Fantasy Tyrants DFS Brief 

Your ruthless roadmap to DFS conquest - July 28th, 2025

Slate Snapshot  

• Slate:
• Main Slate: 12 Games
• Turbo (6:35): 3 Games

• Late Night (9:38): 4 Games

• Notable Lines:
• Guardians -276 (Slade Cecconi)

• Astros -267 (Framber Valdez)

• Phillies -226 (Christopher Sanchez)

• Weather Watch:
• No likely weather impact today
  
  

Highest/Lowest Implied Run Totals 

Weather Impact

• No likely weather impact today
  
  
  

Stack Breakdowns

Chalk Stack: Mariners  

Seattle gets a massive venue upgrade tonight, moving from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park to cozy Sutter Health Park, where fly balls don't just hang, they fly. Game-time temps will be in the mid-80s with a breeze out to the outfield, and that’s bad news for JP Sears.

The lefty hasn’t exactly found his footing since the A’s relocated. At home, Sears owns an ugly 4.86 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, and a gaudy 2.70 HR/9 with a 55.3% fly-ball rate. His numbers on the road are slightly better, but the trend is clear: right-handed bats feast. Since the start of 2024, Sears has allowed a .210 ISO to righties while striking them out just 17.9% of the time.

Seattle has the exact type of lineup to punish a fly-ball-prone lefty. Julio Rodríguez has rediscovered his rhythm, boasting a 127 wRC+ vs LHP and elite power/speed upside. He’s priced up, but the matchup justifies it. Cal Raleigh is nuclear vs. lefties this year, a 225 wRC+, with his usual pull-heavy power profile lining up perfectly for the park conditions. Randy Arozarena has quietly mashed lefties with a 153 wRC+, and the move to the Pacific Northwest has come with a power surge. Mitch Garver (119 wRC+ vs LHP) makes for a sharp pivot off Raleigh in large-field GPPs. His .192 ISO and double-digit walk rate give him multiple paths to fantasy production. Dylan Moore is your cheap stack glue. He’s been solid against lefties and offers multi-position eligibility on most sites. He’s a nice way to balance cost while retaining upside.

Even with sites bumping salaries on the core Mariners, the pricing isn’t prohibitive, especially with value options like Moore and Garver rounding things out. If you're stacking late, Seattle offers both leverage and upside in a matchup that checks every box, bad pitcher, bad bullpen, hot weather, and a sneaky-good lineup that’s mostly right-handed.

GPP Stack: Braves  

Rich Hill is 45 years old. That’s not a joke or a narrative angle, it’s just a fact. Over the last three seasons, he’s posted a 5.07 ERA. This year, he put up a 5.36 ERA in Triple-A before the Royals, in full desperation mode, called him up to plug a hole. In his first MLB start of 2025, he gave up six hits and two walks while striking out exactly one batter. Five of those hits came off righties. 

Enter Atlanta, a team that’s underwhelmed in the standings but still oozes talent. And tonight, they bring a righty-loaded lineup into a dream matchup against a pitcher who hasn’t been effective since the first Trump administration. Ronald Acuña Jr. may have only played 53 games, but he’s looked plenty healthy lately with a .963 OPS over the last three weeks. He’s already tallied 13 homers and 4 steals and remains one of the top fantasy point-per-game producers since entering the league. Austin Riley just returned from injury and is heating up. His career OPS against LHPs sits at .880, Rich Hill should be a welcome sight. Ozzie Albies is quietly putting together another classic Albies season: 9 homers, 9 steals, and elite splits vs. southpaws (.323 for his career). From both a floor and ceiling perspective, he’s as solid as it gets at second base. Even Travis d’Arnaud and Marcell Ozuna are in play if you're going full-on Brave mode. This is the kind of matchup where a full stack is firmly in play, and you're not worried about bullpen risk either. KC's relief corps is just as shaky as the ancient lefty starting tonight.

If you’re stacking, this is one of the clearest paths: elite right-handed bats, favorable splits, low ownership due to recency bias, and the dream target of a 45-year-old fly-ball lefty. Fire away.

Value Stack: Rangers  

Jack Kochanowicz is back in the majors, which means it’s time to stack against him. The Angels righty brings a brutal 6.03 ERA and 1.63 WHIP into this start, backed by equally ugly indicators, a 4.97 SIERA and 4.99 xERA that confirm this isn’t just bad luck. He’s been especially vulnerable to lefties, coughing up a .383 wOBA and 2.08 HR/9 to them this season.

Texas has already hammered him twice this year, tagging him for 14 earned runs and a 2.73 WHIP in just two starts. There’s no reason to expect anything different this time around. The Rangers' bats are heating up, too. They are winners of 9 of their last 10, mainly on the back of a revived offense that looks more like the 2023 version we remember. And unlike the top stacks on the board, Texas offers some solid salary relief options to help fit premium arms.

Corey Seager (145 wRC+ vs RHP): The anchor. He’s in midseason form and has the platoon edge against a homer-prone righty. Marcus Semien has been sneaky-good recently, .283/.355/.866 slash over his last 48 games and is always a threat to fill the stat sheet. Adolis García has been quietly improving with a .745 OPS over his last 21 games, and his power-speed combo is still in play. Josh Smith (137 wRC+ vs RHP) is still underpriced for the production, and he’s one of the best lefty-on-righty targets in the lineup. Evan Carter (118 wRC+) is another lefty with pop, especially intriguing in multi-entry builds.
Joc Pederson can be your salary-saver special. He was just activated, and has a career .831 OPS vs. righties. If he’s hitting in the heart of the order, he’s a no-brainer GPP play.

Whether you're full-stacking or mini-stacking around Seager, this is the kind of soft-spot matchup where you can bet on power from the left side and round it out with well-priced complementary bats. Kochanowicz hasn’t shown anything to scare us off, let's keep riding the Rangers’ resurgence.

Pitching Pillars  

Safest Bet: Christopher Sanchez 

• Fan Duel: $10,900
• DraftKings: $10,500
• Exposure: High 

Yes, the White Sox have somehow been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball post-break, averaging nearly 9 runs per game in their first week back. But things are beginning to normalize, just five total runs over their last two, and this still isn’t a group that strikes fear. Despite a surprising 113 wRC+ against lefties (5th-best in MLB), much of that production is untested or unsustainable. Miguel Vargas has some pop when he connects, Chase Meidroth makes decent contact, and Edgar Quero can put the bat on the ball, but none of them are established threats against a frontline southpaw like Sanchez.

And Sanchez is rolling. He’s allowed one run or fewer in six straight starts, most recently firing a complete game gem with 12 strikeouts and zero walks. He’s not just getting lucky either; Sanchez ranks 4th in SIERA (2.95), 5th in xFIP (2.75), and 15th in strikeout rate (26.7%) among qualified starters. His elite 59.6% ground ball rate and minuscule 0.56 HR/9 allowed since 2023 help reinforce the floor. He’s also given up just 19 homers in his last 305.2 innings.

Meanwhile, Luis Robert Jr. is banged up again after getting plunked on the arm and might sit, leaving journeyman Michael A. Taylor as Chicago’s most competent veteran bat. 

At -226 on the moneyline and with his current form, Sanchez checks every DFS box: high ceiling, stable floor, and a cake matchup, even if the recent surface stats from the Sox suggest otherwise.

GPP Play: Jacob deGrom  

• Fan Duel: $10,600
• DraftKings: $10,300
• Exposure: Med 

Despite his high price, deGrom gives you the best combo of floor and upside. While he may not be striking out batters at his peak levels, his propensity to go late into games offsets it. He’s averaging over 6.0 innings per start, thanks to Texas letting him work deep into games, and that’s helped him deliver one of the highest average FDS scorers of the season.

The Angels strike out more than any team in baseball and are barely league average offensively vs. righties with a 99 wRC+. They’ve also been underwhelming overall, sporting a sub-4.0 implied run total tonight. Sure, there’s always some home run risk in Anaheim, but most of the Halos' pop comes from the right side, where deGrom excels.

If you’re paying up at pitcher, start your build with deGrom. He’s not just safe, he’s still got major upside if the punchouts spike, and the matchup makes that outcome more than plausible.

Bargain Bet: Chase Burns 

• Fan Duel: $8,100
• DraftKings: $7,500
• Exposure: Low 

Starting a guy with a 6.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP against the Dodgers sounds like DFS malpractice… but dig deeper, and you’ll see the appeal. Outside of one disaster in Boston, Burns has actually scored well in every other start. That includes back-to-back 10-strikeout outings and a ridiculous 35 K’s over just 21.2 innings (that’s a 14.8 K/9 clip, if you’re counting).

Burns isn’t some fluke either; his 2.89 xFIP suggests that the ugly ERA should begin to regress as the sample grows. His 35.0% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging-strike rate are elite, and despite an inflated 11.0% walk rate and 51.9% hard-hit rate, he’s still generating fantasy points in bunches.

Yes, the Dodgers are a scary opponent in name, but the actual numbers tell a different story: they’ve lost 6 of their last 9, are hitting just .223 over the past 30 days (2nd-worst in MLB), and rank 24th in K rate, 27th in wOBA, and 28th in OPS in that same stretch. This is not the buzzsaw you might expect.

Burns is the definition of high-risk, high-reward. He could get lit up, but with this kind of strikeout upside at this price tag, he has a path to breaking the slate, even in a matchup that would scare off the field. If you need salary relief and want access to 10+ K upside, Burns is your guy. He won’t stay this cheap for long.

One-Off Offensive Hammers  

Top Batters Today Not In Stacks

• Eugenio Suarez
• DraftKings: $5,700
• FanDuel: $3,800
• Yandi Diaz
• DraftKings: $4,800
• FanDuel: $3,300
• Freddie Freeman
• DraftKings: $4,300
• FanDuel: $3,300
  
  

Best Value Hitters Today Not In Stacks

• Victor Caritini
• DraftKings: $3,500
• FanDuel: $2,900
  
  
• Thairo Estrada
• DraftKings: $3,500
• FanDuel: $2,600
  
  
• Taylor Trammell
• DraftKings: $2,200
• FanDuel: $2,400
  
  

CONTEST STRATEGY

GPP (High-Risk)

• Winning a GPP contest requires exposure to the best offenses on a slate. The best way to do this is through stacking.
• The Top stacks on a slate are often offenses with high implied run totals, and filled with players who have high ISO and wOBA. 
• Maximizing correlation is key. On each website, you should play the maximum number of players allowed in a stack.
•  Play chalk pitchers with upside for high strikeout totals. Pitchers with high K/IP have the best upside, even if they aren’t huge favorites to get a win.
• Avoid hitters against your starting pitchers in this format.
  
  

Cash (Low-Risk)

• Look to roster starting pitchers on teams with a high win probability (moneyline -150 or better if possible). 
• Maximize plate appearances, use hitters who hit in the top half of the batting order.
• Be less afraid of exposure. It is okay if many people are taking similar players to you, especially your pitchers
  
  

Bankroll

1-2 %

• Baseball has multiple slates every single day, so it is important to play the long game and not risk too much on a single contest.
• We will highlight when it is more appropriate to wager more.
  
  

TYRANT’S FINAL WORD

MAKE SURE TO CHECK OUT ASL’s DFS OPTIMIZER TO BUILD THE BEST LINEUPS POSSIBLE!

• We’re back to a big-boy slate tonight, which means options galore, and headaches if you try to get too cute. There’s no shortage of elite arms, high-total games, and sneaky value stacks, which makes lineup construction more about prioritization than desperation. Don’t feel like you have to jam in every shiny toy; instead, pick your lanes, whether that’s paying up for deGrom or pairing Sanchez with value arms like Burns, and let the bats flow from there.
• The sheer size of the slate also means leverage is everywhere. Atlanta will grab attention (rightly so) against Rich Hill, but there’s a strong case to pivot onto red-hot Mariners bats or the value-packed Rangers stack. Weather looks good, and there’s enough mid-tier pitching landmines that a few contrarian stacks could break the slate wide open.
• Tonight is about balance, building a lineup that can survive chalk while finding those 1-2 plays that vault you past the field. With so many good spots, overthinking can be the real enemy. 
• Play your best convictions, chase the upside, and remember: the Fantasy Tyrant doesn’t tiptoe through big slates, he stomps through them.