🗡️ THE FANTASY TYRANT’S DAILY DEBRIEF

Friday, July 18, 2025
Your ruthless roadmap to DFS conquest.

🎯 SLATE SNAPSHOT

• SLATE:

• Main Slate: 11 Games

• 6:40 Turbo: 3 Games

• Notable Lines:

• Phillies biggest favorite (Jesus Luzardo)

• Dodgers big favorite (Tyler Glasnow)

• Weather Watch:

• No likely impacts

💰Notable BETTING LINES + IMPLIED TOTALS

🌦️ WEATHER IMPACT

• San Diego @ Washington: Possible rain delay, unlikely though

• No plausible wind impact is likely for any game
  
  

🔥 STACK BREAKDOWNS

🏰 CHALK STACK: Twins

The Twins sit at the top of tonight’s slate in team runs. They get a big boost from hitting on the road in Coors Field, and they draw a prime matchup against a pretty mediocre lefty in Kyle Freeland. Freeland enters with an ugly 1.54 WHIP and is giving up a career-worst 44% Hard Contact Rate, not exactly ideal in Denver. 

You’ll want to load up on right-handed bats here. Guys like Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, and Carlos Correa are all core pieces as they all carry at least a .195 ISO in this matchup. Guys like Royce Lewis, Willi Casto, and Ty France are also lower-value plays.

⚔️ GPP STACK: Dodgers

Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernández have been brutal against righties over the past month, collectively posting a sub-.080 ISO and sub-.230 wOBA. The only guy still doing damage is Shohei Ohtani, who remains elite, along with Will Smith. With Max Muncy and Kiké Hernández both on the IL, we’ll likely see Tommy Edman and Andy Pages in the lineup. Edman’s been cold himself, but Pages is an intriguing GPP dart.

Because of the slump, Dodgers' salaries have dropped across the board, outside of Ohtani, you’re getting major discounts. That opens up a sneaky path tonight: the bottom of the order, Andy Pages, Michael Conforto, Tommy Edman, and Hyeseong Kim, makes for a dirt-cheap stack on all the major DFS sites.

Quinn Priester isn’t a pushover matchup, but he’s far from dominant. He’s rocking a sub-30th percentile average exit velocity and a below-average hard-hit rate, making him vulnerable to barrels if the Dodgers wake up. Milwaukee’s bullpen is fully rested, so there’s no guarantee Priester wears it if he struggles, but depending on how aggressive Pat Murphy is, LA could still do damage if they turn the lineup over a few times.

🃏 VALUE STACK: Guardians

The Guardians make for a really strong value stack, whether you're pairing them with the Twins or another high-priced build, or running them solo if you’re jamming in elite arms. 

J.P. Sears, their opponent, has been serviceable overall with a 4.79 ERA and 4.88 FIP, but it's been rough on the road and of late. He’s posted a 6.29 ERA and 5.86 FIP over his last 10, giving up 13 home runs and a 40.6% hard-hit rate in that stretch.

You start any Cleveland stack with José Ramirez, as he’s always a great option. On top of that Angel Martinez is a strong value play hitting right ahead of him. Carlos Santana, Brayan Rocchio, and David Fry round out the stack as all affordable bats with upside against Sears.

🔒 PITCHING PILLARS

💰Best Bet: Spencer Strider 

• Fan Duel: $10,200

• DraftKings: $9,000

• Exposure: High (~50%)

Strider’s fastball has been in the mid-90s, and while this is down a couple of ticks from his last healthy season in 2023, the gap is narrowing. He has had 50 strikeouts over his last 36.2 innings and in that stretch has had a 2.95 ERA, 2.48 FIP and 2.55 xFIP, so it is easy to understand his popularity.

The bottom of the order is where Strider will need to make his bones against New York, picking on Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and the slumping Paul Goldschmidt. The projected lineup has a 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which plays right into the strength of Strider, who has a 29.0% combined strikeout rate in the same timeframe. 

🎯 GPP Play: Luis Castillo

• Fan Duel: $8,800

• DraftKings: $8,500

• Exposure: Med (~20%)

Despite some regression in his strikeout productivity, Castillo maintains a 3.41 ERA and good splits vs. righties (23.9% K rate). Tonight, he pitches at T-Mobile Park, the most pitcher-friendly venue in MLB, against an Astros lineup that isn’t that deep. Despite the dip in Ks, he has increased his ground ball rate to over 40% and could easily put up a good showing against this Astros team. He has a high floor with medium upside, which is great for any cash game.

🧨 Bargain Bet: Brandon Walter

• Fan Duel:$8,500

• DraftKings: $7,700

• Exposure: Low (<10%)

Walter has been impressive since joining Houston’s rotation: 2.97 SIERA, 2.91 xFIP, 24.2% K-rate, and 7 straight quality starts before the break. Also pitching in the friendly T-Mobile Park, Walter should do well as his 47% ground ball rate plays well against this Mariners lineup. While not overpowering metrics, his 5.8% barrel rate and 96th percentile Avg-Exit-Velo-Against are quite impressive and show his ability to limit hard contact. Pair that with one of the best BB rates in baseball (1.2%), and you will have a promising profile for success.

🔨 ONE-OFF OFFENSIVE HAMMERS

Top Batters Today Not In Stacks

• Ronald Acuna Jr.

• DraftKings: $6,200

• FanDuel: $4,700

• Cody Bellinger

• DraftKings: $5,100

• FanDuel: $3,400

• Christian Yelich

• DraftKings: $4,600

• FanDuel: $3,600

Best Value Hitters

• Adolis Garcia

• DraftKings: $3,900

• FanDuel: $3,000

• Ramon Laureano

• DraftKings: $3,900

• FanDuel: $3000

• Alec Burleson

• DraftKings: $3,700

• FanDuel: $2900
  
  

🎲 CONTEST STRATEGY

GPP (High-Risk)

• Winning a GPP contest requires exposure to the best offenses on a slate. The best way to do this is through stacking.

• The Top stacks on a slate are often offenses with high implied run totals, and filled with players who have high ISO and wOBA. 

• Maximizing correlation is key. On each website, you should play the maximum number of players allowed in a stack.

•  Play chalk pitchers with upside for high strikeout totals. Pitchers with high K/IP have the best upside, even if they aren’t huge favorites to get a win.

• Avoid hitters against your starting pitchers in this format. 
  

Cash (Low-Risk)

• Look to roster starting pitchers on teams with a high win probability (moneyline -150 or better if possible). 

• Maximize plate appearances, use hitters who hit in the top half of the batting order.

• Be less afraid of exposure. It is okay if many people are taking similar players to you, especially your pitchers
  

💼 Bankroll

1-2 %

• Baseball has multiple slates every single day, so it is important to play the long game and not risk too much on a single contest.
• We will highlight when it is more appropriate to wager more.

👑 TYRANT’S FINAL WORD

• Wasn’t it weird without regular baseball for 4 whole days! Be excited, we are back! 
• We are now in the second half of the season. Trust what you’ve observed so far this season. I am more likely to trust trends I've seen throughout the season and dismiss them less as fluky. 
• After the break, teams will have their full bullpen arsenals rested, expect them to use them, and try to avoid platoon-specific hitters.