Welcome to this week’s Market Movers! Each week, I’ll break down whether I’m buying or selling certain players based on their season-long performance or current hot/cold streaks. To be clear, selling doesn’t always mean I think the player is about to fall off a cliff. It often just means I think now might be the perfect time to cash in before their value drops.
People tend to forget just how long the baseball season is, and stats can shift dramatically over time. It’s tough to stay level-headed, especially early in the year, when a hot streak can spark overconfidence or a slump can cause panic. But those moments of overreaction create windows of opportunity for savvy managers.
Buys
Buy: Juan Soto
Juan Soto is experiencing a disappointing 2025 season so far, batting just .232 with a suppressed on-base and slugging line, but his advanced metrics suggest a strong rebound is coming. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is an impressive .431, significantly higher than his actual production, highlighting that his underlying contact quality and plate discipline remain elite. He boasts a fly ball xwOBA near .713, ranking among the best, indicating his power potential remains intact despite current struggles. Soto’s barrel rate and hard-hit rate rank in the top percentiles league-wide, confirming his ability to make quality contact. Historically, Soto has been one of the premier hitters in baseball with an OPS+ in the company of some of the greatest hitters in baseball history. Now in a potent Mets lineup alongside players like Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, he benefits from lineup protection and ample RBI opportunities. For fantasy owners, this combination of strong underlying skills, a solid supporting cast, and a track record of elite production makes him a prime buy-low candidate. If a manager panics over his slow start, acquiring Soto now could yield a return of a legitimate first-round fantasy pick.
Buy: Salvador Perez
Despite a .235 batting average this season, Salvador Perez is a prime buy-low candidate, as his underlying metrics strongly suggest an impending rebound. His expected batting average (xBA) is currently .287, significantly higher than his actual average, indicating better contact results are likely forthcoming. Perez has been a reliable power source throughout his career, playing regularly, which is a significant advantage at the catcher position, where durability is rare. His quality of contact remains strong, with a hard-hit rate of 46.2% and a barrel rate of 12.7%, both consistent with his career norms. Notably, his home run per fly ball rate stands at just 6%, less than half of his career average of nearly 14%, indicating considerable bad luck on well-struck balls that should have cleared the fence. Taken together, these indicators suggest Perez’s value is temporarily suppressed, making him an excellent buy-low target for fantasy managers seeking consistent power and playing time from a catcher.
Buy: Bryan Reynolds
In 2025, Bryan Reynolds is posting career lows of .235 BA, .305 wOBA, and .372 SLUG, excluding the COVID 2020 season. However, his expected metrics tell a much more optimistic story, with a .279 xB), .370 xwOBA, and an impressive .521 xSLG. These gaps between his actual and expected stats, combined with career-best improvements in both chase rate (24%) and barrel rate (12%), strongly indicate a breakout is on the horizon. Reynolds has consistently hit between 24 and 27 home runs in each of the past four seasons, with batting averages ranging from .262 to .302, and there’s every reason to expect him to positively regress toward those proven production levels over the remainder of the year.
Buy: Victor Scott II
Despite underwhelming offensive production so far in 2025, Victor Scott II remains a valuable buy-low target due to his secure everyday playing time driven by elite defense. His defensive metrics back this up; he ranks among the league leaders in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA), showcasing his Gold Glove-caliber fielding in center field. Scott’s speed is a significant asset; he's already stolen 16 bases while being caught just once, and with a sprint speed in the 100th percentile, that number should continue to rise. I’m not projecting a major hitting breakout from Scott II. Still, the fact that he’s almost sure to retain every day playing time and can be acquired for virtually nothing makes him an appealing target for managers in need of steals. Even better, one thing he does relatively well at the plate is draw walks; his walk rate sits at a respectable 9.1%, which not only enhances his real-life and fantasy profile but also increases his chances to steal. Offensively, anything he contributes beyond stolen bases is a bonus, but the speed and opportunity are already enough to make him a sneaky add.
Sells
Sell: Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi’s 3.23 ERA might suggest he's a stable fantasy starter, but the underlying metrics paint a different picture. During the preseason, when I picked Kikuchi as an undervalued target, I was excited about his strong 11.4 K/9 in Houston the previous year. I advised you to bank on that, while holding your nose through a probable subpar WHIP. What I didn’t expect was his K/9 dropping to 8.1 and his BB/9 more than doubling to a concerning 5.2. He’s showing an evident lack of control, and his batted ball data backs that up; he’s allowing a .357 xwOBA, a 40.8% hard-hit rate, and a 9.2% barrel rate. Even more telling is his 4.93 xERA, a full run and a half higher than his actual ERA. Somehow, through all of this, he’s posting the lowest ERA of his career so far, but Kikuchi is clearly overperforming, and the signs of regression are flashing red. Now’s the time to sell high before his ratios correct and his value drops.
Sell: Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh is having a sensational 2025 season, leading all of baseball with 23 home runs and posting a 1.002 OPS. Statcast backs up the power surge: he ranks in the 99th percentile in barrel rate (23.5%), 79th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.3%), and 89th percentile in average exit velocity (92.4 mph). But while the power is real, this might be the perfect time to sell high. Raleigh is so far ahead of the next-best catcher in fantasy that if you have a serviceable replacement, you could flip him for a top-tier pitcher or impact bat at a position where you're hurting. It’s worth noting that his batted-ball metrics were similarly strong last year, yet they translated to just 34 home runs. This isn’t to say Raleigh is going to collapse; his growth is legitimate, but it’s unreasonable to expect him to maintain a 60+ homer pace. Believe it or not, Baseball Savant’s expected home run chart shows he should have six fewer home runs than he currently does. His 28.0% strikeout rate and inconsistent batting average history (including sub-.200 months throughout 2024) suggest regression is likely, especially given the grind of catching every day. With his value at an all-time high, capitalizing on that could be the most brilliant move you make all season.
Sell: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) has been one of the most electrifying players in baseball this season, showcasing elite speed, Gold Glove-caliber defense, and a real surprise of consistent power. Offensively, he's delivering impressive numbers: a .276 BA, .552 SLG, 15 home runs, and 21 stolen bases through 61 games. However, a closer examination of his underlying metrics suggests that his current offensive production may not be sustainable. While his barrel rate is an impressive 13.6%, indicating he's making solid contact, his average exit velocity stands at 89.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate is 42.4%, both around league average. Plate discipline is another area of concern. PCA's walk rate is a modest 5.0%, while his strikeout rate is a high 26.0%. Such a profile, limited walks combined with a high strikeout rate, can lead to prolonged slumps, especially as pitchers adjust to his tendencies. In fantasy baseball, while his speed ensures continued value through stolen bases, his other offensive stats may be poised for a downturn. Given the current hype and his standout defensive contributions, now might be an opportune time to sell high on PCA, mainly if you can acquire a more consistent offensive asset in return.
