a strikeout-prone Mariners team in the league’s most pitcher-friendly park. Baz is in an even better matchup against a broken White Sox offense, and Lopez, while risky, offers massive K upside against a Rangers team that’s been chasing everything. Each arm brings a different kind of edge, and finding the right stack with them could be very fruitful.

• If you're playing tournaments, get weird where it makes sense—stack the bottom of the Dodgers lineup, pivot to cheap Guardians or Rockies, and trust the Rays chalk when needed. If you're in cash games, stay clean, acknowledge the floor, eat the chalk, and don't overthink it.

• This slate is wide open. Make sharp bets, stay disciplined, and above all, rule your roster.