Fantasy Football Tools: The Machine - Projection Blending
Staring with projections from FantasySharks, FantasyFootball Metrics, ProFootball Focus Fantasy, and the CBS Sports Writers, the Projection Blending page uses Projection Station technology to build four complete sets of detailed player projections. You are then able to custom your own blend of these projections at the stat level before The Machine uses your league's scoring rules system to make fantasy point projections.
You are able to:
- View when each projection provider last updated their player projections at the top of the page [Figure 1]
- Sort projections for any week from high to low [Figure 1]
- Filter the list of players by position and team or free agent [Figure 1]
- Download projections into a CSV file so you can read into Excel
- View fantasy trend graphs of any player by clicking on their name [Figure 2]
- See exactly how any fantasy point projection was calculated by clicking on a fantasy point projection [Figure 3]
The table at the bottom of this page shows the type of data available from each provider and how The Machine uses it.
How Projection Blending Works
Using projections for each week, The Machine is able to optimize combinations of players that provide optimal performance on the weeks you need them most, including balancing the need to win enough games in the regular season to get to the playoffs versus the need to win all games in the playoffs.
To do this, The Machine uses detailed FantasySharks projections for every week of the season to augment projections from other providers. This gives you the best of both worlds, the details The Machine needs to make the smartest decisions, and the accuracy you need to make the best decisions!
FantasySharks provides projections for all player positions including Head Coach (HC) and individual defensive players (IDPs). All projection providers provide player projections for individual offensive players (IOP) and defense and special teams (DEF-ST).
|Projection Provider||Positions||Level of Detail||Fill In Details||Weekly Info||Weekly Extrapolation||Dynasty||Dynasty Extrapolation|
|FantasySharks||HC, IOP, DEF-ST, IDP||High||No||All Weeks||No||Yes||No|
|PFF Fantasy||IOP, DEF-ST, IDP||Basic||Yes||Current Week||Yes||No||Yes|
|FF Metrics||IOP, DEF-ST||Basic||Yes||All Weeks||No||No||Yes|
|CBS Sports||IOP,||Basic||Yes||Current Week||Yes||No||Yes|
Level of Detail: Advanced Sports Logic products support over 100 scoring rules. To support so many scoring rules we need many types of player statistics projections. Not all providers provide such detailed projections required for all the scoring rules we support. Our base provider is Fantasy Sharks. They provide all the required details.
Fill in Details: For providers that have a lower level of detail, Projection Station fills in the missing stat projections. For example, if Fantasy Sharks projects a particular running back to have 0.3 fumbles in a given week, and another provider is not projecting fumbles, Projection Station will take the ration of carries projected by the other provider versus fantasy sharks and calculate a new fumble projection based on that ratio for the other provider.
Weekly Info: Advanced Sports Logic's core technology, the season calculator, simulates each week of the season separately. Our products are able to trade off regular season wins for playoff robustness, make bye week trade offs and find player combos that compliment each other based on peak performance weeks. However, many projection providers today, only provide projections for the current week, not for all weeks of the season.
Weekly Extrapolation: Projection Station technology is able to use a base set of complete projections for all weeks to extrapolate other projections across the remaining weeks of the season. It simply uses the ratio of the current week projections between the provider and the base, as the ratio for the rest of the season.
Dynasty Projections: Projection Station gets 3 years of complete player projections from Fantasy Sharks. At this time, they are the only projection provider we know of doing this sort of work.
Dynasty Extrapolation: Using a similar technology to the weekly extrapolation, Projection Station is able to take the base projections from Fantasy Sharks, and use the ratio of the provider and the base, to extrapolate future year projections for all providers.